Unrest across Iran has claimed the lives of more than 500 people, according to a US-based rights group, as Tehran warned it could target American military bases if President Donald Trump acts on his repeated threats to intervene in support of protesters.
The protests, which began on December 28 in response to soaring prices, have rapidly evolved into the most significant demonstrations against the clerical establishment since 2022. President Trump has repeatedly signaled willingness to support protesters, prompting sharp warnings from Iranian officials.
According to HRANA, a US-based rights group that collects information from activists inside and outside Iran, authorities have killed at least 490 protesters, while 48 security personnel have also died. More than 10,600 people have been arrested. Reuters has not independently verified these figures.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former commander of the elite Revolutionary Guards, issued a stark warning to the United States in parliament on Sunday. “Let us be clear: in the case of an attack on Iran, the occupied territories [Israel] as well as all US bases and ships will be our legitimate target,” Qalibaf said, underscoring Tehran’s willingness to escalate militarily if threatened.
Authorities have accused the United States and Israel of instigating unrest, framing the protests as part of a foreign-led plot to destabilize the Islamic Republic. Iranian police chief Ahmad-Reza Radan said security forces had intensified operations to confront what he described as “rioters.”
Efforts to report from Iran have been complicated by a nationwide internet blackout that began Thursday, cutting off much of the outside world from real-time developments. Despite the communications blackout, footage shared on social media Saturday showed large crowds marching through Tehran at night, clapping and chanting. In Mashhad, videos showed smoke rising from street fires, masked protesters, debris-strewn roads, and explosions in the background. Reuters verified the footage’s locations.
State television aired images of body bags at Tehran’s coroner’s office, describing the deceased as victims of “armed terrorists.” The state’s narrative emphasized the government’s framing of protesters as violent agitators rather than participants in a political uprising. Funeral processions for security personnel killed in the protests have also been broadcast across cities such as Gachsaran, Yasuj, Isfahan, and Kermanshah.
Israel, which fought a brief 12-day conflict with Iran last June, is closely monitoring the situation. Three Israeli sources involved in security consultations over the weekend said the country remains on high alert for any potential US-led intervention. An Israeli military official told Reuters that while the protests were an internal Iranian matter, Israel was prepared to respond “with power if need be.”
The unrest comes as Iran continues to recover from the aftermath of last year’s war with Israel and faces a weakened regional position, with traditional allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon impacted by fallout from Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned foreign interference in a televised interview, accusing the United States and Israel of orchestrating “terrorists…who set mosques on fire…attack banks, and public properties.” He urged families to prevent their children from joining the protests, while asserting that the government was willing to listen to citizens and address economic grievances.
Analysts suggest the protests, while significant, are unlikely to overthrow the ruling establishment. Alan Eyre, a former US diplomat and Iran expert, told Reuters, “It is more likely that the authorities eventually suppress the protests, but they emerge from the process far weaker.” He noted that Iran’s elite still appears cohesive, and there is no organized opposition capable of seizing power.
Exiled opposition figures have praised the courage of Iranian protesters. Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s last shah, called the demonstrations “indescribably brave” and encouraged Iranians not to abandon the streets. Maryam Rajavi, leader of the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), stated that people “have asserted control of public spaces and reshaped Iran’s political landscape.” The NCRI, also known as Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK), historically fought against the clerical rulers during the 1980s after initially joining the 1979 revolution.
On social media Saturday, Trump wrote: “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!” A phone call between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly discussed the potential for intervention in Iran.
Netanyahu, speaking during a cabinet meeting, said Israel was closely monitoring developments but emphasized that the situation remained primarily an internal Iranian matter. “We all hope that the Persian nation will soon be freed from the yoke of tyranny,” he said.
As Iran grapples with domestic unrest, economic pressures, and the shadow of last year’s regional conflicts, the country faces one of its most volatile periods in decades. The combination of economic hardship, generational discontent, and perceived external threats has created a volatile environment, leaving both the Iranian government and foreign powers navigating a precarious situation with global ramifications.
