As the dust settles on the U.S. presidential election, Iran’s leadership expressed cautious optimism over Donald Trump’s unexpected return to the White House. After defeating incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday, Trump’s victory has triggered speculation over possible shifts in U.S.-Iran relations, especially as the two countries have a tumultuous history and tense recent past.
In a carefully worded statement, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, emphasized that Trump’s re-election could present “an opportunity for the United States to reassess past wrong policies.” Baghaei’s remarks, quoted by the state-run news agency IRNA, underscore Iran’s stance that a reset in diplomatic relations is possible, although Tehran remains skeptical due to longstanding tensions and previous actions taken by Trump during his first term.
The strained relationship between Iran and the United States traces back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, a historic upheaval that deposed the U.S.-backed shah and established the Islamic Republic. Since then, the two nations have remained ideological and political adversaries, with tensions fluctuating based on changing administrations and policies in Washington.
The first half of Trump’s presidency, from 2017 to 2021, was marked by what many Iranian leaders termed “extreme hostility.” Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018—a multilateral nuclear deal signed in 2015 between Iran, the United States, and other world powers—significantly intensified hostilities. Following his withdrawal, Trump pursued a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, reinstating and increasing sanctions that crippled Iran’s economy. Iranian officials accused the U.S. administration of undermining Iran’s sovereignty and worsening humanitarian conditions for Iranian citizens.
The situation further escalated in January 2020, when Trump ordered a drone strike that killed Major General Qasem Soleimani, a prominent figure in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), at Baghdad International Airport. The killing sparked outrage in Iran, leading to promises of retaliation and fears of military escalation. As Trump now prepares to return to office, many in Iran fear a potential continuation of the previous administration’s hardline policies.
While the Iranian government has consistently maintained a stance of resilience against U.S. influence, their rhetoric surrounding Trump’s victory reflects a more nuanced position. Baghaei pointed to the “bitter experiences” from past U.S. policies, calling for Washington to reconsider its approach. He characterized the current moment as a rare “chance” for the U.S. to avoid “previous wrong policies.”
A similar sentiment was echoed by Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani, who, prior to Trump’s victory, dismissed the relevance of the U.S. election to Iran’s future. “The general policies of the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are fixed,” she stated, adding that irrespective of the U.S. president, Iran’s government has contingency plans “so that there is no change in people’s livelihood.” This statement underscores Iran’s intention to shield its economy and citizens from the effects of unpredictable U.S. policy shifts, regardless of who holds the Oval Office.
During his first term, Trump’s approach to Iran was characterized by stringent economic and diplomatic pressures. After pulling the United States out of the JCPOA in 2018, his administration reinstated extensive sanctions on Iran’s oil, banking, and industrial sectors. These sanctions crippled Iran’s economy, leading to soaring inflation and unemployment and a dramatic decrease in oil exports.
Iranian leadership labeled these sanctions as “economic terrorism,” claiming they caused unnecessary suffering for ordinary Iranian citizens and hindered access to essential goods, including medications. Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign aimed to coerce Iran into negotiating a more stringent deal, addressing not only its nuclear ambitions but also its missile program and regional influence. Tehran, however, stood its ground, refusing to engage in further talks unless the sanctions were lifted.
The culmination of Trump’s policy toward Iran came in January 2020 with the targeted killing of General Qasem Soleimani. The airstrike heightened tensions to an unprecedented level, leading to retaliatory missile strikes from Iran on U.S. bases in Iraq and a general escalation in military posturing in the region. The incident left both countries on the brink of direct conflict, and despite temporary de-escalation, the underlying animosities remained.
As Trump’s second term approaches, analysts are speculating on the direction U.S.-Iran relations will take. Trump has frequently signaled his willingness to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Iran, though his previous stance on such matters has led to mixed interpretations of his intentions. His initial promise to reach a “better deal” than the JCPOA was aimed at satisfying both domestic constituencies and allies in the Middle East, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia, who oppose Iran’s influence in the region.
In Iran, some factions hope that Trump’s unpredictable style might open doors for a new form of diplomatic engagement. However, many officials remain wary of renewed hostilities. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei voiced these concerns, urging the United States to shift its focus away from “unilateral measures” and seek a path grounded in “mutual respect.”
For Iran, any reconsideration of Trump’s previous “maximum pressure” policy would likely be seen as a constructive step toward rebuilding diplomatic bridges. Still, it is unclear whether Trump’s second term will involve easing sanctions, especially given that both countries have deep-seated mistrust toward each other’s political establishments.
Iran’s emphasis on resilience underscores a key element of its domestic policy: developing a “resistance economy.” This approach, encouraged by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, involves reducing reliance on foreign goods and fostering self-sufficiency within the nation. Over recent years, Iran has expanded its domestic industries and explored new international markets to circumvent U.S.-imposed economic restrictions.
Iran’s leaders assert that the nation’s economy is resilient enough to withstand any external pressures from the U.S. In her recent statement, Mohajerani emphasized that Iranian policymakers have already made provisions to ensure that “there is no change in people’s livelihood,” regardless of shifts in U.S. leadership. This statement reflects Iran’s commitment to strengthening its internal economy as a countermeasure to foreign sanctions, which have historically impacted the nation’s currency and essential goods supply.
Additionally, Iran has broadened its network of economic partnerships, most notably with China and Russia, in an effort to counterbalance U.S. influence in the global market. Agreements such as the 25-year comprehensive cooperation plan with China represent Iran’s strategic pivot toward the East, allowing it to bypass certain Western economic barriers.
Trump’s second term could also affect the delicate balance of power in the Middle East, where Iran exerts significant influence, particularly in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. Trump’s previous administration pursued policies to counter Iran’s presence in these regions, often in coordination with allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iranian officials believe that Trump’s past actions, including the designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization, were calculated moves to delegitimize Iran’s regional influence.
For Iran, the return of Trump to the White House signals potential challenges in consolidating its influence across the Middle East. The possibility of renewed U.S. military engagement and economic pressure remains a point of contention, particularly as regional powers like Israel express heightened security concerns. Iranian officials have vowed to maintain their presence and protect their interests in the region, regardless of U.S. policy shifts.
