In a stark escalation of rhetoric underscoring the increasingly combustible dynamics of the Middle East, Iran has issued a direct threat to launch long-range ballistic missile and kamikaze drone strikes against the U.S.-U.K. joint military base on Diego Garcia—a strategically pivotal outpost in the Indian Ocean—should Washington initiate military action against the Islamic Republic.
Tehran’s state-affiliated media outlets have detailed its readiness to unleash a precision strike on Diego Garcia, which lies more than 5,200 kilometers from Iranian territory. Central to this threat is Iran’s growing inventory of strategic strike assets, particularly the Khorramshahr medium-range ballistic missile and the newly enhanced Shahed-136B loitering munition—both capable of traversing long distances to strike hardened targets deep within the Indo-Pacific battlespace.
The Shahed-136B, a significant upgrade over its predecessor, now boasts a range of up to 4,000 kilometers. With its small radar cross-section, low flight profile, and low-cost production, the drone exemplifies Iran’s asymmetric warfare doctrine—designed to saturate and overwhelm advanced missile defense systems. Meanwhile, the Khorramshahr missile, reportedly based on North Korea’s Musudan (BM-25) and tracing its lineage to the Soviet-era R-27 SLBM (SS-N-6 ‘Serb’), has evolved into a cornerstone of Iran’s strategic deterrent. It is believed to carry a 1,500 kg payload and is capable of targeting regional and extra-regional U.S. assets with both conventional and unconventional warheads.
During a fiery Al-Quds Day address, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned, “The Americans are fully aware of their vulnerabilities. Should they dare to breach Iran’s borders, it will be akin to igniting a fuse in a powder keg. The entire region will erupt. Their bases—and those of their allies—will no longer be safe.”
Qalibaf’s statement, laced with strategic ambiguity, is widely interpreted as a signal that U.S. and allied military installations across the Gulf, Levant, and Horn of Africa could be subjected to Iran’s expanding long-range strike portfolio in the event of hostilities. The Khorramshahr missile represents the culmination of years of reverse-engineering and iterative testing. Originally tested in 2007 following Tehran’s acquisition of up to 18 Musudan systems from Pyongyang in 2005, the platform underwent significant modifications to improve accuracy, survivability, and range—culminating in the current variant capable of traversing vast maritime expanses to reach targets such as Diego Garcia.
The atoll itself—part of the British-controlled Chagos Archipelago—is a critical node in America’s global power projection architecture. Leased to the United States since the Cold War, Diego Garcia hosts a suite of strategic capabilities: a 12,000-foot runway accommodating B-52s, B-2 stealth bombers, and C-17 transport aircraft; deep-water ports for aircraft carriers and submarines; and expansive prepositioned stockpiles of munitions, fuel, and warfighting materiel. Its isolation offers operational security, while its location enables strike operations across three combatant command areas: CENTCOM, AFRICOM, and INDOPACOM.
In the past 48 hours, satellite imagery and open-source intelligence have revealed a rapid and unusually large deployment of U.S. Air Force assets to Diego Garcia. At least seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers—each capable of penetrating dense anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) environments—have reportedly arrived, alongside three C-17 Globemaster transports and ten KC-135 aerial refueling tankers. The deployment was first tracked by OSINT platform IntelFrog using civilian flight path data, lending credibility to claims of impending large-scale operations. Furthermore, no fewer than 18 KC-135 tankers have been repositioned to key locations across the Pacific theatre, including Travis Air Force Base in California, Andersen AFB in Guam, and Daniel K. Inouye International Airport in Hawaii—an unmistakable sign of a major logistics build-up consistent with long-range airstrike preparations.
These movements coincide with intensifying U.S. air operations against Houthi targets in Yemen and growing tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its support for proxy forces. With Washington’s rhetoric becoming more forceful and Tehran digging in its heels, the potential for a miscalculation with global repercussions is growing more acute.
Historically, Diego Garcia has served as a springboard for American air campaigns in the Gulf War, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Its continued relevance lies not just in its infrastructure but in its strategic depth—offering a secure, hardened launch platform far from enemy reach yet close enough to enable rapid power projection. As the strategic chessboard of the Indian Ocean Region becomes increasingly contested—with China, India, and the U.S. all vying for influence—the growing militarization of Diego Garcia, combined with Iran’s missile diplomacy, points to a shifting paradigm: the long-range precision strike era is no longer dominated by superpowers alone.
Tehran, emboldened by indigenous technological advances and external partnerships, is demonstrating its ability to threaten high-value Western assets far beyond its immediate periphery. The convergence of these developments underscores the fragility of regional stability. One miscalculation, one rogue drone, or one intercepted missile could trigger a conflagration that spills beyond the Gulf—engulfing the Indian Ocean and shaking the foundations of international security architecture.
