In a strategic defense collaboration, Iran has reportedly secured Russian approval to domestically assemble Su-35 and Su-30 fighter jets, marking a significant leap for Iran’s air force and the nation’s aerospace industry. With both U.S.-aligned Middle Eastern nations and global defense analysts closely monitoring this development, the initiative signals a substantial shift in Iran’s military capabilities. This move is expected to reduce Iran’s reliance on aging aircraft models and bring it closer to regional air power parity.
Iran’s air force has long lagged behind its army and naval forces, constrained by a fleet of outdated jets largely acquired before the 1979 Iranian Revolution. However, with Russia’s Su-35 and Su-30 “Flanker-E” fighters now on the docket for domestic assembly, Tehran is poised to modernize and expand its air force significantly. This partnership could allow Iran to quickly acquire over 100 fourth-generation fighters—an acquisition timeline that otherwise would have been untenable.
Local production of these Russian-made jets will reportedly see between 48 and 77 Su-35s produced in Iranian facilities, potentially followed by a larger number of Su-30s. Defense experts in the region warn that this upgrade could challenge the air superiority long held by U.S.-allied states in the Middle East, like Saudi Arabia and Israel, creating a new axis of military strength and technical self-sufficiency within Iran.
Analysts have framed this collaboration within the larger context of the deepening Iran-Russia alliance, a partnership that has drawn renewed scrutiny since Iran’s support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict. Tehran’s provision of Shahed-136 drones and ballistic missiles to Russia—used in various capacities against Ukrainian forces—has strengthened military ties and appears to have been a deciding factor in Moscow’s decision to approve the fighter jet arrangement.
“Russia’s approval for local assembly of these jets in Iran is a reflection of a quid pro quo,” remarked Ali Sharif, a Middle East military analyst. “It shows the extent of Iran’s importance to Moscow in the face of economic and military pressures in Ukraine.” In exchange for support, Russia’s transfer of advanced military technology to Iran, including fighter jet blueprints and assembly rights, stands as one of the most substantial gestures yet in the two countries’ expanding defense relationship.
The prospect of a strengthened Iranian air force has sparked concern among U.S.-aligned states in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel. These countries, which have historically maintained air superiority in the region through fleets of U.S.-supplied F-15s, F-16s, and F-35s, now face the possibility of an Iranian air force equipped with advanced Su-35s—jets noted for their long-range capabilities, agility, and advanced radar systems.
Regional defense analysts suggest that with these Russian-made jets, Iran could better defend its airspace and project power across the Persian Gulf and beyond, reshaping military calculations across the region. Given the Su-35’s “4.5-generation” classification, which denotes its near-fifth-generation capabilities, the acquisition marks a substantial step up from the aging F-14 Tomcats, F-5s, and F-4 Phantoms that Iran currently operates.
In response to the news, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant expressed concern about the implications of a more modernized Iranian air force on Israel’s security. “We cannot ignore the new reality of an increasingly powerful Iranian air force equipped with advanced fighter jets, which could potentially shift the balance of power in the region,” he said, urging increased cooperation with the United States to maintain Israel’s defensive capabilities.
For Iran, the assembly project brings not only a much-needed modernization of its air capabilities but also a boost to its domestic aerospace sector. As Hayal Muzin, a prominent Iranian journalist, noted, “This is a major development for Iran’s aerospace industry. Beyond military advancements, this initiative can catalyze new job opportunities and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains.” Muzin pointed to the strategic benefits of building a local industry that could withstand sanctions and supply chain disruptions, adding that it represents an important step toward self-reliance.
Iran’s efforts to expand its aerospace industry through licensed production align with broader economic goals. With long-standing sanctions imposed by the United States and allies under initiatives like the CAATSA legislation, Iran has had to grapple with shortages of spare parts and maintenance resources for its aging aircraft. This assembly line, military sources say, could help mitigate the risk of supply disruptions and could also create several thousand technical and engineering jobs across various provinces.
Reports indicate that Iran has already commenced preparations for building the necessary infrastructure to support the assembly of these jets. Exact production numbers remain unclear, with current projections estimating between 48 and 77 Su-35s and an undisclosed number of Su-30s. These numbers could, however, expand based on how efficiently Iran can establish its facilities and overcome potential logistical hurdles.
While details regarding the Su-35 assembly schedule remain uncertain, some military experts suggest that Iran’s experience with previous licensed production—such as with its ballistic missile and drone programs—positions it well for an expedited timeline. Moreover, should production go smoothly, the Iranian Air Force could field these fighters within a few years, a timeline that would drastically shorten the path to a more advanced air fleet.
One question that remains unresolved is whether Iran will be authorized to export the domestically assembled jets. While no clear decision has been made, defense insiders believe that Russia will likely restrict sales of these jets to external clients. This limitation, they argue, reflects Russia’s interest in avoiding secondary U.S. sanctions that could disrupt its broader arms export markets. However, if circumstances change, particularly given the shifting international dynamics, Iran could explore offering these jets to select allied nations as a future revenue stream.
The potential for Iranian exports of Russian technology raises the stakes in the regional arms race, particularly as nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have sought to bolster their air capabilities. Defense experts argue that if Iran can replicate the success of its drone export program, it could significantly impact the defense landscape in the Middle East and create fresh competition in global arms markets.
The Su-35 and Su-30 models are both highly regarded for their combat prowess, maneuverability, and avionics. The Su-35, in particular, has features that distinguish it from many fourth-generation fighters:
- Thrust Vectoring: The Su-35’s thrust-vectoring engines provide superior maneuverability, giving it an advantage in dogfights and evasion.
- Advanced Radar Systems: Equipped with the Irbis-E radar, the Su-35 can track multiple targets at once, a capability that surpasses many of its counterparts.
- Extended Range: With an operational range that allows it to cover significant areas without refueling, the Su-35 is well-suited for the vast expanse of the Persian Gulf region.
In addition to the Su-35, the Su-30 model offers Iran a versatile and multirole fighter. Known for its range and payload flexibility, the Su-30 can perform air superiority missions, ground strikes, and reconnaissance, making it a valuable complement to the Su-35 in terms of both tactical diversity and strategic coverage.
The United States has already expressed concern over Iran’s plans to strengthen its military capabilities, particularly through Russian support. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, U.S.-imposed sanctions under CAATSA have targeted countries buying advanced Russian defense equipment. This was notably seen in Egypt’s canceled purchase of 24 Su-35s after the U.S. threatened sanctions. While no formal statements have been made regarding potential actions against Iran, Washington’s policymakers are expected to closely monitor Iran’s new jet assembly project.
Defense analysts argue that the U.S. may consider tightening sanctions or increasing military support to allied nations in the Gulf as a countermeasure. With American-built F-15, F-16, and F-35 jets forming the backbone of air fleets in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel, the Pentagon is likely to prioritize maintaining its allies’ air superiority in the face of Iran’s expanding capabilities.
Iran’s current air force is a patchwork of aging jets from the Shah’s pro-Western era, including U.S.-made F-4 Phantoms, F-14 Tomcats, and F-5 Tigers. Due to sanctions, Iran has faced persistent challenges in maintaining these aircraft, often resorting to reverse engineering and local modifications to keep them operational. Alongside American models, Iran’s air force includes Russian MiG-29s, French Mirage jets, and a limited number of Chinese F-7s, all of which reflect a varied and aging inventory.
The shift toward modern, indigenously assembled Su-35 and Su-30 fighters marks a turning point for Tehran, as it transitions from a reliance on outdated models to a fleet capable of competing with regional adversaries. With modern fighters, Iran is expected to better counter regional air defenses, establish a stronger deterrent presence, and gain a firmer foothold in Middle Eastern airspace.
As Iran embarks on its fighter jet production journey, the Middle East’s military balance is undergoing an evolution that will likely influence diplomatic and military strategies among all regional actors. With the potential for Iranian air capabilities to approach parity with its adversaries, Tehran may feel emboldened in regional engagements.
Whether this collaboration with Russia will extend beyond fighter jets remains a key question. Middle Eastern and Western defense officials are watching closely to see if Moscow and Tehran will pursue further cooperation in areas like missile technology, air defense systems, or naval capabilities.
Iran’s new era of air power, built on its evolving relationship with Russia, signals a strategic shift that could redefine its role in the region. For Tehran, assembling these jets represents not just a leap in military capability, but a pivotal step in asserting its sovereignty and resilience amidst global tensions.
