- From the Strait of Hormuz to the Donbas: How the U.S.–Israel War on Iran Could Tilt the Ukraine War
The escalating confrontation between the United States, Israel and Iran is rapidly transforming the global strategic landscape, sending shockwaves far beyond the Middle East. What began as a series of military strikes against Iranian targets has evolved into a broader geopolitical crisis, affecting global energy markets, military supply chains and the trajectory of other conflicts — most notably the war in Ukraine.
At the centre of this shifting geopolitical equation is Russia. As global attention pivots toward the unfolding confrontation with Iran, Moscow may find itself unexpectedly benefiting from the crisis. Rising oil prices, shifting energy flows and the diversion of Western political and military resources are combining to create conditions that could strengthen Russia’s position as the war in Ukraine enters a decisive new phase.
Nearly five years after the conflict began, the Russia-Ukraine war has evolved into a grinding war of attrition. Both sides have suffered staggering losses, and the outcome increasingly depends not only on battlefield performance but on economic resilience, international alliances and access to critical resources.
Now, the widening Middle East conflict threatens to reshape those calculations.
The American and Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities — and the retaliatory actions that followed — have triggered a complex and dangerous cycle of escalation across the region. Iran has responded with a strategy that blends military retaliation, economic pressure and asymmetric warfare.
Among its most consequential moves has been targeting American military installations and allied assets across the Middle East. At the same time, Tehran has deployed drones and missiles against regional infrastructure while encouraging allied militia groups to increase pressure on U.S. partners.
One of Iran’s most dramatic responses has been shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes.
The closure immediately sent shockwaves through global energy markets.
Oil prices surged as traders feared prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern supply routes. Insurance costs for shipping tankers spiked, and energy-importing nations scrambled to secure alternative supplies.
The consequences of that disruption extend far beyond the Persian Gulf.
Energy markets are often the first indicator of geopolitical shocks, and the current crisis has proven no exception.
With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted, global oil supplies have tightened dramatically. The impact is especially severe for Asian economies, which rely heavily on Middle Eastern crude transported through the narrow waterway.
Countries across East and South Asia now face the challenge of replacing lost supply while preventing domestic energy costs from spiraling.
In the short term, the most readily available alternative source of oil is Russia.
Despite years of Western sanctions aimed at restricting Russian energy exports following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has continued to sell large volumes of oil through a network of intermediaries and shipping companies often described as a “shadow fleet.”
These tankers operate outside Western insurance systems and frequently obscure the origin of cargo, allowing Russia to bypass price caps imposed by the United States and its allies.
As Middle Eastern supplies tighten, demand for Russian oil is likely to increase significantly.
China, India and several other Asian economies are expected to expand purchases of discounted Russian crude to shield their economies from the shock created by the Iran crisis.
The result is a surge in revenue for Moscow — at precisely the moment when the Russian government needs it most.
For the Kremlin, energy exports remain the backbone of the national economy.
Oil and gas revenues provide a critical portion of Russia’s federal budget and finance much of its military spending. Since the start of the Ukraine war, Western sanctions have aimed to weaken this financial foundation by restricting Russian access to energy markets.
Those efforts have had measurable effects. Analysts estimate that the share of Russian government revenue derived from oil fell in 2025 to its lowest level in more than five years.
Yet the sudden upheaval in the Middle East could reverse that trend.
Higher global oil prices automatically increase Russia’s earnings from each barrel sold. Even when Russian crude is discounted relative to global benchmarks, the overall revenue generated from higher prices can still rise significantly.
For Vladimir Putin, this development offers a rare economic advantage amid the pressures of a prolonged war.
The Russian president faces the difficult task of sustaining both the battlefield campaign and domestic political stability. Maintaining the loyalty of Russia’s political elites and oligarchs — while preventing economic collapse — has become one of the Kremlin’s central strategic priorities.
Rising oil revenues could help alleviate those pressures.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has now entered its fifth year, making it one of the longest and most destructive conflicts in modern European history.
Military analysts increasingly describe the conflict as a war of attrition, in which victory depends on which side can endure the longest — economically, militarily and politically.
Casualties have been enormous.
One U.S. think tank estimates that Russian forces have suffered more than 1.2 million casualties since the war began, including killed, wounded and missing. Ukraine’s losses are also believed to be severe, though Kyiv has released far fewer official figures.
Such staggering casualty numbers have forced Russia to adopt unconventional recruitment methods. Reports indicate that the Russian military has increasingly relied on foreign fighters and irregular recruitment networks.
Among the most controversial developments has been the reported deployment of soldiers from North Korea, as well as recruitment campaigns targeting individuals in Africa and Asia.
These measures highlight the immense strain the war has placed on Russia’s manpower resources.
Yet despite these losses, the Kremlin has managed to keep its war machine running — largely thanks to the country’s ability to continue generating energy revenue.
Beyond economics, the war with Iran is also altering the geopolitical focus of Western governments.
For the United States and its allies, strategic attention is a finite resource. Military planners, intelligence agencies and political leaders must divide their focus among multiple crises.
The escalating confrontation with Iran threatens to absorb a significant portion of that attention.
For Moscow, this diversion could be strategically valuable.
As global headlines increasingly concentrate on the Middle East, the war in Ukraine risks fading from the centre of international debate. That shift could reduce the political urgency that has sustained Western support for Kyiv.
Russia has long sought to outlast Ukraine’s allies, betting that public fatigue and competing crises would eventually weaken the coalition backing Kyiv.
The Iran conflict may accelerate that process.
Another critical factor shaping the conflict is the strain on Western military stockpiles.
The United States has supplied Ukraine with vast quantities of weapons since the war began, including artillery shells, air-defense systems and precision-guided munitions.
However, America’s bombing campaign against Iranian targets is now consuming significant quantities of those same weapons.
Reports indicate that U.S. stockpiles of certain munitions are already under pressure.
Donald Trump, who returned to office after the 2024 election, has publicly blamed his predecessor Joe Biden for failing to replenish American military inventories.
Whether that claim is accurate or politically motivated, the reality remains that ongoing operations in the Middle East require substantial resources.
If the Iran conflict expands, Washington may be forced to prioritize its own military needs over those of Ukraine.
The strain on U.S. stockpiles has another implication: Europe’s dependence on American arms production.
Although European nations have increased defense spending since the Ukraine war began, the continent’s arms industry remains far smaller than that of the United States.
As a result, many European governments still rely on purchasing American-made weapons for Ukraine.
If U.S. production lines become fully committed to replenishing American stockpiles or supporting operations against Iran, the supply of weapons available to Ukraine could shrink.
Such a development would create serious challenges for Kyiv’s war effort.
Ironically, however, the Iran conflict has also highlighted a capability where Ukraine holds a distinct advantage.
Iran’s strategy relies heavily on large numbers of relatively inexpensive drones. While American and Gulf air defenses have intercepted many of these systems, doing so has proven extremely costly.
Each intercepted drone often requires expensive interceptor missiles — sometimes costing dozens of times more than the drone itself.
The imbalance illustrates a growing reality of modern warfare: quantity and affordability can sometimes overwhelm technologically superior systems.
Ukraine has spent years adapting to this dynamic.
Since the start of the war with Russia, Ukrainian forces have pioneered innovative approaches to drone warfare, using both reconnaissance and attack drones on a massive scale.
Ukrainian engineers have also developed sophisticated counter-drone technologies, electronic warfare systems and battlefield adaptations.
These innovations have attracted increasing attention within NATO.
During a large war-game exercise held in Estonia in 2025, Ukrainian units reportedly demonstrated advanced drone tactics that outperformed several NATO counterparts.
The exercise highlighted how the Ukrainian military has evolved into one of the world’s most experienced practitioners of drone warfare.
That expertise is now drawing interest from Washington.
Facing the challenge of countering Iran’s drone attacks, the United States has reportedly sought technical insights from Ukraine on drone defense strategies and battlefield integration.
For Kyiv, this request presents a strategic opportunity.
By sharing expertise and strengthening military cooperation, Ukraine could reinforce its importance to Washington at a time when global attention is shifting elsewhere.
The convergence of the Iran crisis and the war in Ukraine illustrates how modern conflicts rarely remain isolated.
Military confrontations in one region can rapidly influence events thousands of kilometers away through economic shocks, strategic distractions and shifting alliances.
For Russia, the turmoil in the Middle East may provide economic relief and geopolitical breathing space.
For Ukraine, it represents both a risk and an opportunity: a risk that Western support could weaken, but an opportunity to demonstrate its growing military expertise.
For the United States and its allies, the challenge lies in managing multiple crises simultaneously without allowing one conflict to undermine efforts in another.
As tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, the global consequences remain unpredictable.
Energy markets, military supply chains and diplomatic alliances are all shifting in response to the unfolding crisis.
What is clear, however, is that the war with Iran is already reshaping the strategic environment of the Ukraine conflict.
Whether that shift ultimately strengthens Russia’s position — or forces new forms of cooperation among Western allies — will depend on how governments respond in the coming months.
For now, the intersection of these wars has created a volatile new phase in global geopolitics.
And in that uncertain landscape, the battlefields of Ukraine and the Persian Gulf may prove far more interconnected than anyone anticipated.
