Tensions in the Gulf are rapidly escalating as Iran issues a pointed warning to nighboring countries: U.S. military installations on their soil could be in the crosshairs if a broader conflict erupts. The threat, delivered through a senior Iranian official speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, comes amid a renewed impasse over nuclear negotiations and an uptick in regional military posturing.
At the heart of the standoff is Iran’s refusal to engage directly with Washington, despite overtures from the United States, including a recent letter from former President Donald Trump to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran, while unwilling to sit face-to-face with American negotiators, remains open to indirect messaging through intermediaries such as Oman.
But even those back channels appear fraught with uncertainty. According to the Iranian official, Tehran sees indirect communication as a way to test Washington’s sincerity. “This is not about theatrics or optics,” the official said. “It’s about whether the U.S. is genuinely prepared to move toward a fair agreement. The path forward will be rocky unless they show real commitment to Iran’s proposals.”
Iran’s warning to its neighbors is not just diplomatic posturing—it’s a strategic signal. The message is clear: the next conflict, should it erupt, will not be contained to Iranian territory or American assets alone. Any country hosting U.S. military bases could find itself implicated.
“Those hosting American bases should consider the risks,” the official said, in what analysts view as a thinly veiled reference to countries like Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait—all of which maintain close military ties with the United States and host various levels of American troop deployments and infrastructure.
The implication is that Iran may extend the battlefield beyond direct U.S.-Iranian engagement if it perceives that regional actors are enabling hostile operations from their territory. This represents a shift from previous rhetoric, which largely confined Iran’s threats to American targets.
This escalation comes as Iran’s armed forces move to a higher state of readiness, following direct orders from Ayatollah Khamenei. The Iranian military has reportedly begun repositioning missile systems and increasing surveillance across strategic corridors, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.
Western intelligence sources confirm these developments. Satellite imagery and signal intercepts have detected increased military activity near key Iranian facilities. “The readiness posture of Iranian forces has clearly shifted,” said a senior intelligence analyst based in Europe. “They’re signaling deterrence, but the potential for miscalculation is growing.”
U.S. officials, speaking on background, echoed similar concerns. “We’re watching this closely,” one senior Pentagon source said. “There’s no question the Iranians are flexing their capabilities.”
The Biden administration, while attempting to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in its early years, now finds itself caught between diplomatic inertia and rising threats. The Trump-era decision to withdraw from the JCPOA and impose “maximum pressure” sanctions continues to define much of the current dynamic, even years after Trump left office.
According to Axios, the letter sent by former President Trump to Ayatollah Khamenei laid out a blunt message: Iran had a choice between a diplomatic path or severe consequences. The letter reportedly offered a renewed framework for talks but included explicit warnings about the costs of further nuclear escalation.
Trump’s unorthodox diplomatic style, while criticized for its unpredictability, has left an enduring mark on U.S.-Iran relations. Iranian officials are now grappling with a shifting political landscape in Washington, where Republican lawmakers and presidential contenders are increasingly hawkish on Iran.
“Trump’s message may have been private, but its tone is consistent with his previous public posture—talk if you’re serious, or face consequences,” said Dr. Hamed Karimi, a Tehran-based political analyst. “It’s a hard sell for Iran, especially after years of sanctions and strategic distrust.”
Iran’s nuclear program remains at the center of the crisis. Despite international pressure, Tehran has continued to increase its uranium enrichment levels. Reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicate enrichment levels now exceed 60% purity, far above the 3.67% limit agreed to under the original JCPOA.
Western intelligence also believes Iran is expanding its ballistic missile network, with increased deployments observed in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. This expansion is viewed by Washington and its allies as a direct threat not only to Israel but to broader U.S. interests in the region.
Tehran insists its program is peaceful and defensive in nature, but few in the West are convinced. “Iran is playing a long game,” said an EU diplomat involved in past nuclear talks. “They’re building leverage. The more advanced their program becomes, the more difficult any new deal will be.”
With indirect talks barely alive and direct dialogue off the table, the diplomatic vacuum is widening. Oman, long a discreet mediator between Washington and Tehran, is reportedly struggling to maintain momentum.
“Backchannel diplomacy only works when there’s a modicum of trust,” said Reza Moghaddam, a former Iranian nuclear negotiator. “Right now, there’s very little of that. Iran doesn’t see Biden as reliable, and the U.S. doesn’t see Tehran as transparent.”
Both sides accuse the other of posturing. Iran points to continued U.S. sanctions and covert operations, including the 2020 assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, as evidence of American aggression. The U.S., for its part, cites Iranian attacks on commercial shipping and drone strikes by Tehran-backed militias as violations of international norms.
In this climate, even symbolic gestures are fraught. A meeting proposed by European intermediaries earlier this year fell apart after both sides insisted on preconditions the other found unacceptable.
The broader risk now is that a localized incident—perhaps a drone strike, a naval clash, or a cyberattack—could spiral into a wider war. Gulf nations are bracing for that possibility.
In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have quietly upgraded their air defense systems. Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, has increased security at key infrastructure points. Israel, always a key player in the Iran equation, has also signaled it may act unilaterally if diplomacy fails.
“The warning from Iran isn’t just for show,” said retired General Amos Yadlin, former head of Israeli military intelligence. “They’re saying that any war will be a regional war. And they have the means to make that happen.”
Inside Iran, the government is navigating its own tightrope. Economic sanctions continue to choke the economy, inflation is rampant, and public discontent simmers beneath the surface. Yet the hardline leadership remains defiant.
“The leadership believes resistance is the only path to survival,” said Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House. “They’ve calculated that compromising now would show weakness, especially after enduring years of pressure.”
Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is expanding its role in foreign policy and defense planning, often operating with a degree of independence from the civilian government. This increases the risk that military decisions may not always align with diplomatic strategy.
The Biden administration has limited options. Sanctions are already at near-maximum. Military action would risk igniting the very regional conflict it seeks to avoid. Diplomacy is paralyzed by political realities on both sides.
Iran, for its part, appears content to wait. With presidential elections looming in the U.S. and growing uncertainty about the future of American foreign policy, Tehran may see more advantage in holding out for a potentially more favorable administration.
Yet this strategy comes with risks. The longer talks stall, the closer Iran comes to crossing thresholds that Israel and the U.S. have long described as red lines. At some point, rhetorical deterrence may give way to kinetic response.
In the meantime, Iran’s message to the region stands: neutrality is no shield. As one senior Gulf official told Reuters, “We are all in the blast radius now. The question is not if, but when, the next crisis erupts.”
The Middle East stands at a dangerous crossroads. With Iran warning its neighbors, ramping up its military posture, and forging ahead with its nuclear ambitions, the space for diplomacy is shrinking. U.S. allies in the Gulf must now weigh the costs of their strategic choices—hosting American forces may provide deterrence, but it also puts them directly in the firing line.
For now, both sides continue to speak through intermediaries, with trust eroded and patience wearing thin. Whether the next chapter is one of diplomacy or conflict may depend on what happens in the shadows—through backchannels, covert moves, and decisions made far from the public eye.
