In June, Israel and the United States crossed a historic red line — launching direct strikes inside Iran, a step both had studiously avoided since the Iranian revolution of 1979. The taboo, once unthinkable, has now been shattered. And with it, a new phase of open hostility between two bitter regional adversaries has begun.
Analysts across the region warn that the next Israel–Iran war is no longer a question of if, but when. Both Tehran and Tel Aviv appear to be preparing for that eventuality, ramping up weapons production and fortifying their defenses for what could be the Middle East’s most destructive war in decades.
The June conflict — often called the “12-day war” — marked the first direct and sustained missile exchange between Israel and Iran. For years, the two had fought a shadow war through cyberattacks, assassinations, and proxy militias. But in June, missiles flew directly across the 2,300-kilometer gap separating the two nations.
The New York Times reported on November 9 that the joint U.S.–Israeli strikes failed to destroy Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. Despite extensive bombardment of Iran’s Natanz and Fordow facilities, the majority of its nuclear infrastructure survived. With diplomatic negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program stalled, regional officials and analysts now warn that a second round of open warfare is “only a matter of time.”
Israel’s leadership views Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat. The NYT report cites intelligence assessments indicating that the Israeli Air Force is already preparing for a renewed round of strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.
Rafael Grossi, the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), confirmed last week that the majority of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile survived the June attacks.
“We estimate Iran retains roughly 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent — dangerously close to weapons-grade levels,” Grossi told The Financial Times. “Without inspections, however, its precise status remains unclear.”
Grossi’s remarks underscore a grim reality: Iran’s nuclear capability remains intact enough to provoke further Israeli military action, especially if Tehran moves toward weaponization.
Iran appears to be preparing for another war — and one fought on a much larger scale.
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, told the NYT that Iranian missile factories are now operating “around the clock.” According to Vaez, “if another war breaks out, Iran hopes to fire 2,000 missiles at once to overwhelm Israeli defenses, not 500 over 12 days as they did in June.”
During that 12-day conflict, Iran launched roughly 530–550 ballistic missiles. After accounting for mid-flight failures and misfires, around 480–500 reached Israeli airspace. Israel and the U.S. intercepted between 85 and 90 percent of them — but 48 missiles penetrated Israel’s defense systems, striking urban areas and strategic sites.
The Iranian missiles destroyed an oil refinery in Haifa, damaged a hospital, a research institute, and several residential districts, and narrowly missed key airbases. The death toll reached 28 Israeli civilians — a modest figure by wartime standards, but a psychological blow to Israel’s belief in its invulnerability.
Iran’s strategy — launching massive salvos to saturate Israel’s multi-layered defense network — proved partially effective. Emboldened by those results, Tehran has since doubled down on its missile production capacity.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared last week that Iran’s missile capabilities now exceed pre-war levels. “Our missile power today far surpasses that of the 12-day war. The enemy failed to achieve its objectives and was defeated,” Araghchi said in a televised address.
Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh, Iran’s Defense Minister, echoed those claims, saying Tehran’s defense industries have not only recovered but improved. “Our defense production has advanced both in quantity and quality,” he said.
Iran’s growing partnership with China and Russia has accelerated this recovery. European intelligence sources told CNN that several shipments of sodium perchlorate — a key component of solid rocket fuel — have arrived from China at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port. Additionally, China is reportedly supplying Tehran with HQ-9 air defense systems, while Russia has delivered MiG-29 jets and may soon provide up to 48 Sukhoi Su-35 fighters, according to leaked documents from Russia’s defense conglomerate Rostec.
On the other side, Israel is racing to close the gaps in its air defense network exposed by Iran’s missile onslaught. Despite an impressive interception rate, the 12-day conflict drained Israel’s missile stockpiles at an alarming rate.
By the war’s midpoint, The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel had only 12 days’ worth of air defense missiles remaining. A senior U.S. official confirmed that the Arrow missile inventory — Israel’s top-tier anti-ballistic system — was running dangerously low.
“Neither the U.S. nor the Israelis can continue to sit and intercept missiles all day,” said Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Soon, they may have to choose which missiles to intercept.”
During the war, U.S.-operated THAAD batteries fired approximately 150 interceptors — nearly a quarter of the total THAAD missiles ever purchased by the Pentagon. This startling revelation exposed how quickly a prolonged high-intensity conflict could deplete even the world’s most advanced defense stockpiles.
The realization that a mid-sized power like Iran could nearly exhaust Israel’s and America’s missile inventories has prompted urgent policy shifts in both capitals.
In July, Israel’s Defense Ministry announced that Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amir Baram had signed new contracts to “significantly accelerate the serial production” of Arrow interceptors at Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI). “Accelerating production of the Arrow and other critical systems is essential to expand operational readiness for future campaigns,” Baram said in a statement.
In Washington, the Pentagon has established a Munitions Acceleration Council to expedite production of air defense missiles and long-range precision munitions — a direct response to the June war’s lessons.
Israel is also working to integrate a new layer of advanced air defense systems. Among them are the Arrow 4, which will replace the aging Arrow 2, and the Sky Sonic, a cutting-edge interceptor developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems to counter hypersonic missiles.
Unveiled in mid-2023, the Sky Sonic is designed for “unprecedented maneuverability and high-speed interception in the upper atmosphere.” According to Rafael, it can neutralize hypersonic threats beyond the capabilities of current systems like Iron Dome or David’s Sling.
Iran, for its part, claims to have fielded its own hypersonic missiles — the Fattah-1 and Fattah-2 — which it says can reach speeds exceeding Mach 13 and maneuver mid-flight to evade interception. Though Western analysts question these claims, the announcement alone adds another dimension of risk to any future confrontation.
For now, both sides appear to be rebuilding and recalibrating. Israel is fortifying its missile shields and replenishing its interceptors; Iran is producing more missiles and refining its nuclear materials.
But the uneasy calm may not last. Israeli intelligence agencies reportedly assess that Tehran could enrich enough uranium for a single nuclear weapon within months if it chose to. Such a development would almost certainly trigger another preemptive Israeli strike — one that could ignite a regional conflagration involving U.S. forces, Hezbollah, and Gulf allies.
As Ali Vaez warned, “If another war comes, it will be faster, larger, and far deadlier.”
For now, the Middle East stands on edge — watching two adversaries, armed to the teeth and convinced of their own survival imperative, inch closer to another war that could redraw the strategic map of the region once again.
