Iran’s internal politics are being impacted by the upcoming elections, which will determine the composition of the 12th term parliament and the Council of Experts, which is responsible for appointing the Supreme Religious Leader. The elections are the first since the protests in 2022 following the killing of activist Mahsa Amini. Some observers hope for a democratic atmosphere during the election process, but the Council of Guardians (Shuraye Negahban) has responded negatively to thousands of candidates who do not conform to the regime’s values and principles.
The main goal of the regime is to achieve high turnout in the upcoming parliamentary elections, as the 42% turnout recorded in the 2020 elections is considered the lowest since the 1979 Islamic revolution. This indicates that the legitimacy of the Majlis may decrease further due to the deepening socio-economic crisis and the regime’s increasing persecution of dissidents. A July 2023 survey revealed a 68% level of public distrust in the parliament among the population, indicating weakening social support for the regime.
Theocratic authorities aim to ensure high participation in the upcoming elections to strengthen public trust among the people. Conservative politicians, drawing inspiration from recent calls from Supreme Religious Leader Seyyed Ali Khamenei, are conducting a propaganda campaign to mobilize the population for the elections. Theocratic authorities hope to ensure high participation to strengthen public trust among the people.
The ultra-conservative Paydari party, which has a dominant position in both the parliament and government, is expected to dominate the upcoming elections. Other conservative politicians, such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Hossein Allahkaram, Mehrdad Bazrpash, and Alirza Zakani, are expected to participate under separate lists. The formation of a coalition between these parties and the Paydari party remains uncertain.
The opposition camp has been accused of pre-election manipulation, with ex-president Mohammad Hatami and reformist leaders like Mehdi Karroubi and Abdollah Nouri preferring boycotts, which can weaken the competitive environment and reduce turnout. However, 800 reformist candidates have filled out the application form for the parliamentary elections, leaving no doubt that the conservatives will win the elections and form a government on their own.
The Kayhan newspaper accused the opposition of engaging in pre-election manipulation, claiming they are hiding information about registered reformist candidates from the public. Fundamentalist politicians have accused reformist political parties of conducting coalition discussions in secret.
A secret deal between former president Hassan Rouhani and former parliament speaker Ali Larijani has been rumored, with Rouhani prioritizing the elections for the Council of Experts. Larijani is predicted to be one of the main figures of the reformist-moderate wing in the upcoming elections, and other parties representing that camp will participate in the elections as part of the alliance formed under his leadership.
The construction party, founded by former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, plans to join the elections independently, but their chances of winning a significant percentage of votes may be underestimated. The upcoming elections also test the continuation of theocratic authority, with 85-year-old Supreme Religious Leader Seyyed Ali Khamenei planning to hand over his post to one of his successors due to health problems. As the members of the Council of Experts are defined in the elections on March 1, 2024, Khamenei will focus on the formation of the ultra-conservative institution.
Khamenei faces a dilemma before the elections due to the intensifying ethnic tensions and public dissatisfaction with the hijab. He must decide whether to strengthen social support and allow reformers to control the parliament, or to allow the ideological crisis to deepen by keeping the conservative wing in the legislature with traditional methods. The second scenario could fuel distrust and antipathy towards the regime, especially on the eve of a planned transition of religious power to a successor.
The announcement of elections strengthened the possibility of the first scenario, but influential reformist figures voiced negative opinions about the election process and some boycotted the elections, predicting a minority for reformists in the 12th term of parliament. The possibility of centrist-moderate parties sharing power in parliament is also debated, but it is possible that the regime will take steps for the benefit of centrist political forces to create an impression of electoral competition.
The ongoing Israel-Hamas war may have implications on the upcoming elections, as if the war continues according to Israel’s desired scenario and a new governance system is formed in Gaza under West patronage, the trust of the ultra-right electorate towards the regime will be damaged. This expected shift in conservative voters’ views may manifest itself at the results of the elections.
