Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has spoken on the explosive situation in the Middle East, warning Israel against rash actions that may lead to repentance. Speaking at the annual joint graduation ceremony for cadets of Iran’s military academies, Khamenei warned against Israel’s “irreparable defeat” and criticized the Zionist regime for atrocities committed against Palestinians.
He argued that Israel is on the wrong path by embarking on a war against Gaza and that the Palestinian people will respond with greater determination. He also dismissed the rumours about the involvement of non-Palestinians, including Iran, in recent events as “nonsense.” Khamenei’s remarks were relayed in Hebrew to the Israeli audience. The rumours about the involvement of non-Palestinians, including Iran, are based on a lack of evidence and are likely to be a significant blow to the Palestinian people.
Iran’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has emphasized the importance of Iran’s armed forces in defending its nation and preventing the US from creating ISIS. He emphasized that Iran’s armed forces are prepared to defend the country and that the entire Islamic world is obliged to support the Palestinian nation. Khamenei stated that Israel’s defeat is irreparable and a devastating earthquake, and it is unlikely that the usurping regime will use the West’s help to repair the deep impacts left on its ruling structures.
Israel faces a serious existential crisis due to its disunity within and the irrelevance of its military prowess to meet the challenges of the hybrid war it is experiencing. Iran sees the advantage in the axis of resistance. Egypt has warned Israel about an impending large-scale attack by Hamas, but the latter failed to act on it. There is likely to be stocktaking within Israel at some point, and Prime Minister Netanyahu will be hard-pressed to explain.
The US may not dare to attack Iran due to the catastrophic consequences, but the temptation will be to roll back Hezbollah in Lebanon and destabilize the Syrian situation while Russia remains preoccupied in Ukraine. This remains a potential flashpoint for Iran, and Tehran will remain vigilant to prevent losing ground in the Levant. The US and Israel are confronting a vastly different Iran than they have been used to since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Iran has successfully overcome Western sanctions and joined the BRICS community, allowing it to move to the next phase of development and expand its global presence. Iran is a threshold state in its nuclear weapon programme, enjoying strong relationships with Russia and China and can tilt the balance in West Asia and neighbouring regions. The easing of conflict situations in Yemen and Syria creates space for Tehran to manoeuvre in the diplomatic arena.
Iran is steadily outstripping Israel in the power dynamic of the region, as being a much smaller country with an uncertain future, Israel is no longer in the same league as Iran. The Hamas operation exposes this geopolitical reality. A protracted war in Gaza will drain Israel’s resources and weaken the country, but Israel believes it has no diplomatic options. Hezbollah, with its massive stockpile of advanced missiles, has the capability to destroy Israel comprehensively.
The US has deployed two aircraft carriers in the Eastern Mediterranean to send a strong message to Hezbollah, indicating that the US will continue to engage in the West Asian theatre. Disagreements have appeared between EU countries on the conflict, with some countries seeking a reference to de-escalation in the EU joint text on the conflict, which was opposed by others. Tehran is justified in believing it is on the right side of history, as no Global South country supports Israel’s war with Gaza and the potential for future internal contradictions.