Israel’s military operations against Hezbollah have sent shockwaves through the Middle East, where Tehran’s Axis of Resistance—composed of Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Iranian-backed groups—has long been the cornerstone of its influence. Yet, while much has been said about the impacts of this confrontation in the region, there has been less discussion about its far-reaching consequences for a rogue state in the Western Hemisphere: Venezuela. Under Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela has enjoyed a mutually supportive relationship with Iran, a partnership that could now be under threat as Tehran’s power wanes.
Many may assume that the regime in Venezuela is insulated from such external developments, given its history of disregarding international sanctions and global condemnation. Most recently, it brushed aside criticism following a rigged election victory that was dismissed by much of the democratic world. However, as Iran’s ability to project influence in the Middle East weakens, the stability of Maduro’s government is likely to be tested, particularly as Venezuela has become an honorary member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance. For Maduro and his inner circle, the collapse of this network could mark a turning point, one that exposes the fragility of their own grip on power.
Venezuela’s alliance with Iran dates back to the rise of Hugo Chávez in 1999. Chávez and the Iranian leadership, especially under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, found common ground in their opposition to what they saw as U.S. imperialism. Both countries were major oil producers subject to Western sanctions, and both viewed each other not just as partners, but as kindred spirits in the global fight against U.S. hegemony. This ideological bond solidified a partnership that has persisted long after Chávez’s death and Maduro’s rise to power.
While Venezuela and Iran sought to support each other’s economies and alleviate the pressure of sanctions, their trade relationship never reached significant levels. For instance, despite mutual efforts, bilateral trade volumes remained modest compared to both countries’ economic potentials. Iran did serve as a mentor of sorts for Venezuela, teaching it how to circumvent sanctions through tactics like barter trade, third-party intermediaries, and illicit oil shipping methods. But their partnership was always less about economics and more about shared ideological commitments.
What has driven the Venezuela-Iran relationship has been a deep-rooted, almost spiritual, bond based on their mutual rejection of U.S. influence. This relationship has often gone beyond mere rhetoric. In 2013, when Chávez died, Ahmadinejad declared that Chávez would return alongside Jesus Christ and the Hidden Imam to bring peace and justice to the world—a proclamation that underscored the almost messianic dimension of their alliance. Similarly, after the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash earlier this year, Maduro paid tribute to him as a “true friend” of Venezuela.
Over the years, Iran has extended more than just ideological support to Venezuela. It has supplied Caracas with military hardware, including drones, missiles, and intelligence expertise. These military supplies nearly came into play when Venezuela escalated its territorial dispute with neighboring Guyana, a situation that could have led to significant conflict if not for international mediation. Iranian advisors have also been embedded in Venezuela’s intelligence services, such as the Directorate General of Military Counterintelligence (DGCIM), helping the regime with counterintelligence operations and tactics for suppressing internal dissent.
In return, Venezuela has allowed Iranian operatives to use its territory to plot against U.S. interests. After the killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Qasem Soleimani by the U.S. in 2020, Iranian agents in Venezuela were reportedly involved in planning retaliatory attacks against American officials. The IRGC, which has long been a significant force within Iran’s military and political establishment, has deepened its presence in Venezuela as part of a broader effort to support authoritarian regimes that align with Tehran’s objectives.
Despite the strong ties between Caracas and Tehran, recent developments have placed unprecedented strain on their partnership. Iran’s influence in the Middle East has traditionally rested on its ability to threaten Israel and its allies through a network of proxy forces, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen. However, the events of the past few weeks suggest that this network is unraveling much faster than anyone anticipated.
In particular, Israel’s recent offensive against Hezbollah has shaken Iran’s Axis of Resistance to its core. Hezbollah, long considered one of the most formidable non-state military organizations in the region, is now facing unprecedented pressure. Israel’s airstrikes have targeted key Hezbollah positions, disrupting supply lines and diminishing the group’s operational capacity. Simultaneously, Israel’s ground operations, although still unfolding, have the potential to deliver further setbacks to Hezbollah and its Iranian backers.
Iran’s leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is now confronted with a difficult strategic dilemma. Tehran must decide how to respond to these setbacks, knowing that its ability to project power through proxies is rapidly diminishing. The Iranian government’s options are limited. Direct intervention against Israel would risk provoking a larger regional war, while continued reliance on weakened proxies may no longer be enough to maintain its influence. Either way, Iran’s status as the region’s dominant anti-Israel force appears increasingly fragile.
For Venezuela, the erosion of Iran’s power in the Middle East could have dire consequences. Maduro’s regime has survived in part because of the support and protection offered by Iran, both in terms of military assistance and strategic advice. The alliance with Iran has also given Maduro confidence that he is part of a larger brotherhood of authoritarian states, where regime survival is paramount and mutual support is guaranteed.
However, if Iran’s influence continues to collapse, Maduro may find himself increasingly isolated on the global stage. Venezuela’s regime does not enjoy broad popular support—polls consistently show that the Venezuelan population is overwhelmingly opposed to Maduro and his policies, which have driven the country into economic ruin. Instead, Maduro’s power relies on a small group of military elites who have benefited from his rule and remain loyal as long as their personal interests are served.
The danger for Maduro is that these military elites may begin to reconsider their loyalty if they perceive that he no longer has the means to protect them or guarantee their continued access to power and wealth. Iran’s weakening position could signal to Maduro’s inner circle that the regime’s days may be numbered, especially if Venezuela’s remaining allies in the international community are similarly destabilized. In a world where even Iran’s theocratic government is struggling to assert its influence, the Venezuelan regime may appear increasingly vulnerable by comparison.
One of the key questions now facing Venezuela is whether Maduro’s inner circle—especially the military elites who have been crucial to his survival—will remain loyal in the face of external pressures. History offers numerous examples of authoritarian regimes collapsing when their enablers no longer see a clear path to preserving their own power. For Maduro, the challenge will be maintaining the confidence of these elites in a world where the support structures that have protected him are rapidly disintegrating.
Already, there are signs that some within the Venezuelan regime are beginning to question their long-term future under Maduro. The collapse of the Axis of Resistance could embolden dissenters within the regime, particularly those who see an opportunity to secure their own interests by distancing themselves from a leader who is increasingly isolated both domestically and internationally. If key figures in Maduro’s military establishment begin to defect or turn against him, it could trigger a broader unraveling of the regime.
