The Israeli leadership is riding a wave of triumph following the recent developments in its offensive against Hezbollah. This escalation, which began with the detonation of weaponized pagers and radios, has now escalated into deadly and intense airstrikes.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, in particular, has been vocal about the success of the campaign, expressing confidence that the offensive is turning the tide in favor of Israel. The worst week Hezbollah has had since its establishment, and the results speak for themselves,” Gallant remarked after a string of airstrikes targeted Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in Lebanon.
The Human Cost: Civilian Casualties in Lebanon
However, while Israel’s leaders celebrate the military achievements, the consequences for Lebanon have been severe. The Lebanese government reported that more than 550 of its citizens, including 50 children, have been killed in these airstrikes. This number is significant, as it nearly reaches half the total number of Lebanese civilians killed during the entire 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.
For Israel, the airstrikes have been a critical component in destroying Hezbollah’s capacity to launch rocket attacks. Gallant mentioned that thousands of rockets, which could have been fired into Israeli civilian areas, have been eliminated. For Lebanon, though, this destruction has come at an immense human and infrastructural cost, exacerbating a fragile political and economic situation already stretched thin by years of instability.
Israel’s Strategic Intentions: Targeting Hezbollah’s Stronghold
The overarching Israeli strategy in this offensive is clear: force Hezbollah into submission by inflicting such overwhelming damage that the militant group’s leadership, particularly Hassan Nasrallah, and its backers in Iran decide that the costs of continuing hostilities are too great. The ultimate goal for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government is to stop Hezbollah from launching rockets across the border and to push the group’s military operations further away from Israel’s northern frontier.
The recent strikes echo similar efforts made in Gaza over the past year, where Israel has been engaged in a drawn-out, grinding conflict with Hamas. In Gaza, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) issued warnings to civilians to evacuate targeted areas—a tactic now mirrored in Lebanon. Critics, however, argue that these warnings are insufficient, giving families little time to flee the impending bombardments.
Much like in Gaza, Israel accuses Hezbollah of using civilians as human shields, embedding military targets within densely populated areas. The laws of war, particularly the Geneva Conventions, demand that civilians be protected, and military operations should avoid disproportionate use of force. Critics of Israel argue that some of the recent attacks violated these principles, especially the detonation of weaponized pagers and radios, which led to civilian casualties.
The Weaponized Pager Attack: A Controversial Tactic
The initial phase of the offensive saw an unconventional method deployed—weaponized pagers and radios, which targeted Hezbollah operatives by remotely detonating explosives hidden in these devices. While the tactic was intended to target Hezbollah operatives specifically, it became apparent that Israel could not precisely predict where the operatives would be at the time of detonation, resulting in civilian casualties in public places such as homes and shops. This has drawn sharp criticism from legal experts, who argue that the attack failed to adequately distinguish between combatants and non-combatants, constituting a violation of the rules of war.
Despite the controversy, Israel has maintained that these attacks were necessary to neutralize key operatives of Hezbollah. The international community remains deeply divided on the issue, with some nations backing Israel’s right to self-defense, while others question the legality and morality of such tactics.
Hezbollah’s Retaliation: Rocket Barrages and Israeli Evacuations
The current hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah can be traced back to the aftermath of Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel on October 7th. Following this, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, ordered his forces to launch a limited but consistent barrage of rocket fire across the border in support of Hamas. This barrage not only tied up Israeli military resources but also led to the evacuation of roughly 60,000 civilians from Israel’s northern border towns.
Hezbollah’s attacks, which have included strikes on Israeli military positions as well as civilian areas, have drawn widespread condemnation from Israel and its Western allies, including the United States and the United Kingdom. Both nations have long classified Hezbollah as a terrorist organization and continue to support Israel’s right to defend itself.
Despite these rocket barrages, there are growing indications that Hezbollah’s operational capacity has been significantly weakened in the past week due to the relentless Israeli air campaign. Some Israeli commentators have even drawn parallels to Operation Focus, Israel’s 1967 surprise attack on Egypt’s air force, which helped to secure an Israeli victory in the Six-Day War.
Yet, while the destruction of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure is apparent, analysts caution against over-optimism. Hezbollah has shown a remarkable ability to recover from such blows in the past, and its will to resist remains deeply ingrained.
Israel’s Past Wars with Hezbollah
Israel’s current offensive against Hezbollah is not an isolated event. The animosity between the two has its roots in the 1980s, and the two sides have clashed in major conflicts, most notably the 2006 Lebanon War. That conflict ended in a fragile ceasefire brokered by the United Nations, but it did not resolve the underlying issues between the two sides. Hezbollah has since rebuilt its forces and maintained a formidable presence in southern Lebanon, which serves as a key strategic stronghold for the group.
In 2006, after Hezbollah launched a raid across the border that killed and captured several Israeli soldiers, Israel responded with an air campaign that escalated into a full-blown ground invasion. While Israel inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah, the group was able to continue launching rockets into Israel until the very last day of the war. It became clear that airstrikes alone were not enough to neutralize Hezbollah’s threat.
A New Ground Offensive?
This historical precedent raises a critical question: What happens if airstrikes alone fail to achieve Israel’s objectives this time? Netanyahu and the IDF may be forced to consider a ground invasion into Lebanon to create a buffer zone or capture key Hezbollah positions. Such an operation would be far more complex than Israel’s previous campaigns in Gaza. Hezbollah is more heavily armed, better trained, and has had 18 years to fortify its positions since the last war ended in 2006.
Moreover, Hezbollah’s military infrastructure is deeply entrenched in the rugged terrain of southern Lebanon, where tunnels and bunkers have been built into solid rock—making it exceedingly difficult for Israel to destroy them from the air. While Israel’s airstrikes may degrade Hezbollah’s missile capabilities, it would likely take a ground invasion to decisively neutralize the threat.
However, a ground invasion would come with its own set of risks. Hezbollah is well-armed, with an estimated arsenal of between 120,000 and 200,000 missiles, many of which are capable of reaching Israel’s major cities. An invasion would likely provoke Hezbollah to unleash more of these weapons, which could result in a devastating escalation.
Hezbollah’s Strategic Calculations: Iran’s Influence
Another factor to consider is Hezbollah’s relationship with Iran. As Hezbollah’s primary patron, Iran plays a crucial role in the group’s strategic calculations. While Hezbollah has been firing rockets into Israel, it is possible that Tehran is advising restraint, especially when it comes to using the more advanced parts of its arsenal. Iran may prefer to keep Hezbollah’s missile stockpile in reserve as a deterrent against a potential Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
However, Israel is taking a gamble of its own. It hopes that Hezbollah will refrain from unleashing its full arsenal out of fear that Israel’s air force could reduce much of Lebanon to rubble, as it has done to parts of Gaza. But this is far from a certainty. Hezbollah might decide to use more of its weapons before Israel has a chance to destroy them.
Israel’s Military Dilemma: Facing Multiple Fronts
As the conflict with Hezbollah continues to unfold, Israel finds itself in an increasingly precarious position. In addition to the fighting in Lebanon, the war in Gaza shows no signs of abating. Hamas fighters continue to launch attacks from tunnels and ruins, and Israeli soldiers are still searching for hostages held by the militant group. Meanwhile, violence is also escalating in the occupied West Bank, raising the prospect of Israel being stretched thin across multiple fronts.
This strain is particularly felt among Israel’s reserve forces, which provide much of the country’s military manpower. After nearly a year of fighting, these units are feeling the fatigue, raising questions about how long Israel can sustain a multi-front war.
Israel’s allies, led by the United States, are also concerned about the situation escalating further. American diplomats have been working to broker a ceasefire based on United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war. However, these efforts are complicated by the ongoing war in Gaza. Hezbollah has made it clear that it will not stop attacking Israel until the conflict in Gaza ends, tying the fates of the two wars together.
At present, neither Israel nor Hamas seems willing to make the concessions necessary to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza, and without a resolution to that conflict, the prospects for peace on the Lebanese border seem remote. As the airstrikes continue and tensions escalate, the situation on Israel’s northern border grows increasingly perilous. Israel’s leaders believe that they can force Hezbollah into submission, but Hezbollah’s deep-rooted opposition to Israel, coupled with its military capabilities and backing from Iran, suggest that the conflict is far from over.
