In a move that has sent shockwaves through the Japanese political landscape, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on August 14, 2024, that he would not seek re-election as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the upcoming presidential election scheduled for late September. This decision, unexpected and abrupt, has set the stage for a significant shift in Japan’s leadership, with Kishida set to step down from the office of prime minister after the election.

Kishida’s announcement came during Japan’s Obon summer holiday, a time when the LDP was expected to be preparing for the upcoming election. Instead, the prime minister chose to bow out, citing the need for transparency and open competition within the party. He emphasized the importance of “a free and vigorous debate” to choose the next leader, suggesting that his departure would facilitate such a process. As a rank-and-file member of the LDP, Kishida committed to supporting the new leader, marking the first time in years that factional politics would play no official role in the election of the party’s president.

The reasons for Kishida’s decision can be traced to two primary factors: his handling of a political fundraising scandal that has plagued the party, and the resultant sharp decline in his approval ratings. Both issues have cast a long shadow over his tenure and likely contributed to his decision to step down.

The LDP has been embroiled in a political funds scandal since late 2023, with accusations that the party failed to report certain funds, instead placing them in undeclared slush funds. The scandal has had far-reaching consequences, leading to public outcry and a loss of trust in the party. Kishida’s efforts to address the issue, though commendable, were ultimately seen as too little, too late.

Kishida responded to the scandal by entrusting the party’s Ethics (Disciplinary) Committee with investigating the matter. The committee eventually punished 39 Diet members, primarily from the factions associated with former Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Toshihiro Nikai, who were found to have failed to report income from party activities. However, the punishments were handed down only after considerable delay, and many saw them as inadequate. Prominent figures such as Ryo Shionoya and Hiroshige Seko received significant penalties, but the fact that Kishida himself, as well as Nikai, escaped punishment raised eyebrows and fueled public dissatisfaction.

Kishida’s decision not to amend the Political Funds Control Act to place individual responsibility on lawmakers was another point of contention. Public opinion polls indicated that voters were unsatisfied with the measures taken, and calls for a change in leadership within the LDP grew louder.

Declining Approval Ratings

Kishida’s approval ratings had been on a downward trajectory for several months, largely due to his handling of the scandal and its aftermath. By July 2024, his Cabinet’s approval rating had plummeted to 25.1%, a dramatic drop from previous months. The disapproval rating had risen steadily, with more voters expressing a desire for change in leadership. In opinion polls, a majority of respondents indicated that they wanted Kishida to be replaced, either immediately or in the upcoming presidential election.

Faced with these grim numbers, Kishida likely concluded that his continued leadership would not be in the best interest of the party. His decision to step aside was seen as a recognition of the public’s dissatisfaction and a move to avoid further damage to the LDP’s standing.

With Kishida’s departure, the race to become the next leader of the LDP—and, by extension, the next prime minister—has been thrown wide open. Several names have emerged as potential candidates, each with their own strengths and weaknesses.

Shigeru Ishiba: Front-Runner

Former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba has long been a prominent figure in Japanese politics and is seen as a front-runner to succeed Kishida. Ishiba, who has served as defense minister and is known for his criticism of factional politics, has consistently ranked high in opinion polls as a potential prime minister. His popularity with the public, however, has not always translated into support within the LDP, where he is often seen as a maverick.

Ishiba’s challenge will be to garner enough support from LDP lawmakers, particularly in a party where factional allegiances have traditionally played a significant role. With the elimination of official factional politics, Ishiba may have an advantage in appealing directly to party members and the public.

Another strong contender is Taro Kono, the current Minister of Digital Affairs. Kono is known for his reformist views and his savvy use of social media, which has helped him build a broad base of support among younger voters. Kono has expressed his desire to run for the LDP presidency and has already begun seeking support from influential party figures, including former Prime Minister Taro Aso.

Kono’s appeal lies in his reputation as a reform-minded leader who is willing to challenge the status quo. However, like Ishiba, he faces the challenge of securing enough support within the party’s ranks, particularly among those who may be wary of his maverick tendencies.

In addition to Ishiba and Kono, several other figures have been mentioned as potential candidates to succeed Kishida. These include former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who has a strong public following but lacks significant experience within the party; Minister of State for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, who has a loyal base among conservative voters; and former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who could make a comeback after his brief tenure in office. Other potential candidates, such as LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi and former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi, are also in the mix, though their chances are seen as less favorable.

Challenges for  Next Prime Minister

Whoever wins the race to become the next LDP president will face significant challenges in reviving the party’s fortunes and addressing the issues that have plagued Kishida’s administration. Public trust in the LDP has been eroded by the political funds scandal, and the new leader will need to take decisive action to restore confidence.

One of the key tasks for the new prime minister will be to navigate Japan’s complex economic landscape. Kishida’s administration had made strides in addressing wage stagnation and promoting “New Capitalism,” but the weakening yen and rising inflation have created new challenges. The next leader will need to build on these efforts while also addressing the concerns of voters who feel left behind by economic policies.

In addition to domestic issues, Japan’s new leader will also need to manage the country’s relationships with key international partners. Kishida’s tenure saw a strengthening of ties with the United States and efforts to restore relations with South Korea, but regional tensions remain high, particularly with China and North Korea. The next prime minister will need to continue navigating these complex dynamics while maintaining Japan’s security and economic interests.

As Kishida prepares to step down, his legacy as prime minister is likely to be viewed as a mixed one. On the one hand, he achieved significant successes in the realms of foreign policy and defense. His efforts to double Japan’s defense spending and relax export rules were seen as bold moves that positioned Japan as a more assertive player on the global stage. He also managed to restore ties with South Korea, a key ally, without sparking widespread protests.

However, Kishida’s domestic record is more contentious. While he championed wage increases and sought to promote a more inclusive form of capitalism, his administration was ultimately undone by the political funds scandal and the economic challenges posed by a weak yen. His inability to effectively connect with the public and address these issues led to a significant decline in his approval ratings, ultimately forcing him to step down.

As Japan prepares for a change in leadership, the country stands at a critical juncture. The outcome of the LDP presidential election in September will determine not only the next prime minister but also the direction of Japan’s political and economic future. With Kishida’s departure, the LDP has an opportunity to chart a new course and restore public confidence in its leadership.

The race to succeed Kishida is likely to be closely watched, both within Japan and internationally, as the country’s new leader will face significant challenges in addressing the issues that have come to the fore during Kishida’s tenure. Whether the next prime minister can rise to the occasion and steer Japan through these turbulent times remains to be seen.