Official campaigning for Japan’s upcoming parliamentary election on October 27 began Tuesday, with newly appointed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba seeking a public mandate for his administration’s policies and political reforms. This election comes at a critical time for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which is grappling with the fallout from a major political funds scandal that has rattled public confidence. More than 1,300 candidates were expected to enter the race for the 465 seats in the powerful Lower House, a number that underscores the high stakes of this snap election.
Prime Minister Ishiba, who took office on October 1 following the resignation of his predecessor, Yoshihide Suga, called the snap election in hopes of solidifying his leadership and securing a stable majority in the Diet. His decision, though politically strategic, has drawn sharp criticism for prioritizing electoral victory over policy debate and for giving the opposition little time to mount a strong challenge.
Like many LDP leaders before him, Ishiba launched his campaign in Fukushima, the site of the devastating 2011 nuclear disaster, a symbolic gesture aimed at renewing the government’s commitment to rebuilding the region. “Fukushima’s recovery has been and will continue to be a priority of this government,” Ishiba declared in his opening speech. The ongoing recovery from the earthquake, tsunami, and subsequent nuclear meltdown remains a key issue in Japanese politics, particularly in regions that still feel the socio-economic impact of the disaster.
Ishiba’s choice to campaign in Fukushima reflects a broader theme in his leadership: continuity with LDP traditions while pushing for a more future-oriented agenda. While his government has promised reforms, Ishiba is also keen to present himself as a stabilizing force during a period of growing uncertainty.
“The LDP has led Japan through difficult times, and we are ready to continue leading the country to further economic growth and security,” Ishiba stated during a campaign event, emphasizing Japan’s need for strong leadership amid global challenges such as geopolitical tensions, economic slowdown, and environmental issues.
Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to call a snap election comes at a delicate moment. Although he was appointed only weeks ago, his administration’s approval ratings have already dropped. A Kyodo News survey conducted shortly after he took office showed an approval rating of just 42%, a notable dip from the more than 50% support he enjoyed initially. The public’s dissatisfaction stems, in part, from the ongoing political scandal that has plagued the LDP’s image.
The scandal involves allegations of improper handling of political funds by high-ranking members of the LDP, including accusations of misappropriation and lack of transparency. While Ishiba himself has not been directly implicated, the scandal has cast a shadow over his administration, leading to questions about the party’s commitment to clean governance.
Nevertheless, the LDP remains the most popular party in Japan, with no opposition group coming close in terms of voter support. Ishiba is banking on the LDP’s entrenched political dominance and the relative weakness of the opposition to secure a mandate before the initial goodwill of his premiership fades.
The Opposition’s Challenge: CDPJ’s Conservative Shift
The main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), which briefly held power between 2009 and 2012, is hoping to capitalize on the LDP’s troubles. Led by former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, the CDPJ has shifted to a more centrist position in an effort to appeal to conservative-leaning swing voters. Noda has framed the snap election as a referendum on political accountability, pointing to the LDP’s scandal as evidence of the need for change.
“A leadership change is the biggest political reform,” Noda declared during a campaign event. He has called for greater transparency in political funding and a more focused response to Japan’s domestic challenges, including income inequality, climate change, and an aging population.
While the CDPJ has attempted to broaden its appeal by moving towards the center, it faces a fundamental problem: fragmentation within the opposition bloc. Despite its efforts, Japan’s opposition parties have remained divided, making it difficult for any one party to challenge the LDP’s dominance in a meaningful way. Political analysts suggest that without a unified front, the opposition will struggle to convert public dissatisfaction with the LDP into electoral gains.
The fractured nature of Japan’s opposition landscape is nothing new. Since the LDP regained power in 2012, opposition parties have been unable to form a cohesive alliance capable of mounting a serious challenge to the governing coalition. Even now, as the CDPJ attempts to position itself as a centrist alternative, other opposition parties remain divided on key issues, from economic policy to Japan’s stance on military spending and constitutional reform.
This lack of unity is seen as a major advantage for the LDP. Despite the political funds scandal and the public’s mixed feelings about Ishiba’s leadership, the LDP remains the default choice for many voters who see no viable alternative. The LDP’s junior coalition partner, Komeito, also helps bolster the ruling bloc’s position by bringing in support from its core constituency, the lay Buddhist group Soka Gakkai, which remains influential in Japan’s political landscape.
For the CDPJ and other opposition parties, the upcoming election is an uphill battle. Their strategy, for now, is to focus on policy-specific criticism of the LDP, hoping to chip away at the ruling coalition’s support base. The CDPJ is particularly targeting the LDP’s handling of the political funds scandal, as well as its response to Japan’s long-term economic challenges. But with little time for detailed policy debates due to the snap nature of the election, it remains to be seen how effective this strategy will be.
Beyond the political scandal, Japan’s electorate is concerned with a range of pressing issues, including economic recovery in the post-pandemic era, addressing climate change, and reforming the country’s social welfare system. Japan’s rapidly aging population and declining birthrate pose significant challenges for the nation’s economy, which has struggled with stagnation for decades.
Ishiba has pledged to tackle these issues head-on, promising reforms that will stimulate growth and ensure long-term economic stability. He has spoken extensively about the need for labor market reforms, including increasing wages and improving working conditions for non-regular employees, who make up a large portion of Japan’s workforce. Ishiba also supports increasing public investment in green technologies as part of a broader strategy to position Japan as a global leader in combating climate change.
However, critics argue that Ishiba’s promises lack specificity. While his rhetoric has been focused on innovation and reform, the details of his policy proposals remain vague. Opposition parties have seized on this, accusing the prime minister of prioritizing short-term political gains over long-term planning.
The CDPJ, for its part, has outlined a series of more concrete proposals, including expanding social welfare programs and introducing a progressive tax system that would place a greater burden on Japan’s wealthiest citizens. Noda has also advocated for a more ambitious climate change policy, calling for Japan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and investing heavily in renewable energy sources.
International issues, particularly Japan’s relationship with neighboring countries such as China and North Korea, are also playing a role in the election. Tensions with China over territorial disputes in the East China Sea have escalated in recent years, and Japan’s defense policy is a major topic of debate. The LDP has traditionally supported a stronger military posture, advocating for revisions to Japan’s pacifist constitution that would allow for a more active defense policy.
Ishiba, a former defense minister, is a proponent of these constitutional changes, arguing that Japan needs to be able to defend itself in an increasingly volatile region. His stance has earned him support from more conservative voters, but it is also a point of contention with opposition parties, which are generally more cautious about revising Japan’s postwar constitution.
Noda and the CDPJ have expressed concerns that Ishiba’s approach could destabilize the region and lead to unnecessary confrontations with Japan’s neighbors. They argue that Japan should focus on diplomacy and multilateral engagement to resolve territorial and security disputes.
As the official campaign period begins, Japan’s political landscape is set for an intense showdown. The LDP, despite its recent troubles, remains the dominant force in Japanese politics, but the political funds scandal and public dissatisfaction with the status quo have opened the door for the opposition to make gains.
Whether the CDPJ and other opposition parties can capitalize on this opportunity remains to be seen. The snap election, while advantageous for Ishiba in terms of timing, also poses risks. Voter turnout, public sentiment, and the ability of opposition parties to present a compelling alternative will all play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the October 27 election.
For now, Ishiba is focused on securing a majority in the Lower House, aiming to put the LDP on stable footing as it navigates the complex political and economic challenges facing Japan. As voters head to the polls in just a few weeks, the question remains: will the LDP maintain its political dominance, or will Japan’s fractured opposition find a way to challenge the status quo?
