
In a pivotal vote scheduled for Monday afternoon, Japan’s parliament is expected to re-elect Shigeru Ishiba as prime minister, even as the political landscape appears increasingly complex following a recent election setback. Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito suffered a major blow in the national election on October 27, losing their majority in the lower house. However, due to fractures within the opposition, the coalition still appears to have the numbers to reappoint Ishiba in a likely runoff.
Despite this political continuity, Ishiba’s administration faces an array of challenges, both domestically and internationally. Japan’s strained coalition will have to negotiate with opposition parties to pass critical legislation, including a massive economic stimulus package. Moreover, Ishiba is preparing for a potentially high-stakes diplomatic meeting with US President-elect Donald Trump, expected later this month. As Japan’s prime minister braces for a new phase in his leadership, he confronts not only political pressures at home but also complex dynamics abroad.
Following the October election, the LDP-Komeito coalition faces a weaker mandate in the lower house of Japan’s Diet, or parliament. The coalition’s inability to secure a majority means that they will now require support from opposition factions to advance major legislative initiatives, including an ambitious economic stimulus plan expected to exceed ¥13 trillion ($85 billion).
Although Ishiba is likely to retain his position in the upcoming vote, his political standing has been fundamentally shaken. Analysts believe the coalition’s weakened position could make Ishiba’s leadership more precarious, potentially sparking calls within his own party for new leadership if he is unable to effectively govern. “It’s possible that there will be calls within the LDP for a change of prime minister after the annual budget proposal is approved,” commented Masaki Taniguchi, a professor of political science at the University of Tokyo.
One of Ishiba’s most pressing tasks is securing the support of the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), a smaller opposition party ideologically close to the LDP. Led by Yuichiro Tamaki, the DPP has emerged as a kingmaker in this legislative period. In return for supporting Ishiba’s agenda, Tamaki is leveraging his position to advance his policy goals, including an increase in the tax-free income threshold from ¥1.03 million to ¥1.78 million.
Yet Tamaki’s position within the DPP became tenuous Monday morning following a scandal involving allegations of marital infidelity. While Tamaki acknowledged the report’s validity, DPP Secretary-General Kazuya Shimba stated that he would still back Tamaki in Monday’s prime ministerial vote. Should Tamaki secure his leadership, his influence could prove decisive in guiding Japan’s legislative agenda in the coming months.
With his political position unsettled, Ishiba is anticipated to reshuffle his cabinet soon after the vote, aiming to inject new energy and perspectives into his administration. Only weeks after surprising many by securing the LDP’s leadership, Ishiba now faces the difficult task of reinvigorating public trust and solidifying his governing coalition.
His decision to call a snap election—a calculated risk intended to consolidate power—has thus far failed to deliver the expected results, casting doubts on his long-term prospects. The snap election gamble has instead exposed fractures within the coalition, and with another national election set for July to determine the upper house composition, Ishiba may face further challenges if his administration stumbles in delivering on its policy commitments.
On the international front, Ishiba’s tenure as prime minister is likely to be heavily influenced by evolving relations with the United States. Japanese officials are actively working to arrange a meeting between Ishiba and US President-elect Donald Trump, potentially during a stopover in the US after Ishiba’s attendance at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum in Peru and the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Brazil.
This anticipated meeting will likely be a pivotal moment, as Trump’s return to the White House brings uncertainty to Japan-US relations. During his previous presidency, Trump had a close relationship with former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which was instrumental in stabilizing diplomatic relations. However, Trump’s often critical stance on Japan’s economic policies, particularly regarding the yen’s value against the dollar, is a potential flashpoint. Trump has also frequently demanded that Japan contribute more toward hosting US military forces, which number approximately 55,000 on Japanese soil. These issues are expected to feature prominently in the upcoming talks.
Back in Tokyo, Ishiba’s government faces the challenge of passing an expansive budget to jumpstart the country’s sluggish economy. This budget, estimated at over ¥13 trillion, is intended to support a comprehensive economic stimulus package aimed at addressing stagnating growth. However, Ishiba’s weakened coalition may need to make concessions to secure backing from opposition lawmakers, including those from the DPP, which could dilute the stimulus plan’s original vision.
Yuichiro Tamaki’s demands regarding tax reforms, including raising the tax-free income ceiling, are part of a broader debate about economic equality in Japan. Tamaki’s policy goal resonates with a segment of the public that feels economically left behind, but such a measure could complicate Japan’s fiscal stability as the nation’s debt levels continue to rise. Negotiating a balance between these economic needs and fiscal responsibility will be central to Ishiba’s strategy.
The LDP’s internal cohesion has become a topic of concern for Ishiba, as the coalition’s eroded parliamentary standing has raised questions about his ability to lead Japan effectively. Analysts speculate that LDP lawmakers may initiate calls for new leadership if Ishiba’s administration falters, particularly if he fails to pass the national budget in the spring. This vote may well be a defining moment for Ishiba’s tenure, with implications for the coalition’s stability and the party’s direction.
Moreover, Ishiba’s handling of domestic issues, especially those concerning the economy and his approach to the national budget, will play a significant role in determining his political survival. The outcome of next July’s upper house election is seen by many as a litmus test for the LDP’s leadership under Ishiba. Should the party face additional losses, it could fuel further calls for change within the party, opening the door to a possible successor.
As Japan seeks to adapt to shifting global dynamics, Ishiba’s diplomatic approach will be critical. Trump’s anticipated demands for Japan to increase its financial contribution to host US forces could test Japan’s diplomatic and defense policies. Japan has long relied on its alliance with the United States for regional security, particularly concerning its strategic position in East Asia amid an assertive China. With Trump’s “America First” foreign policy stance potentially reinvigorated, Ishiba may have to carefully navigate the US-Japan alliance’s economic and security aspects.
Additionally, Ishiba’s planned attendance at the APEC and G20 summits underscores Japan’s commitment to multilateral diplomacy and economic cooperation within the Asia-Pacific region. His engagement with other world leaders, particularly those from emerging economies, will be vital in addressing trade, environmental issues, and regional stability—concerns of paramount importance as Japan faces economic and demographic challenges at home.