In a move that has sent shockwaves through Japan’s political landscape, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on Wednesday that he would not seek re-election in the upcoming Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race. The decision, which comes just months before the September election, opens the door for Japan to have a new prime minister, marking a significant shift in the country’s political dynamics.
Kishida’s announcement came during a press conference at the prime minister’s office, where he emphasized the importance of renewing the LDP’s image in the eyes of the Japanese public. “As a first step to impress on the public that the LDP has changed, I have decided not to run in the presidential race,” Kishida stated. He noted that the decision was made at a time when he was free of immediate diplomatic commitments, suggesting that this was a calculated move aimed at addressing domestic political challenges rather than external pressures.
The timing of Kishida’s decision is particularly noteworthy as it coincides with increased national attention on disaster preparedness. Just last week, Japan’s Meteorological Agency issued its first-ever advisory warning of an increased risk of a megaquake along the Nankai Trough, a geological fault line that runs between central and southwestern Japan in the Pacific Ocean. The potential threat of such a disaster has added a sense of urgency to Kishida’s government, which has been focused on bolstering the country’s disaster preparedness.
Kishida’s decision to step aside from the LDP leadership race comes at a time when his approval ratings have been notably low. According to a Mainichi Shimbun opinion poll conducted last month, the approval rating of Kishida’s Cabinet rose by only four percentage points to 21 percent, remaining below the 30 percent mark for the 13th consecutive month. Such low ratings have fueled speculation about Kishida’s ability to lead the LDP to victory in the general elections scheduled for 2025.
Political analysts have pointed to these persistent low approval ratings as a key factor in Kishida’s decision. Liu Jiangyong, the vice dean of the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University, told the Global Times that it would be difficult for a leader with such low public support to secure an election victory for the LDP. “The decision by Kishida was likely driven by the potential political crisis that a failure in the general election could pose for the party,” Liu remarked.
With Kishida stepping down, attention has quickly shifted to potential candidates who could succeed him as LDP leader and, by extension, as Japan’s next prime minister. Among the names being speculated are some of the most senior members of the LDP, each with their own distinct political profiles and leadership styles.
- Toshimitsu Motegi: The current Secretary-General of the LDP, Motegi is a seasoned politician with extensive experience in foreign affairs and economic policy. His diplomatic skills and experience in high-level negotiations make him a strong contender, particularly as Japan navigates complex international relations.
- Taro Kono: Serving as the Digital Minister, Kono is known for his reformist stance and his popularity among younger voters. His candidacy could signal a shift towards modernization and digitalization in Japan’s governance, appealing to a demographic that feels increasingly disconnected from traditional politics.
- Sanae Takaichi: As the Economic Security Minister, Takaichi has been a vocal advocate for strengthening Japan’s economic resilience and security. Her hawkish views on defense and national security could appeal to conservative factions within the LDP, especially those concerned with regional threats.
- Yoko Kamikawa: Currently serving as Foreign Minister, Kamikawa has been a prominent figure in Japan’s diplomacy, particularly in navigating relations with China and the United States. Her experience and approach to international relations could position her as a stabilizing force in a potentially turbulent transition period.
Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba has also reaffirmed his intention to run in the LDP’s presidential election. Ishiba, who is on a visit to Taiwan, has been a longstanding advocate for defense reforms and has a reputation for being more critical of party leadership, which may resonate with voters seeking change.
Kishida’s decision not to seek re-election has raised questions about the future direction of Japan’s foreign policy, particularly its relationship with China. During Kishida’s tenure, Japan adopted a more assertive stance towards China, particularly on issues related to security and territorial disputes. This approach has been characterized by some as a departure from the traditionally more dovish policies associated with the faction Kishida leads.
Xiang Haoyu, a research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, commented on the continuity of Japan’s China policy, regardless of who succeeds Kishida. “No matter who becomes the next LDP leader and new Japanese prime minister, he or she will likely continue with Kishida’s China policy,” Xiang said, noting that the general political orientation towards China within the Japanese political circle remains consistent.
This continuity, Xiang argues, is rooted in a broader consensus within Japan’s political establishment, which views China with increasing suspicion and sees the strengthening of the US-Japan alliance as a strategic necessity. During Kishida’s time in office, Japan’s rhetoric around the “China threat” increased, and the country’s involvement in Taiwan-related issues became more pronounced, actions that have strained Sino-Japanese relations.
China’s response to Kishida’s announcement has been measured. Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, acknowledged the announcement during a press conference but refrained from commenting on Japan’s internal affairs. Lin emphasized that China and Japan are important neighbors and expressed hope that both countries would work together to advance their strategic relationship in a constructive and stable manner.
However, tensions remain, particularly around the Taiwan issue, which China views as a core interest. Lin reiterated China’s position, calling on Japanese politicians to avoid sending “wrong signals” to Taiwan independence forces, a clear warning against further Japanese involvement in what China considers its domestic affairs.
Whoever succeeds Kishida will inherit a complex and challenging political landscape. Domestically, they will need to address the issues that have led to Kishida’s declining approval ratings, including economic concerns, social welfare, and disaster preparedness. The new leader will also have to navigate the LDP’s internal dynamics, balancing the interests of various factions while maintaining party unity ahead of the 2025 general elections.
Internationally, Japan’s next prime minister will face the delicate task of managing relations with China, the United States, and other key regional players. The strategic choices made by the new leader will have significant implications not only for Japan’s foreign policy but also for regional stability in East Asia.
The leadership race is expected to be highly competitive, with candidates presenting their visions for Japan’s future. Whether the LDP will embrace continuity or seek a more radical shift in leadership remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that Kishida’s decision to step aside marks a pivotal moment in Japanese politics, one that could reshape the country’s trajectory in the years to come.
As Japan prepares for this transition, the political landscape is fraught with uncertainty. The coming weeks and months will be crucial as candidates vie for leadership, each offering a different path forward. For Kishida, the decision not to run may be seen as a strategic retreat, allowing the LDP to rejuvenate under new leadership. For Japan, it represents a moment of potential change, as the nation looks to its future with both hope and apprehension.
