Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has declared his intent to remain in office despite a political setback after calling for snap elections that led to a striking defeat for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The election outcome, driven largely by a slush fund scandal, has resulted in the worst electoral performance for the LDP and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, in over 15 years.
Only days after assuming office on October 1, Ishiba, 67, made the bold move to call a snap election, aiming to establish a fresh mandate for his administration. However, the decision proved costly. Sunday’s election saw voters disillusioned with political scandals overwhelmingly withdrawing their support, pushing the LDP and Komeito to their lowest number of seats since 2008. With Ishiba’s coalition falling short of a majority, his hope for a stable governance foundation remains precarious.
Speaking to reporters on Monday, Ishiba reaffirmed his commitment to remain in office despite the outcome, rejecting the idea of a “political vacuum” amidst Japan’s turbulent times. “I want to fulfil my duty by protecting people’s lives, protecting Japan,” he stated, acknowledging that the election represented a “severe judgement” from the electorate.
The election results were deeply influenced by a high-profile scandal involving LDP politicians, which had already impacted Ishiba’s predecessor, former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Reports revealed that multiple LDP officials had personally benefited from substantial funds generated by party-run fundraising events, raising public suspicion about widespread corruption within the party. Though Ishiba had vowed not to back any implicated party members, the opposition highlighted reports indicating that these members had still received financial support.
This disillusionment with the LDP’s ethics resonated with voters, resulting in a drastic drop in LDP seats from 259 in the 2021 election to a projected 191 this cycle. Komeito, the LDP’s traditional coalition partner, also suffered, with its count dwindling from 32 to 24 seats. Collectively, the coalition now faces an uphill battle as it struggles to retain power and public trust.
The LDP’s disappointing results have already sent ripples through Japan’s economy, with the yen falling to a three-month low against the U.S. dollar on Monday. Investors reacted to the uncertain political landscape, with the currency sliding by over 1% amidst the prospect of instability. Economists point out that political uncertainty, particularly following a scandal, typically weighs on investor confidence, as markets crave stable governance and clear economic policy.
“Currency investors are uneasy with instability,” noted Naoto Hosoda, a Tokyo-based market analyst. “The combination of electoral loss, political scandal, and a global economy facing significant challenges adds substantial risk to Japan’s financial outlook.”
As the dust settles on the election, the LDP faces potential rifts within its ranks. On Monday, Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and head of the LDP’s election committee, announced his resignation, citing his responsibility for the party’s losses. Koizumi’s departure has underscored the internal conflicts and dissatisfaction brewing within the LDP.
Analysts suggest that Ishiba, who has previously been at odds with the party’s more conservative factions, may find it challenging to unify the LDP in the aftermath of this defeat. Political science professor Yu Uchiyama from the University of Tokyo commented on the potential for an internal struggle, observing that allies of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who had been sidelined under Ishiba’s leadership, may now seek an opportunity to regain influence. However, Uchiyama noted that “with the number of LDP seats reduced so much, they might take the high road and support Ishiba for now, thinking it’s not the time for infighting.”
While the LDP suffered a significant blow, opposition parties made notable gains. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), led by former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, emerged as a major beneficiary of the public’s desire for political reform, increasing its seat count from 96 to 148. Noda, who has positioned the CDP as a pro-reform party focused on ethics and transparency, stated that voters “chose which party would be the best fit to push for political reforms,” and voiced confidence that the LDP-Komeito administration “cannot continue” in its current form.
Beyond the CDP, smaller parties with distinct platforms also gained traction. Reiwa Shinsengumi, a progressive party founded by former actor Taro Yamamoto, saw a significant boost in support, tripling its seats to nine. The party’s platform, centered on abolishing sales taxes and increasing pensions, struck a chord with voters frustrated by economic stagnation and high living costs. Similarly, the Conservative Party of Japan, a nationalist party formed in 2023 by author Naoki Hyakuta, won its first three seats, reflecting a rise in support for conservative, anti-immigration policies among some segments of the electorate.
Amidst the reshaping of Japan’s political landscape, the election marked a historic milestone for women in politics. The number of female lawmakers elected reached a record high of 73, representing nearly 16% of the legislature. Though still modest compared to other developed nations, the increase signals a growing acceptance of women in public office, driven in part by demands for broader representation and a commitment to gender equality.
Observers hope that the increased presence of female lawmakers will bring fresh perspectives to policy discussions, particularly in areas such as social welfare, healthcare, and economic inclusion. However, significant progress remains needed for gender parity, and advocates continue to call for policies that support female political engagement and leadership.
Many voters expressed skepticism about the political establishment’s ability to deliver meaningful change. Masakazu Ikeuchi, a 44-year-old restaurant worker in Tokyo, expressed disappointment in the election outcome. “As long as our own lives don’t improve, I think everyone has given up on the idea that we can expect anything from politicians,” he said, reflecting widespread discontent with the political class. Fellow voter Takako Sasaki echoed this sentiment, stating, “I think the outcome was a result of people across Japan wanting to change the current situation.”
Despite the public’s disillusionment, Prime Minister Ishiba has vowed to carry on with his reform agenda. In his Monday remarks, he outlined plans for “fundamental reform regarding the issue of money and politics,” asserting his commitment to rebuilding trust and pushing forward with his policy initiatives.
With the ruling coalition failing to secure a majority, Ishiba faces the challenge of governing in a fractured and polarized parliament. Analysts predict that he may attempt to lead a minority government, an arrangement that could limit his ability to pass significant legislation without support from other parties. While Ishiba indicated that he is not currently considering forming a broader coalition, political observers speculate that he may be forced to negotiate alliances to avoid legislative gridlock.
In a complex twist, some LDP members may rally behind Ishiba to prevent further destabilization, yet the weakened ruling coalition may face considerable hurdles in navigating a divided parliament. Without clear support from within or outside the party, Ishiba’s leadership faces uncertain waters in the months to come.
