In 2014, Joko Widodo, affectionately known as Jokowi, was the symbol of hope, democracy, and change in Indonesia. With a simple white ribbon tied around his head, warning against electoral fraud, he electrified packed campaign rallies, symbolizing a fresh start for the world’s third-largest democracy. He was an outsider, a former furniture manufacturer turned mayor and then governor of Jakarta, with no ties to the powerful military and oligarchs who had long dominated Indonesia’s political landscape. His promise was clear: to cleanse Indonesia’s political system, fight corruption, and prioritize the people’s welfare.
Fast forward to 2024, as Jokowi prepares to step down after two terms in office, his legacy is both celebrated and contested. On the one hand, his presidency ushered in economic stability, substantial infrastructure development, and improved healthcare access. On the other, critics argue that Jokowi’s second term has been marked by a return to political patronage, dynastic politics, and the weakening of democratic institutions. Furthermore, his support for his long-time political rival, Prabowo Subianto, as his successor has raised concerns about the future trajectory of Indonesia’s fragile democracy.
Jokowi’s election in 2014 was a watershed moment in Indonesia’s political history. Coming from humble beginnings in Surakarta (Solo), his rise to the presidency was seen as a triumph of democracy. He defeated Prabowo Subianto, a former special forces commander with a controversial military record, signaling a break from Indonesia’s authoritarian past.
During his first term, Jokowi delivered on many of his promises. His administration oversaw robust economic growth, with Indonesia maintaining a solid annual GDP growth rate of around 5%. Inflation remained under control, and foreign direct investment surged, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing and mineral processing. His ambitious infrastructure drive led to the construction of roads, ports, airports, and public transit systems across the archipelago, transforming the country’s physical landscape.
One of his hallmark achievements was the expansion of the national health insurance scheme (JKN), which now covers more than 90% of Indonesia’s 280 million citizens. This initiative significantly improved access to healthcare, especially for those in rural and remote areas. It was a major step toward achieving universal healthcare in the country, a promise that had long eluded his predecessors.
However, while Jokowi’s first term was largely defined by progress and optimism, the seeds of his later political shift were already being sown. His early years in office were marked by compromises with political elites to ensure legislative support for his policies, foreshadowing the political maneuvering that would come to define his second term.
In 2019, Jokowi again faced Prabowo in a tightly contested election, which he won by a narrower margin than in 2014. After securing his second term, Jokowi made a surprising move by appointing Prabowo as his defense minister, signaling a pragmatic alliance with the old guard. This appointment raised eyebrows, given Prabowo’s alleged involvement in human rights abuses during his military career, accusations that he has consistently denied.
Jokowi’s second term was marked by a clear shift toward consolidating power. His administration began to entertain discussions about amending the constitution to allow for a potential third term or extending the current presidential term limits. While neither idea came to fruition, the mere suggestion of altering the democratic framework alarmed many Indonesians who had lived through the autocratic rule of Suharto, which ended in 1998.
Political analysts noted a growing trend of Jokowi using state institutions, including the judiciary and anti-corruption bodies, to silence political opponents and maintain control over the government. Kevin O’Rourke, a political analyst, remarked, “Widodo has done a lot of damage to democratization in recent years. It’s hard to see how the recovery can come about.” His administration faced accusations of using corruption investigations as political tools to target opponents, including high-profile figures within rival parties.
In August 2023, Airlangga Hartarto, the head of the Golkar Party, abruptly resigned, and was replaced by a Jokowi loyalist, reportedly under threat of legal action. While Hartarto declined to comment, this event highlighted the increasing influence of political patronage under Jokowi’s leadership.
The president’s growing confidence in manipulating the political landscape led critics to accuse him of prioritizing his family’s future in politics. This was brought into sharp focus in October 2023, when the constitutional court, headed by Jokowi’s brother-in-law, ruled in favor of his son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, allowing him to run for the vice presidency. The decision to lower the age requirement for vice-presidential candidates stirred controversy, with widespread protests erupting in major cities.
Perhaps the most enduring and controversial aspect of Jokowi’s legacy is his endorsement of Prabowo Subianto as his successor in the 2024 presidential election. Prabowo, a member of Indonesia’s old political elite and the former son-in-law of the authoritarian ruler Suharto, represents a stark departure from the reformist ideals Jokowi once embodied.
Prabowo’s past is marked by allegations of human rights violations, including the abduction and disappearance of pro-democracy activists during Suharto’s final years in power. Despite these accusations, which he has denied, Prabowo has remained a powerful figure in Indonesian politics, running for president in 2014 and 2019 before finally securing victory in 2024, with Jokowi’s son, Gibran, as his running mate.
Prabowo’s rhetoric during the 2024 campaign raised concerns among pro-democracy advocates. He has previously advocated for returning to a pre-reform constitution, which would eliminate direct presidential elections and give the military a greater role in governance. While Prabowo has not recently called for such changes, his past statements, coupled with his authoritarian leanings, have fueled fears that Indonesia may regress to Suharto-era politics.
“Prabowo has made clear that he will brook very little dissent,” O’Rourke warned. “A return to Suharto-era political structures is likely.” Such a shift would mark a significant setback for Indonesia’s hard-won democratic reforms, which were established after Suharto’s fall in 1998.
As Jokowi prepares to leave office on October 20, 2024, his legacy is one of contradictions. On the one hand, he will be remembered for transforming Indonesia’s infrastructure, improving healthcare access, and steering the country through a period of economic stability. His popularity remains high, with a recent poll by Indikator Politik Indonesia showing his approval rating at 75%, even after a decade in power.
Yet, on the other hand, Jokowi’s tenure has also been marked by a return to political patronage and dynastic ambitions. His willingness to sideline democratic principles in favor of political expediency has left Indonesia’s institutions more fragile and vulnerable to manipulation. Political analyst Sana Jaffrey of the Australian National University observed, “Jokowi has taken Indonesia right to the edge, but not yet into ‘competitive authoritarianism.’ In a system like that, all the structures of democracy exist… but none of them are meaningful.”
Jokowi’s support for Prabowo’s candidacy has been particularly disheartening for many of his early supporters. Prabowo’s ascension to the presidency, with Jokowi’s son as his vice president, is seen as the culmination of a decade-long drift toward dynastic politics, something Jokowi once promised to eradicate.
Indonesia’s future under Prabowo Subianto remains uncertain. While Prabowo has refrained from advocating for constitutional changes in recent years, his past actions and statements suggest a willingness to curtail democratic freedoms. For a country that has experienced the horrors of authoritarianism under Suharto, the prospect of a return to such a system is deeply concerning.
At the same time, Indonesia’s economy remains resilient, buoyed by Jokowi’s investments in infrastructure and industry. The country has become a major player in the global nickel market, positioning itself as a key supplier of materials for electric vehicle batteries. Whether Prabowo will continue Jokowi’s economic policies or chart a new course remains to be seen.
Jokowi’s presidency, once a beacon of hope for democratic reform, ends with a sense of ambivalence. His early successes have been overshadowed by his later compromises, leaving Indonesia at a crossroads. As the country prepares for a new chapter under Prabowo, the question remains: Can Indonesia’s democracy survive the challenges ahead, or will it revert to the authoritarianism of its past?
