As Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s final term nears its end on October 20, 2024, his ten-year tenure has become a defining period in Indonesia’s political history. Jokowi, a leader once celebrated for his reformist agenda, is now scrutinized for the democratic backsliding that has marked his time in office.
This regression is evident through his administration’s attacks on key watchdog institutions, such as the Anti-corruption Commission and the Constitutional Court. Additionally, Jokowi’s efforts to intimidate and weaken civil society organizations have raised concerns about the erosion of democracy in Indonesia, a country that had fought hard to establish democratic norms following the fall of former dictator Soeharto in 1998.
Despite these troubling developments, Jokowi has managed to maintain a high approval rating, consistently hovering above 70%. His popularity has even led supporters to propose constitutional amendments to allow him to seek a third term, although these attempts have not gained traction. Nevertheless, Jokowi remains committed to retaining his influence in Indonesian politics after his presidency concludes. His recent political maneuvers, including forming alliances with rivals and promoting his sons into political positions, reflect his determination to maintain power and shape Indonesia’s political future.
Undermining of Democratic Institutions
Jokowi’s presidency has been characterized by actions that have weakened democratic institutions in Indonesia. The Anti-corruption Commission (KPK), once a formidable force in the fight against corruption, has been significantly weakened under his leadership. Jokowi’s administration has been accused of directly intervening in the KPK’s operations, resulting in a loss of independence and credibility.
Revisions to the KPK law, which were passed in 2019 despite widespread public protests, have curtailed the commission’s investigative powers, making it more difficult for the agency to pursue high-profile corruption cases. Critics argue that these changes have been designed to protect political elites and undermine the anti-corruption agenda that Jokowi initially championed.
Similarly, the Constitutional Court, which played a pivotal role in safeguarding Indonesia’s democracy, has faced challenges under Jokowi’s rule. Allegations of interference in the court’s decisions and appointments have raised concerns about its independence. The court, which once served as a check on executive power, is perceived by many as having become increasingly compliant with the government’s wishes. This perception has only been reinforced by a series of controversial rulings that appear to favor Jokowi’s political ambitions and those of his allies.
Jokowi’s Popularity Amid Democratic Regression
Despite these democratic setbacks, Jokowi’s popularity has remained remarkably high. His approval rating consistently exceeds 70%, a testament to his enduring appeal among the Indonesian populace. Several factors contribute to Jokowi’s popularity, including his image as a man of the people, his commitment to infrastructure development, and his efforts to improve Indonesia’s economy. Jokowi’s humble background as a furniture businessman and his reputation for being approachable and down-to-earth have endeared him to many Indonesians, who see him as a leader who understands their everyday struggles.
However, Jokowi’s popularity does not necessarily equate to support for democratic principles. Many of his supporters prioritize economic stability and development over issues of governance and institutional integrity. Jokowi’s success in delivering tangible infrastructure projects, such as new roads, ports, and airports, has won him praise and bolstered his standing among the electorate. As a result, concerns about democratic backsliding may not resonate as strongly with the broader public, allowing Jokowi to maintain his influence even as he faces criticism from civil society groups and political opponents.
Alliance with Prabowo Subianto and the Emergence of KIM-Plus
In recent years, Jokowi’s political strategy has focused on building alliances that would allow him to retain influence after leaving office. One of the most notable developments in this regard has been his alliance with former rival Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo, a controversial figure with a history of human rights abuses, was Jokowi’s main competitor in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections. However, in a surprising turn of events, the two politicians have joined forces, forming the Advance Indonesia Coalition, known as KIM, and later KIM-Plus.
Jokowi’s decision to back Prabowo’s presidential ambitions was marked by his move to offer his son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as Prabowo’s vice-presidential candidate. This alliance was facilitated by Jokowi’s brother-in-law, Anwar Usman, who, as the chief justice of the Constitutional Court, played a crucial role in allowing Gibran to bypass the 40-year minimum age requirement for vice-presidential candidates. This controversial and nepotistic decision raised eyebrows and led to accusations of ethical misconduct. Although Usman was removed from his position as chief justice, the decision stood, and the Prabowo-Gibran ticket won in a landslide.
The formation of KIM-Plus, with its inclusion of former political opponents seeking positions within the new administration, has further solidified Jokowi’s influence. This coalition represents a consolidation of power that brings together various factions of Indonesia’s political elite, all aligned under Jokowi’s leadership. By aligning with Prabowo and orchestrating the rise of his son, Jokowi has not only ensured his political survival but has also positioned himself to shape Indonesia’s political landscape in the years to come.
Shifts in Party Alliances and the Rise of a Political Dynasty
Jokowi’s maneuvers to maintain political influence have included shifts in party alliances and efforts to establish a political dynasty. In a significant move, Jokowi distanced himself from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the party that had been instrumental in his rise to power. Instead, he sought to create a new political base, aligning himself with the Golkar party, Indonesia’s second-largest political party. This shift was marked by the resignation of Golkar’s leader, Airlangga Hartarto, amid corruption allegations, and his replacement by Bahlil Lahadalia, a known Jokowi loyalist. This move has been likened to a political “coup,” signaling Jokowi’s intent to control Golkar and use it as a platform for his continued influence.
Moreover, Jokowi’s ambitions to establish a political dynasty have come to the forefront, with both of his sons entering the political arena. Gibran’s successful bid to become Prabowo’s vice-presidential candidate marked the first step in this direction. Meanwhile, Jokowi’s youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep, has also been poised to enter politics. Jokowi’s backing of Kaesang to run for governor of Central Java faced legal obstacles due to Kaesang’s age, as gubernatorial candidates are required to be at least 30 years old. However, a favorable ruling from the Supreme Court appeared to clear the way for Kaesang by allowing candidates to be 30 at the time of inauguration rather than nomination.
Setbacks and Judicial Defiance
Despite Jokowi’s careful planning, his efforts to consolidate power recently encountered significant setbacks. On August 20, the Constitutional Court, which many perceived as having become compliant under Jokowi’s influence, delivered two decisions that challenged his plans. In a unanimous ruling, the court clarified that the minimum age requirement for gubernatorial candidates applied at the time of nomination, not inauguration. This ruling effectively barred Kaesang from running for governor of Central Java.
Additionally, the court reduced the nomination threshold required for political parties to field gubernatorial candidates. Previously, a party or coalition needed to have either 20% of seats or 25% of total votes in a provincial parliament to nominate a candidate. The court’s decision lowered this threshold to just 7.5% of votes, making it easier for parties like the PDI-P to nominate candidates in key elections, such as the upcoming Jakarta gubernatorial race. This decision opened the door for PDI-P leader Megawati Soekarnoputri to nominate a candidate, potentially challenging Jokowi’s ally, Ridwan Kamil, and backing Jokowi’s rival, Anies Baswedan.
The Constitutional Court has similarly suffered under Jokowi’s presidency. Once seen as a bulwark of judicial independence, the court has been subjected to increasing political pressure. Jokowi’s intervention in the court’s proceedings, particularly in cases that threatened his political interests, has raised concerns about the erosion of judicial independence in Indonesia. One of the most glaring examples of this was the court’s decision to lower the age limit for vice-presidential candidates, which allowed Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, to be nominated as Prabowo Subianto’s running mate in the 2024 presidential election. The court’s ruling was widely seen as nepotistic and sparked outrage among legal experts and civil society activists, who accused the court of bending to Jokowi’s will.
In addition to undermining key institutions, Jokowi’s administration has also been accused of intimidating and weakening the civil society organizations that played a critical role in Indonesia’s democratization process after the fall of Suharto. Throughout his presidency, there have been numerous reports of harassment and persecution of activists, journalists, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) critical of the government. The use of legal instruments such as the Information and Electronic Transactions Law (UU ITE) to silence dissent has become increasingly common. This law, originally intended to combat online defamation, has been weaponized to target activists and journalists, leading to a chilling effect on free speech and civic activism in the country.
Jokowi’s Popularity Amid Democratic Regression
Despite these troubling trends, Jokowi has managed to maintain high levels of popularity throughout his presidency. His focus on economic development, particularly in infrastructure, has earned him widespread support among the Indonesian electorate. Under Jokowi, Indonesia has seen significant investments in roads, airports, ports, and other infrastructure projects, which have helped boost economic growth and reduce poverty in many regions.
Moreover, Jokowi’s personal style—down-to-earth, approachable, and seen as a man of the people—has resonated with many Indonesians. His image as a non-elite leader who rose from humble beginnings has helped him maintain a strong connection with voters, even as his administration’s democratic credentials have come under fire.
As Jokowi’s final term comes to an end, there have been growing concerns about his attempts to maintain influence and power beyond his presidency. Despite constitutional provisions that limit the presidency to two terms, there have been calls from some of Jokowi’s supporters for constitutional amendments that would allow him to run for a third term. While these efforts did not gain significant traction, they underscore Jokowi’s determination to remain a key player in Indonesian politics.
Alliance with Prabowo Subianto
One of Jokowi’s most significant moves to secure his influence post-presidency has been his alliance with Prabowo Subianto, a former rival who is now poised to succeed him as president. In a surprising political maneuver, Jokowi abandoned the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the party that had backed his rise to power, and threw his support behind Prabowo by nominating his son, Gibran, as Prabowo’s vice-presidential candidate.
This alliance, formalized under the banner of the Advance Indonesia Coalition (KIM), represents a significant realignment in Indonesian politics. The coalition, quickly dubbed “KIM-Plus” as former opponents joined the fold, has positioned itself as the dominant political force in Indonesia, with Jokowi at its center.
Jokowi’s attempts to create a political dynasty have been another contentious aspect of his final years in office. In addition to promoting his son Gibran as Prabowo’s running mate, Jokowi has also backed his younger son, Kaesang Pangarep, in a bid to become governor of Central Java.
However, both sons have faced legal challenges due to their age, with Gibran and Kaesang both being under the minimum age requirement for their respective positions. These challenges have been met with questionable judicial rulings that have further fueled accusations of nepotism and the subversion of legal norms for political gain.
In response to the Constitutional Court’s decisions, the national legislature (DPR), dominated by Jokowi’s coalition, swiftly moved to pass a new electoral law that would have reversed the court’s rulings. The proposed law sought to restore the 20% nomination threshold and lower the age limit for gubernatorial candidates to 25, effectively enabling Kaesang’s candidacy.
However, this legislative maneuver sparked a massive outcry from civil society. Protests erupted across Indonesia, with demonstrators besieging the DPR and preventing lawmakers from entering the legislative complex. The intensity of the protests forced the legislature to abandon its plans, at least temporarily, and Kaesang announced he would withdraw from the gubernatorial race.
This surge of civic activism, which had been largely dormant in recent years, marked a significant pushback against Jokowi’s attempts to consolidate power. It also demonstrated the potential for civil society to play a crucial role in defending Indonesia’s democracy, even as the political elite seeks to undermine it.
Jokowi’s Next Moves
Despite this setback, Jokowi remains a formidable political force in Indonesia. His alliance with Prabowo and control over key elements of the political establishment ensure that he will continue to wield significant influence after he leaves office. However, the events of August 2024 have exposed vulnerabilities in Jokowi’s strategy. The Constitutional Court, despite years of pressure, has shown it can still act with integrity and independence. Civil society, too, has proven it can mobilize effectively to challenge undemocratic actions.
Looking ahead, it is likely that Jokowi will seek to tighten his grip on the judiciary and other institutions to prevent future challenges to his authority. The DPR is currently considering a bill that would amend the Constitutional Court law, potentially making it easier for the government to remove judges and further erode the court’s independence.
As Indonesia prepares for the post-Jokowi era, the country faces a critical juncture. Jokowi’s legacy will be a complex one—marked by economic development and popular support, but also by democratic regression, nepotism, and political manipulation. The recent defiance of the Constitutional Court and the resurgence of civil society activism offer a glimmer of hope for the future of Indonesian democracy.
However, the battle is far from over. Jokowi’s ambitions and the entrenched political elite will continue to pose significant challenges to democratic governance in Indonesia. The coming months and years will be crucial in determining whether Indonesia can reverse the democratic decline of the past decade and build a more robust, resilient democracy for the future.
