When Justin Trudeau was first elected in 2015, he arrived as a symbol of hope and optimism. His “sunny ways” approach inspired a nation weary of a decade-long Conservative government. However, nine years into his tenure, Trudeau faces his most daunting and uncertain political moment. The Liberal leader’s ambitions to win a rare fourth term are mired in bitter public dissatisfaction, internal dissent, and a threat from a resurgent separatist movement. Analysts and political insiders say Trudeau’s future is increasingly precarious, with even loyalists questioning his viability as a leader.
This week, nearly two dozen Liberal backbenchers sent an open letter calling for Trudeau to step aside, fearing his dwindling popularity could lead the party to a devastating defeat in the next election. The letter, coming just days after a “code red” petition demanded a secret ballot vote on Trudeau’s leadership, has underscored the discontent within his party.
Nevertheless, Trudeau remains defiant. Speaking to reporters, he affirmed he still had the backing of a majority of the 153 Liberal MPs in the House of Commons, insisting that any “robust conversations” on the party’s direction would continue “with me as leader going into the next election.”
But Trudeau’s resolve has not silenced the criticism within his ranks. Political analysts believe that Trudeau’s party, typically unified and disciplined, is feeling the weight of public discontent after nearly a decade in power.
“The prime minister and his team must be feeling the heat from within,” said Scott Reid, a former political adviser to Liberal prime minister Paul Martin. “For every MP who’s willing to voice their concerns, there are likely several more who are harboring doubts but don’t yet have the courage to speak out. This is an iceberg revolt—what we’re seeing is only the tip, with potentially much more beneath the surface.”
Canada has a well-established political tradition: once a leader claims the top job, they rarely relinquish it voluntarily. In the absence of formal mechanisms to oust a prime minister, Canada’s political structure leaves the decision up to party leaders themselves, as seen with Trudeau’s tenacity despite the recent pressure.
“The kind of personality that makes it to prime minister is, by nature, incredibly persistent,” said Reid. “The sense of belief needed to become prime minister is often matched by an unwillingness to simply walk away. That applies to Trudeau as much as it has to past leaders.”
Trudeau’s resilience could be attributed, in part, to the lack of a clear successor within the Liberal Party. Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney has hinted at ambitions for higher office, but without concrete plans. Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly has built significant influence, especially in her home province of Quebec, and Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc is known for his political instincts. Yet none of these figures have openly indicated an interest in leading the party, which leaves the Liberal party’s future uncertain.
According to Reid, any potential leadership race would be fraught with challenges. After nearly a decade in power, the Liberal Party would face an uphill battle to convey vigor and a sense of renewal to voters, regardless of who they fielded as a candidate.
“A leadership race, no matter how open or enthusiastic, will still have to grapple with public perceptions of the Liberals as an aging government,” said Reid. “And given the current climate, that’s not an easy sell.”
For Trudeau, the stakes are particularly high because, as polls indicate, public dissatisfaction appears to be deeply linked to his personal leadership. As Reid points out, Trudeau has become a “lightning rod” for discontent in a way that has hampered his government’s ability to rally public support or pivot its image.
“Polling shows that public frustration with the government is so closely tied to Trudeau himself that it’s almost impossible to extricate the two,” said Reid. “For many, their criticism of his government has morphed into personal disdain for the prime minister.”
A recent CBC poll tracker underscores the severity of Trudeau’s predicament, showing the Liberals trailing the Conservative Party by nearly 20 points—a deficit that is nearly unprecedented for a sitting government. For political analyst Éric Grenier, the poll’s numbers paint a stark picture of voter sentiment.
“In the past, even unpopular governments have rarely fallen this far behind in polling,” said Grenier. “What’s different now is the consistency of this trend. It’s not one scandal or crisis causing this dissatisfaction; it’s a cumulative effect from years in office, one that’s slowly eroding public trust.”
Trudeau’s political troubles extend beyond internal criticism. This week, Yves-François Blanchet, the leader of the separatist Bloc Québécois, renewed a longstanding threat to topple Trudeau’s minority government. The Bloc has demanded increased old-age security payments for seniors, warning that the Liberals’ failure to meet this condition would prompt the party to forge alliances with opposition factions to call an election.
“Trudeau’s days are numbered,” Blanchet told reporters on Tuesday, a pointed comment that has renewed discussions of an early election. For Blanchet, Trudeau’s unpopularity and eroding influence in Quebec could offer the Bloc an opportunity to position itself as a powerful voice for the province in Parliament.
The Bloc’s ultimatum represents an additional layer of complexity for Trudeau, who has already struggled to maintain his party’s base in Quebec. Quebec remains a critical region for the Liberals, and any significant losses in the province would cripple the party’s ability to mount a viable campaign in the next election.
Historically, Canadian leaders who attempt to win a fourth term face nearly insurmountable odds. The last leader to pull off this feat was Sir Wilfrid Laurier in 1908, a testament to how challenging it is to maintain public support for that length of time.
“Securing three terms is a rare achievement on its own, but to try for a fourth as an incumbent leader is incredibly difficult,” said Grenier. “The odds were always stacked against him even before the recent wave of discontent within his party and among the public.”
For Trudeau, Grenier argues, the appeal that catapulted him into power in 2015 has waned as the electorate’s demands have evolved. Policies that once appealed to voters seeking change from the Conservative rule no longer resonate in the same way, and the criticism of Trudeau’s perceived lack of responsiveness and failure to enact change only adds fuel to the opposition.
As Trudeau braces for what could be his toughest political fight, he faces significant challenges on multiple fronts. Internally, he must contend with a party caucus that is divided over his leadership. Externally, he faces mounting public dissatisfaction and the prospect of opposition parties—particularly the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois—rallying for an election in which he would be a major underdog.
Some political insiders have speculated that Trudeau may try to hold off an election until 2025, the latest possible date, giving him a window to address some of the concerns that have disillusioned his base. However, even this delay strategy is fraught with risk.
“The longer Trudeau waits, the more he risks these pressures building into an insurmountable wave,” said Reid. “If he can turn things around, he might be able to buy time, but given the Bloc’s intentions and the rumblings in his own caucus, that’s far from guaranteed.”
Adding to the uncertainty is the potential for future crises, economic issues, or shifts in international relations that could either bolster or further weaken Trudeau’s position. As inflation and cost-of-living issues persist, public perception of Trudeau as an effective leader is already strained. In the coming months, his ability to address these pressing concerns could determine his political survival.
