The United States braces for a monumental presidential election on November 5, 2024, as Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump head into the final days of a campaign marked by tension and intensity. With polls showing razor-thin margins in several battleground states, this contest could become one of the closest in modern American history.
Both candidates are aiming for the essential 270 Electoral College votes needed to secure victory. The winner-takes-all system amplifies the importance of the “swing states,” key battlegrounds that have historically alternated between Democratic and Republican victories. This year, seven such states are in play, each pivotal and locked in tight races.
Here’s a closer look at the critical swing states that will likely decide the 2024 election:
- Pennsylvania (19 Electoral College Votes)
Pennsylvania, often a make-or-break state for presidential candidates, continues its role as one of the tightest battlegrounds. Known as the Keystone State, it boasts a population of over 13 million and a vibrant political spectrum spanning the urban centers of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to its rural areas. Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016, capturing the Rust Belt state by just 0.7 percentage points, only for Biden to reclaim it in 2020 by a slim 1.2-point margin.
Both Harris and Trump have invested significant time and resources in Pennsylvania. The state’s industrial history and economic concerns resonate strongly with voters who remember the decline of manufacturing, particularly in cities like Pittsburgh. Harris’s campaign promises of a $100 billion investment in manufacturing and infrastructure were designed to appeal to these blue-collar voters, positioning her as the candidate ready to revive the Rust Belt.
But Trump has focused on rural voters, rallying support from small-town and agricultural communities with a populist message that condemns increased migration. Trump survived an assassination attempt during a rally in Pennsylvania in July, an incident that seemed to galvanize his base, intensifying his focus on law and order. Polls currently show both candidates neck and neck in the state.
- Georgia (16 Electoral College Votes)
Georgia, a southeastern battleground state with deep political and social divides, is proving crucial once again. In 2020, Biden became the first Democrat since 1992 to win Georgia, reflecting the demographic changes that favor a more diverse, younger electorate. Harris has spent considerable campaign time in Georgia, especially in areas with a high concentration of minority voters, hoping to solidify the Democratic coalition that won in 2020.
However, Trump’s lingering influence in the state is evident. Though he faces legal challenges, including a paused case involving election interference in Georgia, his base remains steadfast. Trump has capitalized on this issue, casting himself as the victim of a “witch hunt” while galvanizing supporters who believe he is fighting for election integrity. Meanwhile, Harris has focused on coalition-building efforts within the growing minority communities in Atlanta and beyond. Georgia’s outcome will hinge on voter turnout, with both candidates aiming to secure every possible vote in a state likely to be won by a slim margin.
- North Carolina (16 Electoral College Votes)
With over 10 million residents, North Carolina is undergoing demographic shifts that are altering its political landscape. Although the state has voted Republican in all but one election since 1980, Harris believes it is within reach for Democrats this cycle. The state’s rapidly diversifying population is changing the electoral dynamics, a trend Harris’s campaign has leaned into by engaging younger and minority voters in urban centers like Charlotte and Raleigh.
North Carolina’s political climate was rocked recently by a scandal involving the Republican gubernatorial candidate, an incident that has left many state Republicans concerned about its potential impact on Trump’s prospects. Additionally, the devastation from Storm Helene in western North Carolina has brought urgent issues of climate change and disaster response into the spotlight, areas where Harris has positioned herself as a proactive leader.
In a state where every vote will count, Trump and Harris’s efforts to mobilize voters could make the difference between a win and a loss.
- Michigan (15 Electoral College Votes)
Trump’s stunning victory in Michigan in 2016 was a key factor in his election, marking a shift in a state that had long been a Democratic stronghold. Biden managed to bring it back into the blue column in 2020, supported by union workers and the African-American vote, primarily concentrated in Detroit. However, Michigan’s 2024 race may be complicated for Harris due to recent criticism from the Arab-American community, which has expressed dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s response to the Israel-Hamas conflict.
This election cycle, Michigan’s diverse communities are weighing critical issues like foreign policy and economic stability. While Harris has sought to reassure voters of her administration’s stance on global conflicts and the protection of minority communities, Trump has tapped into frustrations among disillusioned voters. This evolving dynamic makes Michigan one of the most uncertain yet essential states in the election.
- Arizona (11 Electoral College Votes)
Arizona’s 2020 election results showcased the state’s evolving political leanings when Biden narrowly won by just over 10,000 votes. This year, Arizona could once again be a game-changer, with Trump banking on discontent with the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of immigration and border policies. Arizona’s proximity to Mexico makes immigration a core issue among voters, and Trump’s focus on stricter immigration enforcement resonates strongly with his base.
Harris, however, has also campaigned vigorously in Arizona, recently making a high-profile visit to the border. She reiterated her commitment to reviving a bipartisan border security bill, which she accuses Trump of stalling for political advantage. The promise of federal assistance and resources to address the challenges faced by border communities has helped Harris gain ground in recent polls, making Arizona an incredibly close race as Election Day approaches.
- Wisconsin (10 Electoral College Votes)
Wisconsin has earned its place as one of the most unpredictable states in recent elections. Trump’s victory here in 2016 shocked many and highlighted the potential for Republicans to capture votes in the Midwest. But Biden swung the state back to blue in 2020 by a slim margin of 21,000 votes, underscoring the importance of appealing to Wisconsin’s suburban and working-class voters.
This year, both candidates have kept Wisconsin at the forefront of their campaign efforts. Trump’s team held the Republican National Convention in the state, signaling its strategic importance. Harris, meanwhile, has spent considerable time addressing the concerns of Wisconsin voters, particularly around manufacturing and job security. As polls currently show the candidates within a margin of error, Wisconsin is positioned to be a photo finish, with both sides cautiously optimistic.
- Nevada (Six Electoral College Votes)
The race in Nevada is shaping up to be a wild card. Historically, Nevada has leaned Democratic, not voting Republican since 2004. However, Trump has made significant inroads, particularly among Hispanic voters, who form a large portion of the state’s population and are influential in its tourism-driven economy centered around Las Vegas.
Harris’s team is keenly aware of the economic pressures facing Nevada’s voters, particularly those employed in the hospitality and service industries. Her focus on economic recovery and small business support aims to counterbalance Trump’s message of conservative economic policies and opposition to increased regulation. While Trump held a lead against Biden early in the election cycle, Harris has since closed the gap by honing in on Nevada’s unique economic challenges.
