Australia’s federal political landscape has shifted sharply in early January, with three national opinion polls showing a marked slide in support for the Labor government only eight months after its landslide election victory. While Labor continues to lead on a two-party-preferred basis, its margin over the Coalition has narrowed to its weakest level since the May 2025 election, amid growing voter volatility and a surge in support for One Nation.
The polls, conducted in the first half of January, place Labor’s two-party-preferred vote between 52% and 53%, down from around 55% before the expenses scandal involving senior minister Anika Wells and the subsequent political fallout from the Bondi terror attack. Together, these events appear to have triggered a sustained erosion of Labor’s standing, though analysts caution that the decline may not be permanent.
While all three polls confirm Labor’s slide, they differ significantly on the distribution of primary votes, particularly between the Coalition and One Nation. This divergence highlights the fluidity of the electorate and the challenge facing both major parties in consolidating support.
A national DemosAU poll, conducted on January 5–6 with a sample of 1,027 voters, showed Labor’s primary vote at 29%, down four points from its October–November MRP survey. The Coalition stood at 23%, down one point, while One Nation surged to 23%, a six-point jump. The Greens polled 12%, and all other parties collectively secured 13%.
Based on 2025 election preference flows, the poll placed Labor ahead of the Coalition by 52–48, representing a four-point swing towards the Coalition since the election. DemosAU also estimated a 50–50 split in a hypothetical Labor–One Nation contest, using preference data from the Hunter seat, where the Coalition was eliminated ahead of One Nation at the last election.
Leadership ratings in the DemosAU poll were subdued. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of minus 12, with 41% negative, 30% neutral and 29% positive. Opposition Leader Sussan Ley was close behind at minus 11, reflecting high neutrality but limited positive sentiment. Albanese nonetheless maintained a clear lead as preferred prime minister, 42% to Ley’s 29%.
Similar trends were reflected in a national poll by new entrant Fox & Hedgehog, conducted for News Corp papers on January 5–6 from a larger sample of 1,608. This poll gave Labor a 53–47 lead over the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis and a commanding 56–44 advantage over One Nation.
Primary votes in the Fox & Hedgehog poll stood at 29% for Labor, 25% for the Coalition, 21% for One Nation, 14% for the Greens and 11% for others. On 2025 preference flows, Labor’s two-party margin over the Coalition was estimated at roughly six points.
Albanese’s personal approval remained under pressure, with a net rating of minus 15, compared with Ley’s minus 13. However, Albanese again led on preferred prime minister, 39% to 31%. Party and leader familiarity appeared to favour minor parties, with One Nation’s net approval at minus 1 and Pauline Hanson at minus 3, outperforming both major parties. Greens leader Larissa Waters, by contrast, remained largely unknown, with 45% of respondents saying they had never heard of her.
The Fox & Hedgehog poll also captured strong public sentiment on key policy issues. By a margin of 54–19, respondents supported a royal commission into the Bondi terror attack. A similar 54–22 majority favoured a pause on all migration to Australia except tourism, while 47–26 backed maintaining Australia’s commitment to net zero emissions by 2050.
A third national poll, conducted by Morgan between January 5 and 11 with a sample of 1,676, showed the Coalition edging ahead of Labor on primary votes for the first time since the election. The Coalition polled 30.5%, up three points, while Labor slipped to 30%, down half a point. One Nation fell to 15%, with the Greens on 13.5% and others on 11%.
Despite this, Morgan still placed Labor ahead 52–48 on a two-party-preferred basis, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition since mid-December. Notably, the previous Morgan poll was conducted after the expenses scandal but before the Bondi attack, suggesting the latter contributed to Labor’s further decline.
At the state level, political headwinds for Labor were even stronger. A Queensland poll by Redbridge and Accent Research for The Australian Financial Review, conducted from late November to early December, gave the Liberal National Party a commanding 56–44 lead. Primary votes were 40% for the LNP, 27% for Labor and 16% for One Nation.
Majorities of respondents believed the Crisafulli LNP government had the right priorities and that Labor had not done enough to merit re-election. While some Queensland polls have shown narrower margins, the LNP’s recent byelection gain underscores Labor’s vulnerability in the state.
Internationally, Labor’s polling troubles mirror trends seen elsewhere. In a recent analysis, the UK Labour Party was found to have fallen to third place in national polls, overtaken by both the Conservatives and the far-right Reform Party — a warning sign for incumbent centre-left governments facing populist challengers.
For now, Labor retains a clear path to re-election if an election were held today. But the early January polls suggest the post-election honeymoon is well and truly over, with voter confidence fragile and the political centre increasingly contested.
