The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan will elect its next president, who will also serve as the country’s new prime minister. This leadership election carries substantial weight, not just for domestic politics, but also for Japan’s role in the evolving geopolitical landscape of the Asia-Pacific region. Nine candidates have vied for the top position, each presenting a set of policies aimed at addressing Japan’s pressing challenges. As the race enters its final days, the latest polling places Shigeru Ishiba in the lead, with a narrow three-point advantage over Sanae Takaichi and a significant 17-point lead over Shinjiro Koizumi.
Despite the dynamic competition, many are asking a key question: how much will the new LDP leader depart from or uphold the policies of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who left an indelible mark on Japan’s foreign policy, especially in terms of security. Although debates have revealed a few distinct ideas, the general consensus suggests that Japan’s future under the next prime minister will largely follow the strategic framework Abe laid out—a combination of internal and external balancing to secure Japan’s interests.
A Continuation of Abe’s Legacy: Balancing Internal and External Security
The central tenet of Abe’s foreign policy approach was strengthening Japan’s defensive posture while reinforcing its alliances, particularly with the United States, and expanding partnerships across the Indo-Pacific. This “internal and external balancing” strategy aimed to bolster Japan’s military capabilities while simultaneously enhancing security collaborations with like-minded nations.
Across the debates and policy proposals, the leading candidates have consistently echoed this strategy. Whether discussing defense budgets, military partnerships, or Japan’s economic security, none of the front-runners have proposed to stray significantly from Abe’s security reforms. Abe’s vision for Japan—a stronger, more assertive nation on the global stage, while staying aligned with democratic allies—remains the blueprint.
For instance, under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration, which followed Abe’s tenure, key reforms were made that increased the defense budget, refurbished Japan’s defense industrial base, and reintroduced arms exports, official security assistance, and economic security measures. The next government, regardless of who wins the LDP leadership race, is expected to continue down this path. It reflects both the regional security climate and domestic support for a stronger Japan, given rising tensions with neighboring powers like China and North Korea.
Shigeru Ishiba: The Visionary with a “Japanese NATO” Concept
Although much of the campaign has focused on aligning with Abe’s policies, Shigeru Ishiba has distinguished himself by proposing an original and ambitious idea: the creation of a multilateral security alliance in Asia akin to NATO. This idea, sometimes referred to as “Asian NATO,” would represent a formalized coalition of democracies in the region, united against common security threats. Ishiba has also suggested reforming the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the United States, which governs the legal status of U.S. military forces stationed in Japan.
While Ishiba’s ideas may have struck a chord with some analysts, they have not gained widespread traction, either in Tokyo or Washington. Critics argue that a multilateral security alliance of this nature would be difficult to achieve in Asia, given the region’s complex dynamics and the reluctance of some nations to formally align against China. Furthermore, the notion would require significant amendments to Japan’s pacifist constitution, a politically sensitive and complex issue. Ishiba’s bold proposal has earned him comparisons to Charles de Gaulle, who famously advocated for a stronger and more independent France. But for many, Ishiba’s vision remains a long-term dream rather than an immediately viable policy.
In contrast to Ishiba, Takaichi—a hardliner with ultra-conservative views—takes a more practical approach, advocating for policies that ensure continued U.S. engagement in maintaining a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” While Ishiba’s Asian NATO proposal may appeal to those envisioning a new regional security order, Takaichi’s realism resonates with a broader base of conservatives in Japan who prioritize the stability of the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Japan’s Relations with China: An Increasingly Contentious Issue
Japan’s next leader will also have to navigate increasingly fraught relations with China. In the middle of the LDP race, Sino-Japanese tensions escalated after the tragic murder of a 10-year-old Japanese boy on a street in Shenzhen, China, on 18 September. This incident, coupled with prior diplomatic tensions, has deepened public distrust of China in Japan.
The strained relationship has its roots in both long-standing territorial disputes and more recent provocations. Beijing’s assertive posture in the East China Sea, particularly its frequent incursions into Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands, has fueled anxieties in Tokyo. Earlier this year, a top Chinese diplomat in Tokyo ominously suggested that Japan would be “dragged into the fire” if it were to back Taiwanese independence, raising further concerns about Beijing’s ambitions.
Given this context, none of the serious LDP candidates have proposed a softening of Japan’s stance towards China. The leading contenders, including Ishiba and Takaichi, are instead positioning themselves as defenders of Japan’s sovereignty and security, willing to push back against China’s maritime expansion. This hardline stance reflects both public opinion and strategic necessity, as Japan faces a complex security environment with few incentives to adopt conciliatory policies toward Beijing.
Some observers argue that Japan’s current tensions with China stem in part from Abe’s legacy. During his time in office, Abe sought to strike a balance between deterrence and engagement with China, strengthening Japan’s military while also trying to maintain economic ties and open communication channels to avoid miscalculations. Abe even invited Chinese President Xi Jinping for a state visit, though it never materialized. The next LDP leader will likely continue this delicate balancing act, trying to deter Chinese aggression while keeping diplomatic avenues open.
Taiwan: A Central Issue for the Next Prime Minister
The future of Taiwan is one of the most critical foreign policy issues facing Japan today. Abe, known for his strong support of Taiwan, famously stated that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japanese contingency.” His successors, including the frontrunners in the current LDP race, appear ready to carry on this legacy.
Shigeru Ishiba has been a vocal supporter of democratic solidarity and closer ties with Taiwan. Just before entering the leadership race, Ishiba held a meeting with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, during which he reaffirmed his support for a coalition of democracies to stand against authoritarianism in the region. During debates, Ishiba emphasized that a potential conflict over Taiwan would have significant consequences for Japan’s security, necessitating logistical support from Japan’s Self-Defense Forces.
Sanae Takaichi, likewise, has taken a firm stance on Taiwan, framing a potential Chinese invasion of the island as a situation that could trigger Japan’s right to collective self-defense. This would be a monumental shift in Japan’s defense posture, as it would align Japanese military forces more closely with U.S. forces in a Taiwan contingency.
Taro Kono, another leading candidate, has added his voice to the debate, calling for collective deterrence against China. Kono believes that boosting Japan’s defense spending alone will not be sufficient to deter China and has suggested economic sanctions as an additional tool. However, Kono’s past decision to cancel the deployment of Aegis Ashore, a U.S. missile defense system, has raised doubts about his judgment on security matters, especially as he now advocates acquiring nuclear-powered submarines—an idea that remains controversial within the party.
Internal Constraints and the Shadow of Abe
While the next LDP president will inevitably shape Japan’s future course, they will also face significant internal and external constraints. Economic limitations, bureaucratic inertia, and the complex realities of coalition politics will temper the ambitions of whoever wins the race. Furthermore, Shinzo Abe’s legacy—both as a pragmatist and an idealist—will continue to influence Japan’s foreign and domestic policies.
Abe, despite his strong nationalist reputation, often balanced his hawkish rhetoric with pragmatic compromises, especially in matters of foreign policy. He supported U.S. leadership in the region while seeking economic engagement with China. The next LDP leader will have to navigate a similar path, balancing deterrence with diplomacy, idealism with pragmatism.
As Japan heads to the LDP leadership election, the candidates may still adjust their positions to attract a broader base of support. But one thing remains clear: Japan’s next prime minister will not easily escape the shadow of Abe. Whether they seek to uphold his legacy or attempt new approaches, the imprint of Abe’s policies will continue to guide Japan’s direction in an increasingly uncertain world.
