Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has warned that Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid warfare against NATO member states, even though Moscow is not currently prepared for a large-scale conventional military confrontation with the alliance.
In an interview with German newspaper WELT, Nausėda said Russia’s military resources remain heavily committed to its war against Ukraine, limiting its capacity to launch major military operations against NATO territory. However, he cautioned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly testing the alliance’s unity and willingness to defend its members.
“I don’t think Russia is currently ready for large-scale operations,” Nausėda said. “Russia’s resources are tied up on the Ukrainian battlefield, and Russia is not succeeding there.”
“But Putin is testing us and moving ever closer to Article 5, NATO’s collective defense commitment,” he added.
Nausėda’s comments highlight growing concerns among European governments that Moscow could expand its confrontation with Western countries through activities that fall below the threshold of conventional warfare. These include suspected drone incursions, cyberattacks, sabotage, arson and other operations designed to disrupt critical infrastructure and test NATO’s response mechanisms.
According to the Lithuanian president, Russia is closely monitoring how NATO responds to such incidents and whether member states can maintain a coordinated position when confronted with security threats that do not necessarily constitute an immediate military attack.
He warned that hybrid warfare would continue across Europe, extending beyond NATO’s eastern flank to countries such as Germany and Denmark.
“The hybrid war will therefore continue, not only on NATO’s eastern flank but also in Germany, Denmark and other countries,” Nausėda said, explaining that Moscow wants to assess how determined Western governments are when confronted with provocations.
Russia is testing “how determined we are and whether we will respond collectively when certain red lines are crossed,” he said.
The Baltic states, particularly Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, have repeatedly warned that Russia’s military activities and hybrid operations pose a significant threat to European security. Their geographical proximity to Russia and Belarus, combined with their membership in NATO, places them at the forefront of the alliance’s eastern defense posture.
NATO’s Article 5 is the cornerstone of the alliance’s collective defense system. It establishes that an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all, requiring other members to assist the country under attack. However, the alliance faces increasingly complex challenges in responding to hybrid threats, where responsibility, attribution and the appropriate level of retaliation can be difficult to establish.
Beyond NATO’s security concerns, Nausėda expressed deep skepticism about the possibility of meaningful negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv to end Russia’s war against Ukraine before spring 2027.
The Lithuanian president, an economist who has held office since 2019, said he sees little evidence that Putin is genuinely interested in reaching a negotiated settlement. Instead, he believes Moscow will use the coming winter to increase military pressure on Ukraine, particularly through sustained aerial attacks against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.
“The Russians will only pretend to negotiate. I don’t trust them,” Nausėda said.
He argued that Russia would likely present demands that Ukraine could not accept, making diplomatic progress unlikely in the near term.
According to Nausėda, Moscow’s negotiating position is expected to remain focused on securing concessions from Ukraine rather than pursuing a compromise that could produce a sustainable end to the conflict.
The Lithuanian president nevertheless expressed confidence that Ukraine would withstand the coming winter, despite the continued pressure from Russian attacks.
“If Ukraine gets through this winter, and I am convinced that it will, the chances of serious talks will improve in 2027. I don’t expect them any earlier,” he said.
His assessment suggests that the trajectory of the war over the coming months could significantly influence the prospects for diplomacy next year. If Ukraine maintains its military and political resilience, Nausėda believes the conditions for more substantive negotiations could improve.
For European governments, however, the immediate challenge extends beyond the battlefield in Ukraine. Russia’s continued use of hybrid tactics is raising questions about how NATO can strengthen deterrence, protect critical infrastructure and respond collectively without allowing provocations to escalate into a direct military confrontation.
