Franco-Italian relations and influence European Union trade policy, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is set to visit Italy early next month. The announcement, made during a Paris conference co-organized by leading French, Italian, and German business associations, underscores France’s efforts to recalibrate its diplomatic focus amid evolving EU dynamics.
The visit, expected to take place on December 5 or 6, carries high stakes for both countries, particularly concerning the controversial EU-Mercosur trade deal with South America. France, a vocal critic of the deal, seeks to delay and amend the agreement to protect European agriculture and environmental standards. Securing Italy’s support could significantly bolster France’s position, but Rome’s stance remains ambiguous.
Historically, French premiers and presidents have prioritized Germany for their initial diplomatic visits, acknowledging the Franco-German alliance as the cornerstone of European stability and economic integration. Barnier’s decision to head to Rome signals a potential shift in France’s approach, emphasizing the importance of Italy as a strategic partner in shaping EU policies.
“Italy is a very big country that France has often neglected,” Barnier remarked at the Paris conference, signaling an acknowledgment of past diplomatic gaps. His visit will be the first bilateral engagement with Italy since taking office and follows earlier trips to Brussels, reflecting a broader agenda to enhance regional alliances.
The timing is particularly significant as Germany gears up for snap elections early next year. With Chancellor Olaf Scholz leading efforts to finalize the Mercosur trade deal, France appears keen to pivot toward Italy as a counterbalance in the EU decision-making process.
At the heart of Barnier’s visit lies the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, a sweeping pact between the EU and South American countries aimed at reducing tariffs and bolstering trade. France has consistently opposed the deal, citing concerns over its potential impact on European farmers and the environment. The agreement has also drawn criticism for its perceived leniency toward deforestation and industrial farming in the Amazon.
Italy’s position on the deal is pivotal. While Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani reiterated Rome’s support for the pact at the Paris conference, he emphasized the need to safeguard Italian farmers’ interests. Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida recently voiced opposition to the deal in its current form, adding to the uncertainty over Italy’s commitment.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Sergio Mattarella have publicly endorsed the agreement, highlighting the internal contradictions within the Italian government. Barnier’s visit will aim to clarify Italy’s stance and potentially sway its leadership toward France’s position.
Barnier’s trip to Rome also serves as an opportunity to reinvigorate Franco-Italian relations, which have often taken a backseat to the Franco-German partnership. The 2021 Quirinale Treaty between France and Italy, a bilateral agreement addressing issues such as migration and industrial policy, marked a significant step in deepening ties. However, Barnier acknowledged that more needs to be done to keep the relationship vibrant.
“The Quirinale Treaty set the foundation, but sustained engagement is crucial to make it meaningful,” Barnier stated.
This renewed focus on Italy aligns with broader geopolitical trends, including the EU’s need to present a united front on trade and climate issues amid global challenges.
Italy, as the EU’s third-largest economy, plays a critical role in shaping the bloc’s policies. Strengthening ties with Rome could help Paris build a coalition to counterbalance Germany’s influence, particularly on trade matters like the Mercosur deal.
The Paris conference, organized by Medef (France), Confindustria (Italy), and the BDI (Germany), highlighted the economic interdependence of the three countries. Trade between France and Italy is robust, with sectors such as automotive, aerospace, and energy driving bilateral cooperation. However, disputes over industrial policy and migration have occasionally strained relations.
Barnier’s visit is expected to address these challenges while exploring opportunities for greater collaboration in areas such as green energy and digital innovation.
Despite Barnier’s diplomatic overtures, securing Italy’s support on the Mercosur deal will be no easy task. Internal divisions within the Italian government and the strong lobbying power of Italy’s agricultural sector pose significant hurdles.
France’s opposition to the deal has also drawn criticism from other EU members, particularly Germany and Spain, who see the agreement as a vital economic opportunity. Convincing Italy to join France in opposing the pact could alienate these countries, potentially complicating future negotiations within the EU.
Moreover, Italy’s evolving political landscape adds an additional layer of uncertainty. Prime Minister Meloni’s government has sought to balance nationalist rhetoric with pragmatic engagement in EU affairs, making its ultimate stance on the Mercosur deal difficult to predict.
Barnier’s visit to Rome is not just about trade. It reflects a broader effort to strengthen the EU’s cohesion at a time of growing external and internal pressures. From migration to energy security, France and Italy face shared challenges that require coordinated responses.
By prioritizing Italy, Barnier is signaling a commitment to a more inclusive approach to EU leadership, one that acknowledges the diverse perspectives and interests of its member states.
