In recent weeks, Lebanon has witnessed an unexpected escalation of hostilities targeting Hezbollah forces, as Israeli intelligence is allegedly utilizing rigged pagers and walkie-talkies to carry out audacious strikes. This development has not only raised the stakes in Lebanon but also introduced a new dimension of technological warfare, marking a further escalation in the long-standing tension between Hezbollah and Israel.
As the conflict spirals, it risks drawing more actors into a geopolitical struggle that has threatened to envelop the region since October of last year, fueled by the continuing crisis in Gaza and the increasingly volatile situation in southern Lebanon.
Rigged Devices and Asymmetric Warfare
The use of rigged devices, such as pagers and walkie-talkies, highlights the growing role of asymmetric warfare in the region. These strikes, reportedly orchestrated by Israel, have allowed for precision attacks without engaging in full-scale military confrontations. While Hezbollah has historically maintained strongholds in southern Lebanon, their vulnerability to technological sabotage indicates that Israel has adapted to new methods of subversive warfare that exploit Hezbollah’s reliance on traditional forms of communication.
This form of warfare draws attention to the increasing role technology plays in modern conflicts, where the battlefield is no longer defined by tanks and troops but by intelligence and sophisticated tech-driven tactics. For Hezbollah, this marks a dangerous turn, as it struggles to maintain a technological edge while facing a formidable opponent that has been experimenting with high-tech, often low-cost, methods of weakening adversaries.
UAE’s Strategic Shift: A Major Defense Partner of the U.S.
Meanwhile, the larger geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East reveals shifting alliances and evolving defense strategies that are reshaping the entire region. On the same timeline, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has emerged as a pivotal player. UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan recently made his first official visit to the White House, where Washington conferred upon Abu Dhabi the title of a “major defense partner,” a position previously reserved for India.
This development raises eyebrows, not for the recognition itself but for the timing. Despite assuming the presidency in 2022, bin Zayed had delayed his visit to the U.S. until now. This move underscores the strategic recalculations in the Middle East as countries like the UAE take on roles previously dominated by the U.S., not just militarily but politically and economically as well. With Abu Dhabi often following a geoeconomic, rather than geostrategic, trajectory, the UAE has secured its position as a pragmatic state that prioritizes multifaceted diplomacy, engaging with powers like Russia, Iran, and even the Taliban, despite their conflicts with U.S. policy.
As Anwar Gargash, a senior Emirati diplomatic advisor, aptly stated, “We’re in less of a geostrategic and more of a geoeconomic phase.” This assertion encapsulates the shifting mindset in the region, where power is measured by economic influence as much as military might.
New Defense Actors in Middle East
The UAE’s visit to Washington highlights the growing competition in the global arms market, particularly within the Middle East. The Arab world has become one of the largest consumers of defense technologies. Between 2019 and 2023, five Arab countries ranked among the top weapons importers worldwide. Saudi Arabia leads this list, followed by the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Egypt.
Yet, even as Western military technology continues to dominate the arsenals of these nations, two critical factors are reshaping procurement patterns. First, the nature of modern warfare has shifted towards asymmetric and technologically driven engagements. This shift, seen in conflicts from Ukraine to Nagorno-Karabakh, highlights how drones, electronic warfare, and cyber capabilities are now vital in military strategies, reducing the need for large-scale, conventional weapon systems.
Second, there is a growing demand among Middle Eastern nations to diversify their defense suppliers. The waning influence of the U.S. as a primary security provider in the region has opened the door for emerging players like China, Türkiye, and South Korea to offer alternative solutions. These countries, unburdened by the restrictive conditions often attached to U.S. arms sales, provide a more flexible and politically expedient option for nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
U.S. Retreat: Lessons from Saudi Drone Strikes
One of the most striking examples of America’s reduced appetite for direct intervention in Middle Eastern conflicts occurred in 2019, when Yemen’s Houthi militants carried out drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s main oil facilities. Despite the significance of the attack, which crippled a critical artery of Saudi Arabia’s economy, the U.S. response was notably restrained. This episode sent a clear message to Riyadh and other regional powers that Washington would no longer provide the unflinching military backing it once did, even under the Trump administration, which was expected to take a harder line against Iranian-backed groups like the Houthis.
This shift has led to significant diplomatic recalibrations. Saudi Arabia has sought to normalize ties with Iran, opening diplomatic channels with Tehran and its proxies in Yemen. Similarly, the UAE has kept its commitment to the Abraham Accords, maintaining relations with Israel despite the ongoing war in Gaza, while smaller Gulf states like Bahrain have quietly mended fences with Iran.
Diversifying Defense Partnerships: China, Türkiye, and South Korea
In response to these evolving dynamics, countries like China and Türkiye have moved quickly to fill the void left by the U.S. China’s arms sales to both Iran and the Arab Gulf states illustrate its delicate balancing act in the region. Beijing has strengthened ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, selling them advanced military hardware like drones, while also maintaining its strategic partnership with Tehran. These deals are often free from the political strings attached to U.S. or European sales, making Chinese products especially attractive to Gulf nations seeking to bolster their military capabilities without being drawn into broader geopolitical conflicts.
Meanwhile, Türkiye has become a key player in the defense market, particularly with its cutting-edge drone technology. Turkish drones, such as the Bayraktar TB2, have been sold to multiple Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and reportedly the UAE. This not only signals Türkiye’s rising influence in the region but also serves as a way for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to strengthen economic and political ties with his neighbors. In a region where political rivalries run deep, defense cooperation has become a powerful tool for diplomacy.
South Korea has also made significant inroads into the Middle Eastern defense market. Its air defense systems have been adopted by both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and there is growing interest in South Korean military aviation technology. Egypt, for example, is considering purchasing South Korean-made jet trainers as part of its broader efforts to modernize its air force.
Abraham Accords and the Defense Industry
One of the most intriguing aspects of the Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, was the potential for Arab countries to gain access to Israeli defense technologies. Israel, long seen as a pariah in the Arab world, has some of the most advanced military hardware in the region. However, the ongoing conflict in Gaza has complicated these defense deals, with many Arab countries distancing themselves from Israel, at least temporarily.
Furthermore, Israel has been hesitant to share its most advanced military technology with its new partners in the Gulf. For instance, when the UAE sought to purchase F-35 fighter jets from the U.S., Israel expressed concerns about maintaining its air superiority in the region, complicating the deal. This underscores the delicate balance between cooperation and competition in the post-Abraham Accords Middle East.
As the conflict in Lebanon heats up, and as regional powers recalibrate their defense strategies, the Middle East is entering a new phase of geopolitical realignment. The rise of asymmetric warfare, the decline of U.S. hegemony, and the growing influence of new defense suppliers have transformed the security landscape.
Countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are increasingly looking beyond traditional alliances, turning to emerging powers like China, Türkiye, and South Korea to secure their future in an unpredictable region. In this context, the battle over defense contracts is not just about military hardware, but about shaping the future of the Middle East.
