In a shock twist for international politics, Middle Eastern leaders are now recalibrating their strategies to align with the new reality of Donald Trump as the president-elect of the United States. Although he is a known figure this time around, reactions to his return are split across the region. For some, Trump’s victory brings renewed optimism for favorable foreign policies, while for others, it’s a source of deep concern.
The significance of a second Trump term lies in his unique position: without the need for re-election in 2028, he is more likely to pursue bold, often controversial, moves to cement his legacy. This, coupled with his established “America First” approach, makes him one of the most unpredictable players on the global stage. For Middle Eastern nations, Trump’s return presents both opportunities and serious challenges, especially in the context of escalating conflicts and shifting power dynamics.
Israel stands as one of the primary beneficiaries of Trump’s re-election. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasted no time in congratulating the president-elect, signaling an eagerness to renew the close relationship the two leaders shared during Trump’s first term. During that time, Trump took several unprecedented steps in favor of Israel, including recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, acknowledging Israeli sovereignty over the annexed Golan Heights, and brokering the Abraham Accords—a set of normalization agreements between Israel and various Arab nations.
In the current climate of heightened regional tension, it is anticipated that Trump may go even further by refraining from intervening in Israel’s military or diplomatic actions. His statement about potentially “letting Israel finish the job” has been interpreted as a green light for Netanyahu to continue aggressive policies in Gaza and Lebanon without facing the usual calls for restraint from Washington.
At least in the short term, the Palestinians are expected to bear the brunt of these policy shifts. Trump has not laid out a clear vision for peace between Israel and Palestine, and his prior administration notably rejected the view that Israeli settlements in the West Bank were a barrier to peace. This tacit endorsement may embolden settlers further and likely result in the expansion of Israeli claims in the West Bank. With the appointment of Elise Stefanik—a staunch supporter of both Trump and Israel—as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Israel is also expected to benefit from consistent American support in the global arena, minimizing any backlash to its policies.
For the Palestinian leadership, these developments are ominous. With de facto American approval of increased settlement activity, the chance for a two-state solution appears more distant than ever. However, some analysts speculate that Trump may see resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a powerful way to secure his legacy, potentially devoting resources to what would be an immensely challenging diplomatic achievement. Nevertheless, entrenched animosities and deep-seated Israeli opposition to a Palestinian state will likely keep this goal out of reach.
Two other likely beneficiaries of a Trump administration are Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Both nations experienced a cooling of relations under President Joe Biden, who had described Saudi Arabia as a “pariah” following concerns over human rights abuses, including the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Biden’s values-based approach has created friction with both the Saudi and Emirati governments, who value pragmatism over ideological discourse.
In contrast, Trump has shown little interest in critiquing human rights practices in allied nations, particularly those with whom he shares a personal rapport. This affinity for strong leaders and a transactional foreign policy approach aligns closely with the leadership styles of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ). This has allowed both leaders to secure military and economic advantages from their relationship with Trump, who prioritized U.S. strategic interests over moral or humanitarian considerations.
For Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Trump’s return to office brings a renewal of strong economic and security ties with the U.S., bolstering their ambitious transformation plans. Both nations are currently pursuing extensive reforms aimed at diversifying their economies away from oil, with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s National Agenda focusing on economic diversification, infrastructure investment, and social modernization. Trump’s support for such efforts is likely, especially as both nations deepen their partnerships with global powers like China. In leveraging Chinese investments, Saudi Arabia and the UAE gain an advantage in negotiating with the U.S., potentially pushing for more favorable terms without relying exclusively on Western support.
On the security front, the Gulf states anticipate a continuation of robust U.S. backing under Trump. The administration’s commitment to securing Gulf allies against Iran aligns with Saudi and Emirati concerns over regional stability. For these nations, maintaining close ties with Trump offers a dual advantage: it strengthens their defenses while allowing them the flexibility to pursue independent foreign policy goals.
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If there is a clear loser in this changing political landscape, it is Iran. The Islamic Republic has faced severe sanctions and a maximum pressure campaign that has strained its economy and spurred internal discontent. Although some in Iran’s leadership had hoped for a thaw in relations following the election of a new president in the U.S., any such hope has dimmed with Trump’s re-election.
Iran’s challenges are compounded by its recent support for Russia in Ukraine, a position that has further isolated Tehran from the West. Iran’s alignment with China and ongoing hostilities with the U.S. have restricted its options and stoked regional tensions. Last week’s revelation of an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Trump, as reported by American officials, adds yet another layer of hostility, with Trump reportedly taking the threat personally.
To spearhead his Iran policy, Trump is expected to appoint two well-known Iran hawks to senior foreign policy positions: Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Congressman Michael Waltz as National Security Adviser. Both figures are vocal critics of Tehran and support continuing the hardline approach that characterized Trump’s first term. For Iran, the reappointment of such officials signals a likely return to the policies of intense economic and diplomatic pressure.
Internally, Iran faces uncertainty with the looming question of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s succession. The increased pressure from a Trump administration may further destabilize the regime, which has struggled to maintain control amid economic difficulties and sporadic protests. While Iran has sought rapprochement with Gulf neighbors like Saudi Arabia, its leverage in these negotiations has diminished. Any perceived threat to Iran’s leadership or internal stability could prompt Trump to exert even more pressure, especially given Tehran’s limited options.
Despite the unfavorable circumstances, Iranian officials are exploring ways to engage with Trump’s administration. Reports of outreach efforts by former Iranian officials suggest that Tehran recognizes the severity of its isolation and the need for a strategic shift, although substantive engagement remains highly uncertain.
