Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is being keenly watched by his Western allies as he meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on his first foreign trip since he returned to office for a third term in June.

Mr. Modi landed on Monday, just hours after Russian bombing killed at least 41 people in Ukraine, including at a children’s hospital in Kyiv, sparking a global outcry.

Photos from Moscow showed a beaming Mr. Modi hugging the Russian president. A video of a smiling Mr. Putin calling Mr. Modi “my dearest friend” and telling him that he was “delighted to see him” has gone viral in India.

Mr. Modi’s two-day visit – his first to the Kremlin since 2019 – coincides with a NATO summit in Washington, where the 2022 invasion will be a major theme.

India, a key global economy, has close ties with both Russia and the US, and its partners and officials in Delhi are playing down questions over the timing of Mr. Modi’s trip. They say the annual summit is part of a long-standing strategic partnership, and its scheduling has nothing to do with the NATO summit.

But a sour note has been struck with the US expressing concern. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller urged Mr. Modi to emphasize Ukraine’s territorial integrity during his talks in Moscow.

Mr. Miller also said the US had raised concerns with India regarding its relationship with Russia.

“We would urge India, as we do any country when it engages with Russia, to make clear that any resolution to the conflict in Ukraine needs to be one that respects the UN charter, that respects Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Ukraine’s sovereignty,” he said at a press briefing on Monday.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky went further – and did not mince his words.

“It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day,” he posted on X (formerly Twitter) late on Monday.

NATO Summit and Its Implications

The NATO summit in Washington, which begins on Tuesday, is being held to mark the 75th anniversary of the Western defense grouping, which was mainly formed as a bulwark against the then Soviet Union after World War Two.

NATO countries have been vehemently opposed to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, while India and Mr. Modi have refrained from any explicit criticism of President Putin, except calling for dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the conflict.

As Western nations try to isolate Moscow by imposing sanctions, President Putin has been having summit-level meetings with leaders of key nations like China, India, Turkey, and others.

Some are now asking whether Mr. Modi’s presence in Moscow could be to Mr. Putin’s advantage. Is the message India is sending out playing into the hands of Russia?

“The bilateral visit this time is just a scheduling priority that we have undertaken. And that’s what it is,” Vinay Kwatra, permanent secretary to the Indian foreign ministry, told the BBC ahead of Mr. Modi’s visit, rejecting any connection between the two events.

Historical Ties and Strategic Importance

India and Russia share close defense and strategic relations from Cold War days, and Moscow remains a key supplier of weapons. India, which maintains one of the largest militaries in the world, has long-standing border disputes with its neighbors Pakistan and China.

Experts say Mr. Modi giving importance to Moscow is not a surprise, and the relationship goes beyond defense procurement.

“If you look at the historical trend, it [Moscow] has been one of the constants in Indian foreign policy,” Pankaj Saran, former Indian ambassador to Moscow, stated.

“The main pillars of the relationship include defense cooperation, energy, and science technology.”

Over the years, Russia has provided technical assistance to build several nuclear power plants in India.

Since the Ukraine war began, Delhi has also been buying billions of dollars of discounted oil from Moscow after Western nations imposed sanctions on Russia to limit what it could sell or charge for the product.

Driven by a surge in the purchase of oil, bilateral trade between India and Russia in the last few years has soared to $65bn (£50.76bn). India’s exports to Russia stand at just $4bn.

Indian officials say a key priority for Mr. Modi will be to address this trade imbalance and encourage Russian investment in India as well as moving some defense production to India.

Navigating the US-Russia-India Triangle

For the past 20 years, the West, particularly the US, has cultivated closer ties with India in what many see as a bulwark against the threat posed by an increasingly assertive China.

India also became a member of the Quad – a strategic forum with the US, Australia, and Japan – which is seen as a grouping aimed at countering Chinese influence in the Asia Pacific.

But faced with increasing Western hostility, President Putin has developed closer strategic and economic ties with Beijing. The development has not gone unnoticed in India, China’s long-time rival.

A deadly brawl on the disputed border in the Ladakh region in June 2020 killed 20 Indian and at least four Chinese soldiers and escalated tensions.

There are apprehensions in India that it may be left out of the Moscow-Beijing equation.

“One option currently being exercised by Delhi is to keep the Russia channel open to maintain the friendship and avoid taking any measures which may further aggravate Russia’s drift into Chinese arms that is being caused by US and Western policies,” says Mr. Saran.

Though Delhi has diversified its weapons inventory in recent decades by buying American, French, and Israeli arms systems, it still relies heavily on Moscow, and there have been concerns the war in Ukraine has had an impact on its defense exports.

“There are reports of delays in the supplies of some spare parts and the delivery of the remaining S-400 anti-missile defense system. So, there will definitely be some discussion on this during the visit,” says Anil Trigunayat, a former ambassador and now a Distinguished Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation in Delhi.

Domestic Concerns and International Diplomacy

Delhi and Moscow are not without their own differences. There have been several reported cases of Indian nationals who were lured with false promises of lucrative job offers and ended up fighting for the Russian army in Ukraine. Four Indians have died so far in the fighting.

Indian officials insist that during this visit, Mr. Modi will press his Russian counterparts for an early discharge of Indians – thought to number in the dozens – still fighting in the war.

India is aware that it needs both the United States and Russia to counter its rival China. Hence, it feels the need to strike a balance not to offend either of the two.

“India follows a policy of strategic autonomy and multi-alignments. We have strategic relationships with both the US and Russia. These are mutually exclusive partnerships,” says Mr. Trigunayat.

The balancing act that Mr. Modi is attempting is reflective of India’s broader foreign policy strategy. Maintaining a delicate equilibrium between competing global powers has long been a hallmark of India’s diplomatic efforts. This approach allows India to maximize its strategic interests without being overly dependent on any single country.

Energy and Economic Cooperation

Beyond defense, energy cooperation remains a crucial aspect of India-Russia relations. India, with its growing energy needs, has consistently sought to deepen its engagement with Russia’s vast energy resources. This visit is expected to further solidify this partnership, with potential agreements on long-term energy supply and investments in the energy sector.

Additionally, Mr. Modi’s visit aims to address the trade imbalance between the two nations. India is keen on encouraging more Russian investments in various sectors, including technology, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure. By diversifying economic engagement, India hopes to create a more balanced and sustainable trade relationship with Russia.

Geopolitical Ramifications

Mr. Modi’s visit to Moscow is not just about bilateral relations; it has significant geopolitical implications. As the global order becomes increasingly multipolar, India’s role as a major player in international politics is being closely watched. How India navigates its relationships with Russia and the West will have a lasting impact on its global standing.

The visit comes at a time when the world is witnessing a realignment of international alliances. The traditional US-led Western bloc is facing challenges from emerging powers like China and Russia, who are seeking to assert their influence on the global stage. India’s strategic autonomy allows it to engage with all major powers while safeguarding its national interests.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow is a testament to the enduring strategic partnership between India and Russia. Despite the complexities of the current geopolitical landscape, India’s approach of maintaining balanced relationships with global powers remains a cornerstone of its foreign policy.

As Mr. Modi engages in talks with President Putin, the world will be watching closely to see how India navigates this challenging diplomatic terrain. The outcomes of this visit will not only shape India-Russia relations but also have broader implications for global geopolitics.

India’s balancing act, maintaining strong ties with both Russia and the West, underscores its role as a key player in the evolving international order. The decisions made during this visit will reflect India’s strategic priorities and its commitment to a multipolar world where it can exercise strategic autonomy and continue to play a pivotal role on the global stage.