Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Ukraine on August 23, 2024, at the invitation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This visit comes at a critical juncture in global geopolitics, with significant implications for bilateral relations, defense cooperation, and economic partnerships between India and Ukraine. The discussions during this visit are expected to cover a wide array of topics, with a particular focus on defense collaboration, economic ties, and advancements in science and technology.
India’s defense ties with Ukraine have deep roots, tracing back to the era of the Soviet Union, from which India procured a substantial portion of its defense equipment. Over the years, many of these acquisitions have continued to be of operational significance for India, despite the geopolitical shifts that followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Notably, key defense assets sourced from Ukraine include Gas Turbine engines for the Indian Navy’s warships and the Antonov An-32 aircraft, which are integral to the Indian Air Force (IAF).
The imperative for India to maintain close defense ties with Ukraine has grown increasingly strong, especially in light of the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The conflict has disrupted the traditional supply chains for defense equipment, prompting India to explore new avenues for collaboration, including joint manufacturing ventures that could secure the continued operational readiness of its military assets.
One of the central components of the defense cooperation between India and Ukraine is the Gas Turbine engines manufactured by Ukraine’s state-owned Zorya-Mashproekt. These engines are crucial for powering several classes of Indian Navy warships, including the Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates (Project 11356M). The continued availability of these engines is vital for India’s naval capabilities, particularly as the country seeks to bolster its maritime presence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Moreover, the IAF’s fleet of Antonov An-32 medium tactical military transport aircraft, which play a critical role in air maintenance operations along India’s northern frontier, is another area where Ukraine’s defense manufacturing capabilities are indispensable. The An-32 aircraft, renowned for their exceptional performance in high-altitude and hot conditions, are powered by Ivchenko Progress AI-20DM turboprop engines. These engines, produced at Motor Sich in Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine, are essential for maintaining the IAF’s operational readiness, particularly in challenging environments like the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China.
Despite the longstanding defense ties between India and Ukraine, the collaboration has faced significant challenges in recent years. In 2009, India signed a $400 million agreement with Ukraine’s SpetsTechnoExport (STE) to upgrade its fleet of 105 An-32 aircraft. The agreement was intended to extend the life of these aircraft by 40 years and enhance their avionics. However, the upgrade project has encountered considerable delays, with only a portion of the fleet receiving the planned upgrades. As of 2024, the IAF has plans to upgrade an additional 60 An-32 aircraft by 2028-29, but the pace of progress remains a concern.
Another major challenge has been the ongoing construction of two Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates at the Goa Shipyard Limited (GSL) in India. These frigates, part of a contract signed in 2018 between India and Russia, are designed to be powered by gas turbine engines supplied by Zorya-Mashproekt. However, the conflict in Ukraine has severely disrupted the supply of these engines, casting uncertainty over the completion of the project. The situation has been further complicated by a missile strike on Zorya-Mashproekt’s facility in March 2022, which significantly damaged the plant and hampered its production capabilities.
Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Ukraine is seen as a strategic move to address these challenges head-on and to explore new avenues for defense cooperation. According to sources cited by Bloomberg, Ukraine’s Zorya-Mashproekt is already in talks with Indian private sector companies to jointly manufacture gas turbines used by warships. Such a joint venture would not only secure the supply of critical components for the Indian Navy but also potentially establish India as a hub for the production of these engines, thereby reducing dependency on external sources.
The discussions are also expected to cover the potential for manufacturing aircraft and aero-engines in India, a move that would align with India’s broader ‘Make in India’ initiative aimed at boosting indigenous defense production. The joint manufacture of Ukrainian gas turbines and aircraft components in India would ensure the continued operational capability of key military assets like the An-32 aircraft and the Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates, while also fostering technological transfer and capacity building within India’s defense industry.
Beyond defense cooperation, Modi’s visit is likely to explore opportunities for strengthening economic ties between India and Ukraine. The two countries have significant potential for collaboration in areas such as agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and information technology. Ukraine, with its rich agricultural resources, could be a key partner in addressing food security challenges in India, while India’s growing pharmaceutical industry could provide essential medicines to Ukraine, especially in the context of the ongoing conflict.
Moreover, advancements in science and technology, particularly in areas like space exploration and cybersecurity, could form another pillar of cooperation. India’s space program, which has made significant strides in recent years, could benefit from collaboration with Ukrainian aerospace firms that have expertise in rocket and satellite technology.
Modi’s visit to Ukraine also carries significant geopolitical implications. The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has reshaped the global security landscape, with ripple effects felt across Europe and Asia. India, which has historically maintained a non-aligned stance, has been navigating a complex diplomatic terrain, balancing its relationships with both Russia and the West. In this context, Modi’s visit to Ukraine can be seen as a reaffirmation of India’s commitment to fostering strong bilateral relations based on mutual interests, while also signaling its support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
However, this visit is also likely to be closely watched by Russia, with which India shares a deep historical and strategic partnership. The dynamics of the India-Russia relationship have been tested in recent years, particularly as India has sought to diversify its defense procurement sources and reduce its dependency on Russian military equipment. The outcome of Modi’s visit to Ukraine could have far-reaching implications for India’s future defense posture and its role in the broader Indo-Pacific region.
As Prime Minister Modi prepares for his visit to Ukraine, both countries stand at a crossroads in their bilateral relationship. The potential for joint manufacturing ventures, particularly in the defense sector, offers a promising path forward. Such collaborations would not only secure India’s military capabilities but also contribute to Ukraine’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of ongoing conflict.
However, significant challenges remain. The disruption of supply chains due to the conflict in Ukraine, coupled with the broader uncertainties in the global security environment, could pose obstacles to the successful implementation of joint projects. Furthermore, the balancing act that India must perform in its relations with both Ukraine and Russia adds an additional layer of complexity to the situation.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Ukraine marks a pivotal moment in the India-Ukraine relationship. As the two countries seek to deepen their defense and economic ties, the visit holds the potential to reshape the strategic landscape in the region. By exploring new avenues for cooperation and addressing the challenges that have hindered past collaborations, India and Ukraine can build a partnership that not only serves their national interests but also contributes to regional stability and global security.
As the world watches, the outcome of Modi’s visit will be a key indicator of India’s evolving role in the international arena and its approach to navigating the complex geopolitics of the 21st century. The visit is not just about strengthening bilateral ties; it is also about positioning India as a responsible global player capable of fostering peace, stability, and development in a rapidly changing world.
