India is making audacious moves to become a key player in Africa’s burgeoning defense market. At the heart of this strategy lies Nigeria, the continent’s most populous nation and an emerging military powerhouse. Nigeria has emerged as the heavyweight champion of military spending in sub-Saharan Africa. According to the latest report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the West African powerhouse flexed its financial muscles in 2023, pumping a whopping $3.2 billion into its defense coffers – a staggering 20% increase from the previous year.

For context, sub-Saharan Africa isn’t just a catchy phrase – it’s a vast expanse encompassing four major regions: the bustling economic hubs of West Africa, the wildlife-rich savannas of East Africa, the mineral-wealthy lands of Central Africa, and the diverse landscapes of Southern Africa. Collectively known as Non-Mediterranean Africa, this region is now witnessing a seismic shift in its military spending landscape, with Nigeria at the epicenter of this financial earthquake.

India-Nigeria Relations

With an eye on this lucrative market, India is challenging Russia and China’s long-standing dominance of Africa. The India-Nigeria connection isn’t new, but it’s evolving rapidly. In the fiscal year 2021-22, India was Nigeria’s largest trading partner, and Nigeria was India’s largest trading partner in Africa, with bilateral trade amounting to approximately $15 billion.

However, this trade volume decreased to about $11.85 billion in 2022-23 and further declined to USD 7.89 billion in 2023-24, making Nigeria India’s second-largest trading partner in the African region. The Ministry of Commerce & Industry reports that around 135 Indian companies are actively engaged in Nigeria’s market, with a total investment of USD 27 billion.

In a move that raised eyebrows across diplomatic circles, India’s External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar, made history in early 2024 as the first Indian foreign minister to set foot on Nigerian soil. During his address to the Nigeria-India Business Council (NIBC), he noted that Nigeria is India’s premier economic partner in Africa. His message was clear and bold: “Africa is rising, and India is betting on Africa’s rise.”

LCA Tejas: Targeting The African Defense Market, Chopper Deal With Türkiye

Following this high-profile visit, India wasted no time in targeting the African defense market. In March 2024, India scouted for potential exports. A defense industry delegation visited Abuja, Nigeria’s capital.

The 33-member delegation, led by Anurag Bajpai, Additional Secretary in the Ministry of Defence, included leading defense PSUs and private companies like HAL, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Bharat Earth Movers Limited, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited, Goa Shipyards, Advanced Weapons and Equipment India Limited, L&T, Bharat Forge and MKU Limited.

Start-ups like Zen Technologies, Tonbo Imaging India Private Limited, Ikran Aerospace & Technologies Limited, SMPP Private Limited, and Big Bang Boom Solutions Private Limited also participated, coordinated by the Society of Indian Defence Manufacturers (SIDM) on behalf of the Ministry of Defence. Their mission? To explore business opportunities in everything from small arms and ammunition to cutting-edge cyber defense systems.

India is in talks with Nigeria regarding the export of its single-engine Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas. In December 2023, the Chairman and Managing Director of Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, C.B. Ananthakrishnan, confirmed ongoing discussions with Nigeria regarding the Tejas-LCA. Nigeria joins other countries like the Philippines, Egypt, and Argentina in showing interest in the Tejas. Recently, ‘unhappy’ with the performance of the JF-17 Thunder jets, Nigeria’s Air Force has opted to buy the M-346FA light fighter-trainer aircraft from Italy instead of acquiring additional JF-17s. Currently, the JF-17 Thunder, jointly developed by China and Pakistan, is Nigeria’s most advanced fighter jet. Recent reports indicate that Nigeria is in talks to procure 15 fighter jets to replace its aging Chengdu F-7NI fleet. India is emerging as a potential supplier, offering its indigenous Tejas fighter jet.

The Tejas is a single-engine, multi-role fighter aircraft capable of operating in high-threat air environments. It has been designed for air defense, maritime reconnaissance, and strike roles. Tejas aircraft are set to be the mainstay of the Indian Air Force (IAF), which has already inducted nearly 40 initial variants.

Despite Nigeria’s initial interest in Indian-built helicopters, the Nigerian Air Force (NAF) opted to acquire the first batch of T129 ATAK helicopters from Türkiye in November 2023 to bolster its fight against Boko Haram militants. Previously, Nigeria had explored Indian-built options such as the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas, Light Combat Helicopter (LCH) ‘Prachand,’ Light Utility Helicopter (LUH), and Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) ‘Dhruv.’

A Billion-Dollar Handshake

This isn’t just talk. India has put its money where its mouth is, inking a whopping $1 billion defense deal with Nigeria. In September 2023, Nigeria signed a $1 billion economic and defense deal with India to bolster its defense industry. This deal is a two-way street of epic proportions. On one side, India is rolling out the red carpet for Nigeria’s defense industry, offering a cool $1 billion worth of cutting-edge weaponry. But that’s not all. Indian firms are doubling down on their bet, pledging a whopping $14 billion investment in various sectors across the West African powerhouse.

The agreement, signed with the Managing Arm of the Military-Industrial Complex of the Indian government, aims to make the Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria (DICON) 40% self-sufficient in local manufacturing and production of defense equipment by 2027, with Indian support in funding and expertise. It’s an ambitious target, especially considering Nigeria’s current struggles in weapons production due to what experts describe as a cocktail of mismanagement and cash crunch.

India’s not just interested in Nigeria’s guns and tanks. In a savvy move that would make any economist sit up and take notice, the two nations shook hands on a local currency settlement system in May 2024. This agreement aims to enhance bilateral trade and mutually beneficial investments in sectors such as crude oil, natural gas, pharmaceuticals, power, renewable energy, agriculture, education, transport, railway, aviation, and MSME development.

Military Expenditure in Africa

According to the report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), military expenditures in Africa stood at $51.6 billion in 2023, 22 percent higher than in 2022 and 1.5 percent above that of 2014.

The report revealed that global military spending totaled $4.443 trillion, with Algeria leading African countries in 2023. Algeria’s military spending reached $18.3 billion, the highest ever recorded by the country. Morocco followed with $5.2 billion despite a 2.5 percent decrease in spending. Together, Algeria and Morocco accounted for 82 percent of North African military expenditure in 2023.

Nigeria placed third overall in Africa and first in sub-Saharan Africa as the highest military spender with $3.2 billion, followed by South Africa ($2.78 billion), Angola ($1.27 billion), Ethiopia ($1.227 billion), Tunisia ($1.2 billion), South Sudan ($1.076 billion), Kenya, and Uganda with $999 million and $977 million, respectively.

The SIPRI report indicates that military expenditures in sub-Saharan Africa reached $23.1 billion in 2023, about 8.9 percent higher than in 2022 but 22 percent lower than in 2014.

At $28.5 billion in 2023, military expenditures by North African countries were up 38 percent from the figures recorded in 2022 and 41 percent from 2014. The report indicated that overall, world military expenditure increased for the ninth consecutive year in 2023, reaching a total of $2.443 trillion.

India Quest To Conquer Africa Arms Market

India is keen on entering the African defense market, traditionally dominated by Russia and China. With Russia involved in the Ukraine conflict and China facing global credibility issues, India sees a favorable geopolitical situation to expand its presence in the African defense market.

India’s efforts to sell its domestically produced and competitively priced weapons to African militaries, which often cannot afford Western-made equipment, align with its ambition to increase its global arms trade footprint.

But here’s the kicker: despite all the hype and handshakes, India’s affordable weapons have yet to make a significant impact in the African market. It’s a sobering reality check for New Delhi’s ambitious plans. Will India’s bet on Africa’s rise pay off, or will traditional players maintain their stronghold? Only time will tell. As the dust settles on these high-stakes negotiations, it’s clear that the competition for Africa’s defense market is intensifying.

India’s strategy to penetrate Nigeria’s defense market represents a crucial pivot in its foreign policy and defense export ambitions. With increasing geopolitical turbulence and shifting alliances, India’s timely focus on Nigeria might set the stage for an influential presence in Africa’s defense sector.