North Korea’s military is under increased scrutiny following allegations from the United States, South Korea, and Ukraine that Pyongyang may have dispatched thousands of soldiers to Russia, potentially to bolster Russia’s military effort in the ongoing Ukraine war. This marks an unusual extension of North Korea’s military activities beyond its usual regional focus, and if true, it would be the first confirmed involvement of North Korean troops in a European conflict since the Korean War era.

The Korean People’s Army (KPA) is one of the largest standing armies globally, with an estimated 1.3 million active personnel. Only China and the United States have larger active militaries by number, but North Korea is significantly smaller in population, making its military density one of the highest worldwide.

In addition to active troops, North Korea has approximately 600,000 reservists and an impressive 5.7 million members in the Worker-Peasant Red Guard, a paramilitary reserve. This reserve, though mostly unarmed, serves as a testament to the militarized nature of North Korean society, where virtually every citizen is viewed as a potential combatant.

The KPA is divided into four primary branches:

• Army (the largest branch),
• Air Force (around 110,000 personnel),
• Navy (about 60,000 personnel), and
• Strategic Missile Forces.

Every male citizen aged 17 to 30 is required to serve in the military for a period of 3 to 12 years, an obligation that reinforces the manpower and readiness of the KPA and ensures a steady flow of trained personnel into the reserve.

North Korea’s Military Capability: Powerful but Obsolete?

North Korea stands among the nine nuclear-armed nations worldwide. It has invested significantly in developing ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, from short-range projectiles to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with ranges that could theoretically reach the United States.

North Korea also maintains a massive arsenal of conventional military equipment:

• Tanks and Armored Vehicles: The KPA has over 6,900 tanks and armored vehicles, a mix of Soviet-era models, Chinese imports, and domestically produced tanks like the Chonma-ho and Songun-ho.
• Aircraft: With more than 400 fighter jets, 80 light bombers, and over 200 transport planes, the North Korean Air Force has considerable size, though much of its fleet is Soviet-era and outdated, with some aircraft up to 80 years old.
• Navy: The Korean People’s Army Naval Force (KPANF) operates about 470 surface vessels, including missile boats, torpedo boats, and small patrol vessels. It also possesses 70 submarines, primarily the Romeo-class from the Soviet era and some smaller, midget submarines.

While the vast majority of this equipment is dated and unlikely to match modern U.S. or South Korean equivalents, the sheer volume represents a significant strategic force. Additionally, recent years have seen attempts to modernize the navy, with the development of new warships, underwater drones, and even nuclear-capable missile submarines.

Asymmetric Warfare and Strategic Deterrence

Faced with a technological disadvantage, North Korea has focused on asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter the superior forces of the U.S. and South Korea.

• Special Operations Forces: Elite units prepared for quick, unconventional warfare,
• Weapons of Mass Destruction: Nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons that could potentially deter or inflict significant damage,
• Heavy Artillery: Positioned near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), the KPA artillery could target South Korea’s densely populated capital, Seoul, as a credible threat.

Pyongyang’s ballistic missile program, developed over decades, has also grown into a pillar of its military strategy. The North asserts that its nuclear weapons are critical for its self-defense, deterring perceived threats from the United States and its allies, which North Korea considers aggressors due to their involvement in the Korean War.

Another asymmetric tool increasingly used by the North is cyber warfare. South Korea estimates that 6,800 personnel are dedicated to North Korea’s cyber operations, a domain where the North’s low-cost investment has already led to disruptive and high-profile attacks on foreign entities.

Financial Commitment to the Military: A Heavy Burden on a Small Economy

North Korea’s defense spending consumes a large portion of its gross domestic product (GDP), especially in comparison to other nations. According to estimates from the CIA’s World Factbook, North Korea’s military expenditure is between 20% and 30% of GDP, one of the highest ratios globally. In 2023, North Korea allocated approximately 16% of its total government spending to defense.

Despite these enormous financial commitments, the KPA operates under budget constraints due to international sanctions. This restricts its access to advanced technology and the foreign currency necessary for large-scale military acquisitions, meaning much of North Korea’s equipment remains dated and limited in sophistication.

Strategic Shift? Alleged Deployment to Support Russia in Ukraine

The potential deployment of North Korean troops to Russia could represent a pivotal shift in North Korea’s military strategy, marking its first documented involvement in a major European conflict. The deployment would offer several advantages for both Pyongyang and Moscow:

• North Korean Benefits: Kim Jong-un’s government may view this deployment as an opportunity to strengthen its alliance with Russia and possibly gain access to Russian military technology, particularly in areas such as missile systems or nuclear submarines.
• Russian Benefits: Facing mounting military pressure in Ukraine, Russian forces could benefit from additional manpower. North Korean soldiers are reputed for their discipline and ideological commitment, attributes that could bolster Russian morale and capacity on the front lines.

For the U.S., South Korea, and Ukraine, the prospect of North Korean forces engaging in the Ukraine conflict raises concerns over the broader international ramifications. It could set a precedent for military alliances shifting in ways reminiscent of the Cold War, as well as complicate efforts to isolate Russia and limit its military resources.

The DMZ and North Korea’s Defensive Posture

The bulk of North Korea’s military remains concentrated along the 248-kilometer (154-mile) DMZ that separates it from South Korea. Here, the KPA’s forward-deployed forces are configured to defend against or launch a potential invasion of South Korea. Heavily mined areas, fortified bunkers, and thousands of artillery pieces give North Korea a defensive and offensive capability at the border, making any engagement a dangerous proposition for South Korea.

While South Korea’s forces are modern and backed by U.S. military technology, the high density of North Korean artillery near Seoul poses a direct threat to the South Korean population.

North Korea’s Long-Standing Isolation and Alliance Building

Historically isolated and subject to extensive sanctions, North Korea’s foreign alliances have waned over time, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union. China remains its most vital ally, though relations are complex and sometimes strained by North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. An alignment with Russia, however, could offer North Korea additional security guarantees and access to technology.

For North Korea, supporting Russia in Ukraine might not just be a matter of military strategy but a strategic alliance recalibration. Moscow has refrained from joining international condemnations or imposing sanctions on North Korea. Both countries have also aligned against perceived U.S. and NATO aggression, sharing a narrative that legitimizes their actions as defense-oriented.

Potential Implications for Global Security

A North Korean military presence in Russia could disrupt the already tenuous geopolitical balance if confirmed. The U.S. and its allies may face an added layer of complexity in countering Russian actions in Ukraine if North Korean troops are deployed. Additionally:

• Regional Tensions: North Korea’s neighbors, including South Korea and Japan, may see an increased threat from a North Korea emboldened by its Russian alliance.
• Nuclear Escalation: A closer military relationship between North Korea and Russia could facilitate the exchange of nuclear or missile technology, thereby increasing the threat level in East Asia.
• Global Arms Race: Should North Korea succeed in obtaining advanced Russian technology, this could trigger an arms race, especially in East Asia, where Japan and South Korea are U.S. allies and regional powers.