In a significant development at the recent Pacific Islands Forum held in Tonga, Australia announced that Pacific Island leaders have endorsed a contentious regional policing plan aimed at addressing security concerns across the region. This endorsement marks a pivotal moment in the ongoing geopolitical tug-of-war between China and traditional Western allies, particularly Australia and the United States, for influence in the strategically vital Pacific region.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who was present at the summit, stated that the agreement would lead to the establishment of up to four regional police training centers and a multinational crisis reaction force. This force would consist of approximately 200 officers from various Pacific Island nations, ready to be deployed to regional hotspots and disaster zones as needed and when invited.

“This demonstrates how Pacific leaders are working together to shape the future that we want to see,” Albanese said, emphasizing the regional solidarity underpinning the plan. Albanese made his announcement flanked by leaders from Fiji, Palau, Papua New Guinea, and Tonga, illustrating a united front in the face of increasing Chinese influence.

According to Mihai Sora, a Pacific expert at the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based think tank, the endorsement of the policing plan represents a diplomatic win for both Australia and the Pacific Islands Forum. The forum had previously appeared divided on how to handle the growing Chinese presence in the region, and this agreement is seen as a step towards greater regional cooperation.

China’s regional allies, notably Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands, have voiced concerns that the plan might serve as a “geo-strategic denial security doctrine,” essentially designed to limit Beijing’s reach in the Pacific. Despite these reservations, the leaders at the summit reached a consensus to back the plan in principle. However, the extent of each nation’s participation remains to be decided by their respective governments.

Historically, Australia and New Zealand have been the primary security partners for Pacific nations, often leading peacekeeping missions and providing training for local police forces in countries like the Solomon Islands, Fiji, and Papua New Guinea. However, in recent years, policing has emerged as a focal point of Beijing’s strategy to gain influence in the region.

In 2022, China attempted to establish a comprehensive regional security pact but failed to secure widespread agreement. Since then, Beijing has focused on smaller-scale engagements, providing martial arts training and fleets of Chinese-made police vehicles to under-resourced Pacific police forces.

China’s growing footprint in the Pacific came to international attention in 2022 when it signed a secretive security agreement with the Solomon Islands. The specifics of this agreement have not been disclosed, but it reportedly includes provisions for Chinese police to maintain a presence in the islands. This development caught both Australia and the United States off guard, leading to heightened concerns about Beijing’s long-term intentions in the region.

China’s Influence: A Growing Concern

China’s involvement in Pacific policing has been marked by a series of strategic moves. Beijing currently maintains a small but noticeable police presence in the Solomon Islands, with a rotating team of Chinese officers providing training in firearms and riot control. New police vehicles in the capital city, Honiara, display both the Royal Solomon Islands Police Force badge and prominent “China Aid” stickers, signaling Beijing’s influence.

Earlier this year, China expanded its reach by sending police advisers to Kiribati, further fueling concerns in Washington and Canberra about the possibility of Beijing establishing a permanent military foothold in the region. The fear is that China could eventually convert its policing and security arrangements into military bases, thus extending its strategic reach into the Pacific.

The newly endorsed policing plan is expected to address security needs across the Pacific while offering an alternative to Chinese support. According to Sora of the Lowy Institute, some Pacific leaders see the plan as an opportunity to fill gaps in their national security capabilities. At the same time, Australia hopes that the initiative will reduce the likelihood of China securing a broader regional security agreement.

Papua New Guinea’s Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko expressed support for the plan, indicating a desire to work closely with Australia to implement the proposal. “We are keen to work together with Australia to ensure the safety and stability of our region,” Tkatchenko told reporters.

However, not all Pacific nations are entirely convinced. Solomon Islands’ top diplomatic official, Colin Beck, suggested that his country would need to thoroughly review the proposal before committing to it. “We have a national process that we have to dive into,” said Beck, who serves as the permanent secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “We are currently reviewing our national security strategy, and this will be part of that conversation. The matter is still ongoing, and the forum discussions are not yet concluded.”

The success of the regional policing plan will depend on the ability of Pacific Island nations to bridge their differences and reach a consensus on participation. While the endorsement of the plan at the Tonga summit is a promising start, significant work remains to ensure its implementation.

Australia and its allies will need to carefully navigate the complex political landscape of the Pacific, where historical grievances, cultural ties, and economic dependencies can all influence decision-making. To gain widespread support for the policing initiative, Canberra will likely need to provide assurances that the plan is not aimed at antagonizing China but is instead focused on enhancing regional security and stability.

Strategic Importance of the Pacific

The Pacific region is of immense strategic importance due to its geographic location, abundant natural resources, and control of vital sea lanes. For decades, Australia and New Zealand, supported by the United States, have played leading roles in ensuring regional security. However, China’s growing economic and military power has led to increased competition for influence.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which includes infrastructure projects across the Pacific, has further extended Beijing’s reach, making it a key player in the region’s economic development. While many Pacific nations welcome Chinese investment, there are concerns about debt dependency and the potential for Beijing to leverage its economic influence for strategic gain.

The Solomon Islands’ decision to establish a security agreement with China in 2022 served as a wake-up call for Australia and its allies, highlighting the need for proactive engagement with Pacific nations. The regional policing plan is one such effort to counterbalance China’s influence and to reassure Pacific Island nations of their traditional partners’ commitment to regional security.

For the regional policing plan to succeed, Australia and other proponents will need to prioritize building trust and fostering genuine partnerships with Pacific Island nations. This involves respecting the sovereignty and independence of each nation while offering practical support tailored to their specific needs.

Transparent communication will be crucial in dispelling any misconceptions that the policing plan is merely a tool for excluding China. By emphasizing the benefits of regional collaboration and capacity-building, Australia can position the initiative as a means of empowering Pacific nations to manage their own security challenges.

The plan could also serve as a foundation for broader regional cooperation on issues such as climate change, disaster response, and economic development. By demonstrating a commitment to addressing the full spectrum of challenges facing the Pacific, Australia and its allies can strengthen their ties with the region and counterbalance China’s influence.

The endorsement of the regional policing plan at the Pacific Islands Forum represents a significant step towards enhancing security cooperation in the Pacific. However, the plan’s success will depend on the willingness of Pacific Island nations to embrace it and the ability of Australia and its allies to build trust and cooperation.

As geopolitical competition in the Pacific continues to intensify, the challenge for regional leaders will be to navigate this complex environment while safeguarding their sovereignty and ensuring the well-being of their people. The coming months will be critical in determining how the regional policing plan is implemented and whether it can serve as a viable counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the Pacific.

In this delicate balancing act, the Pacific Islands Forum has the opportunity to chart a course that promotes regional stability, cooperation, and resilience. By working together, Pacific Island nations and their partners can help shape a future that reflects their shared values and aspirations, ensuring that the Pacific remains a zone of peace, prosperity, and mutual respect.