In a dramatic turn of events, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, a 37-year-old political novice and loyal daughter of the influential Shinawatra family, has been elected as Thailand’s next prime minister. This unexpected shift in the nation’s leadership has not only consolidated the Shinawatra clan’s hold on Thai politics but also raised questions about the stability and future direction of the country’s governance.

Parliament voted overwhelmingly in favor of Paetongtarn, with 319 votes for, 145 against, and 27 abstentions. Known affectionately as “Ung Ing,” Paetongtarn becomes the youngest-ever premier in Thai history, representing the fourth member of the Shinawatra family to hold the position. However, her ascension is not without its challenges, as the three previous Shinawatra-led governments were toppled by coups and court rulings.

The election of Paetongtarn Shinawatra marks a continuation of the Shinawatra family’s significant influence in Thai politics. The family’s political journey began with Thaksin Shinawatra, Paetongtarn’s father, who served as prime minister from 2001 until his ousting in a military coup in 2006. Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, also held the prime ministerial office from 2011 until her government was overthrown in 2014.

Paetongtarn’s rise to power was expedited by the unexpected downfall of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who was disqualified by the Constitutional Court on August 14. The court ruled that Srettha’s appointment of an ex-convict with a controversial past constituted a breach of ethics, leading to his swift removal from office. Srettha’s short tenure was characterized by resistance to his populist policies, particularly his digital wallet cash handout scheme, which faced significant bureaucratic and conservative opposition.

A New Era for Peua Thai

Paetongtarn’s election as prime minister comes at a crucial time for the Peua Thai Party, the political vehicle of the Shinawatra family. The party, once celebrated for its “think new, act new” slogan, had been in need of fresh leadership to appeal to a younger generation of voters. Paetongtarn, with her youthful energy and close ties to the party’s founding figures, was seen as the ideal candidate to rejuvenate Peua Thai’s image.

However, her ascent to the top was not without hesitation. Thaksin and his ex-wife were reportedly reluctant to push their daughter into the political spotlight so early in her career, particularly given the risks involved. Paetongtarn’s grooming to lead Peua Thai at the next general elections, scheduled by 2027, was intended to be a gradual process. But Srettha’s sudden removal forced the party’s hand, propelling Paetongtarn into the role of prime minister ahead of schedule.

Paetongtarn’s leadership will be closely scrutinized, particularly her approach to Thailand’s powerful royal establishment. Her father, Thaksin, and aunt, Yingluck, both faced significant resistance from royalist and conservative factions, ultimately leading to their downfalls. Whether Paetongtarn will adopt a more conciliatory stance towards the monarchy or pursue her own path remains to be seen.

The royal establishment’s influence on Thai politics is a critical factor in Paetongtarn’s potential success or failure. Srettha’s ousting and the obstacles that hindered his policies may suggest that the royal establishment is no longer willing to tolerate the Shinawatra family’s influence. If this is the case, Paetongtarn could face similar challenges in implementing her agenda.

Moreover, the question of political amnesty, particularly for Yingluck Shinawatra, who remains in self-exile, could further complicate Paetongtarn’s tenure. Any moves to bring Yingluck back to Thailand or reform the controversial lese majeste law could provoke conservative backlash and destabilize her government.

Shadow of Thaksin

Paetongtarn’s political career is deeply intertwined with her father’s legacy. Thaksin Shinawatra, despite his self-imposed exile, continues to wield considerable influence within Peua Thai and Thai politics at large. Paetongtarn’s critics argue that she is merely a proxy for her father, with Thaksin calling the shots from behind the scenes.

This perception was reinforced when Paetongtarn announced the scrapping of Srettha’s digital wallet handout, a policy that had been central to his populist agenda. Some speculate that the digital wallet scheme will be replaced by new “creative economy” village funds, a concept Paetongtarn discussed during a speech at the American Chamber of Commerce in November 2023. This proposal echoes Thaksin’s own “one village, one product” initiative, which aimed to boost the rural economy during his time in office.

For Paetongtarn to establish herself as a leader in her own right, she will need to convince both Thailand’s voters and international observers that her leadership represents a genuine break from the past. Her ability to navigate the complexities of Thai politics, while balancing the expectations of her party and the demands of the royal establishment, will be crucial to her success.

As Paetongtarn takes the helm, she faces stiff competition from the People’s Party, the rebranded version of the Move Forward Party. Move Forward, which won the 2023 general election, was controversially disbanded by the Constitutional Court for its stance on lese majeste reform. The court’s ruling, which equated the party’s platform with an attempt to undermine the constitutional monarchy, sent shockwaves through Thai politics.

The disbandment of Move Forward has left a significant portion of the electorate disillusioned with the political establishment. A local poll conducted in mid-June showed that Move Forward’s now-banned leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, was the preferred choice for prime minister among 45.5% of respondents, far outstripping Srettha’s 12.85% and Paetongtarn’s 4.85%. The same poll indicated that 49.2% of voters would have chosen Move Forward if new elections were held, compared to 16.85% for Peua Thai.

The People’s Party, which has emerged from the ashes of Move Forward, represents a significant challenge to Paetongtarn’s leadership. The party’s platform of political reform, including changes to the lese majeste law, resonates with a large and growing segment of the population. While the party declined to vote for Paetongtarn as prime minister, citing its commitment to democratic principles, it remains a formidable force in Thai politics.

Economic Challenges Ahead

As Paetongtarn assumes office, she inherits a country grappling with significant economic challenges. Thailand’s economy, which has been slow to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, faces structural issues such as an aging population, declining competitiveness, and rising inequality. Addressing these challenges will require innovative policies and effective governance.

One of the key issues Paetongtarn must tackle is the rural-urban divide, which has long been a source of tension in Thai society. The Shinawatra family has traditionally enjoyed strong support from rural voters, particularly in the north and northeast of the country. However, urban voters, especially in Bangkok, have been more skeptical of the family’s populist policies.

Paetongtarn’s proposed “creative economy” village funds could be a way to bridge this divide by promoting economic development in rural areas while also appealing to younger, more urban voters. However, the success of such initiatives will depend on their implementation and the ability to garner broad-based support.

International investors will also be watching Paetongtarn’s economic policies closely. Thailand’s status as a regional economic hub has been challenged in recent years by political instability and growing competition from neighboring countries. Restoring investor confidence and attracting foreign investment will be critical to revitalizing the Thai economy.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s election as Thailand’s youngest prime minister marks a new chapter in the country’s political history. Her rise to power, while unexpected, reflects the enduring influence of the Shinawatra family and the complex dynamics of Thai politics.

As she takes on the mantle of leadership, Paetongtarn faces significant challenges, from managing conservative opposition to addressing Thailand’s economic woes. Her ability to navigate these challenges will determine not only her own political future but also the direction of the country in the years to come.

Paetongtarn’s leadership represents a delicate balancing act between the old and the new. On one hand, she must honor her family’s legacy and maintain the support of Peua Thai’s traditional voter base. On the other hand, she must demonstrate that she is capable of leading Thailand into a new era, one that is defined by innovation, inclusivity, and stability.

The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Paetongtarn can rise to the occasion and carve out her own place in Thai history. Her success will depend on her ability to build bridges across Thailand’s deep political divides, implement effective policies, and maintain the delicate balance of power in a country that has long been prone to political turbulence.

In the end, Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s journey as prime minister will be closely watched not only by the Thai people but also by the international community. Her leadership will serve as a litmus test for the future of democracy in Thailand and the ability of the Shinawatra family to continue playing a central role in the nation’s political life.