This week, Pakistan is hosting a critical international security meeting in Islamabad, featuring high-profile attendees from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), including senior officials from China and India. The SCO, established in 2001 by China and Russia, serves as a forum for addressing security concerns across Central Asia and the broader region. However, while the meeting’s focus is on regional security, Pakistan’s internal security crisis has come under the spotlight.
An uptick in insurgent attacks, including a bombing outside Pakistan’s largest airport and an assault on a foreign diplomats’ convoy, coupled with violent protests from supporters of a recently imprisoned former prime minister, have raised concerns about the country’s ability to safeguard its people, key sites, and high-level visitors. As Pakistan’s security apparatus faces mounting threats, the SCO meeting presents both an opportunity and a challenge for the embattled government to demonstrate stability and competence.
Pakistan’s security forces, traditionally seen as robust, are now facing an unprecedented wave of violence, particularly from separatist groups and the Pakistani Taliban. Despite repeated government promises to “root out terrorism” through intelligence-based operations and preventative measures, the frequency and scale of recent attacks suggest that insurgent groups are gaining the upper hand in certain regions.
A significant recent example of Pakistan’s security challenges is the insurgency in the southwestern province of Balochistan. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), a separatist group fighting for independence, has conducted numerous high-profile attacks. In the past few weeks, BLA fighters have killed several Chinese nationals in Karachi, Pakistan’s commercial hub, and over 20 miners in a brutal attack at a coal mine. The BLA’s operational capabilities appear to be expanding, with increasingly audacious and coordinated attacks.
Unlike the Pakistani Taliban, which seeks to overthrow the state and establish a caliphate, the BLA’s objective is the creation of an independent Balochistan. However, the two groups share a common enemy in the Pakistani government. While analysts have suggested that the BLA may be receiving some form of support from the Taliban, even without a formal alliance, the rise in insurgent violence has overwhelmed local security forces.
In the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which borders Afghanistan, the Pakistani Taliban has continued its campaign of shootings and bombings, contributing to an atmosphere of instability.
While Islamabad will undoubtedly be placed under tight security during the SCO meeting, the presence of high-level foreign officials has led to heightened concerns that militants may seek to target the event. Though attacking the conference itself may be difficult, given the expected security around it, militants could still carry out attacks in the vicinity or in other parts of the country as a show of defiance.
Security analyst Imtiaz Gul, executive director of the Center for Research and Security Studies, stated that ensuring the safety of the event will be Pakistan’s foremost challenge. “At stake for the entire state is the only mission — how to hold such an event peacefully,” said Gul. “How to get it done without any unpleasant incidents taking place. It’s going to be a formidable challenge for the government to disprove the notion of failures within the security apparatus.”
Adding to Pakistan’s security woes is the economic toll that the recent unrest has taken. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb recently disclosed that the country suffered cumulative daily losses exceeding $684 million due to widespread protests and agitation, primarily led by supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The protests have severely impacted key sectors such as commerce, transportation, education, and the gig economy.
Khan, ousted from office in 2022, remains a polarizing figure. His supporters have repeatedly mobilized in large numbers, often managing to reach the heart of Islamabad despite measures such as cellphone blackouts and road blockades. The government’s attempts to curb these protests, including by shutting down parts of the capital, have exacerbated the already strained economy, which heavily relies on International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailouts and foreign loans to stay afloat.
At a time when the general populace is grappling with surging inflation, rising energy costs, and dwindling job opportunities, the government’s decision to impose a three-day holiday surrounding the SCO meeting has drawn ire. Reports have circulated that wedding halls, restaurants, and markets in Islamabad and nearby Rawalpindi may be forcibly closed for security reasons. Although officials have denied these claims, the perception remains that the government is sacrificing economic activity in its attempt to host the meeting without incident.
Imtiaz Gul remarked that, unlike most high-profile international conferences, the SCO gathering is unlikely to promote Pakistan’s image as a hub of trade and connectivity. “Generally, high-profile conferences are meant to promote connectivity, trade, and improve a country’s image,” said Gul. “But not in this case because Islamabad won’t look like a normal city.”
This shutdown approach, he added, underscores the government’s lack of innovative thinking. “They are unable to use smart approaches and that’s why the easier way is to shut everything down.”
Amid the domestic challenges, the SCO meeting offers Pakistan a rare opportunity to bolster its international standing. It is the first major conference the country has hosted since March 2022, and its significance cannot be overstated. The presence of China, a close ally and major creditor, adds additional weight to the event. China’s interests in Pakistan are both economic, through the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and political, as Chinese nationals have become prime targets for militants within the country.
India, Pakistan’s traditional archrival, is also attending the meeting, sending its foreign minister to Pakistan for the first time since 2015. Relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors have been tense for decades, with both nations engaged in military confrontations and border disputes. Meanwhile, India and China, two of the world’s most powerful nations, have their own border tensions, which adds further complexity to the dynamics of the meeting.
For Pakistan, hosting the SCO meeting allows the government to put on a show of diplomatic engagement and regional leadership. As Abdullah Khan, a senior defense analyst, points out, the event is an opportunity for Pakistan to project international legitimacy amid its domestic crises. “The presence of heads of state and other senior officials will itself be a success as Pakistan will come out of its so-called isolation,” said Khan. “A peacefully held SCO will further improve the country’s image.”
Pakistan’s last major international event, a 2022 conference, was overshadowed by political turmoil just weeks before the ousting of then-Prime Minister Imran Khan. Since then, the country has struggled to maintain political stability. The SCO meeting, therefore, offers a rare chance for Pakistan’s leadership to present a united front, despite the numerous internal pressures they face.
The stakes for Pakistan during this week’s SCO meeting are extraordinarily high. While the conference itself is centered around regional security cooperation, it is Pakistan’s ability to guarantee the safety and success of the event that will be closely watched by both domestic and international observers. Hosting such a high-level gathering, with attendees from both longstanding allies like China and geopolitical rivals like India, will test Pakistan’s security apparatus to its limits.
The government must walk a fine line: it needs to demonstrate that it is capable of managing the insurgent threats that plague the country while also showcasing diplomatic and economic openness. Any misstep — whether in the form of a major attack or mismanagement of the event — could have far-reaching consequences for Pakistan’s standing on the global stage.
For Pakistan, the SCO meeting is about more than regional security; it is about salvaging the country’s international reputation and proving its resilience in the face of daunting internal challenges. With insurgent violence and political unrest simmering beneath the surface, the outcome of this week’s gathering will be a critical indicator of whether Pakistan can maintain control in these turbulent times.
