Pakistan has test-fired its short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), the Abdali (Hatf-II), amid spiraling tensions with India following the April 22 massacre in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir. With 26 civilians—mostly tourists—killed in the assault, and fingers pointed at Pakistan-linked militant groups, South Asia now finds itself on the precipice of a military standoff between two nuclear-armed neighbors.
The timing of the missile test, combined with Islamabad’s rhetoric and military readiness, signals not only a strategic maneuver to deter perceived Indian aggression but also marks a sharp uptick in the pattern of escalation that has plagued India-Pakistan relations for decades.
According to a statement from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the launch of the Abdali missile was part of a broader military readiness drill under the ‘Indus military exercise’. The launch aimed to validate the operational readiness of field units and ensure the technical integrity of the missile’s guidance and maneuvering systems under realistic battlefield conditions.
“The launch was intended to evaluate the operational preparedness of field units and ensure the technical integrity of the missile’s guidance and manoeuvring systems,” the ISPR emphasized, signaling that the test served both tactical and psychological objectives.
Video footage released by ISPR showed the missile’s launch from a road-mobile Transporter-Erector-Launcher (TEL), reinforcing its rapid deployment capability. Observers from the Army Strategic Forces Command, Strategic Plans Division, and technical experts from Pakistan’s strategic research and development community were present at the drill.
Developed by Pakistan’s Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO), the Abdali is a solid-fueled, short-range ballistic missile with a range of up to 450 kilometers. Its mobile launch capability and accuracy—an estimated Circular Error Probable (CEP) of 150 meters—make it a critical asset in battlefield strike scenarios, capable of hitting high-value military targets near the Line of Control (LoC).
Technical Profile: Abdali (Hatf-II)
| Parameter | Specification |
|---|---|
| Designation | Abdali (Hatf-II) |
| Category | Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) |
| Developer | SUPARCO |
| Range | Up to 450 km |
| Propulsion | Solid-fuel |
| Warhead Configuration | High-Explosive, Submunitions, Potential Tactical Nuclear |
| Guidance System | Inertial Navigation System (INS) |
| Accuracy (CEP) | ±150 meters |
| Launch Platform | Transporter-Erector-Launcher (TEL) |
| Status | Operational with Pakistan Army Strategic Forces Command |
While the Abdali’s capabilities are not new, its latest test during a regional crisis makes it a calibrated signal to both India and the international community. Analysts view the launch as a response to India’s heightened military alertness and perceived threats of retaliatory strikes following the Pahalgam attack.
On April 22, a gun attack in the tourist town of Pahalgam in Kashmir left 26 civilians dead and more than a dozen injured. The Resistance Front (TRF), believed to be a proxy of Lashkar-e-Taiba—a group with a history of links to Pakistan—claimed responsibility.
While Indian intelligence agencies were quick to attribute the attack to Pakistan-based militant elements, no conclusive evidence was made public. Pakistan issued a strong rebuttal, denying involvement and calling for an independent international probe.
“India must not jump to conclusions without facts,” said Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar in a press briefing. “We categorically reject all insinuations and demand a UN-led investigation into the incident.”
Despite the diplomatic calls, the mood in New Delhi was unequivocal. In an emergency security meeting, Prime Minister Narendra Modi labeled the incident an “act of cross-border terrorism” and signaled that India would “respond at a time and place of its choosing.”
Since the Pahalgam attack, both nations have reverted to a familiar cycle: accusation, rebuttal, military readiness, and brinkmanship. India’s armed forces raised their alert level, reportedly moved additional troops to forward positions in Kashmir, and conducted large-scale military exercises.
Pakistan, in turn, activated its contingency protocols, redeployed forces across key operational theatres, and suspended peacetime military routines.
General Asim Munir, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, issued a stern warning: “Any misadventure by India will be met with a swift, resolute, and notch-up response.”
That phrase—”notch-up”—is being interpreted by analysts as a deliberate reference to Pakistan’s potential to escalate proportionally or beyond, including the use of tactical weapons if necessary.
India’s military has conducted Exercise Aakraman, involving high-altitude precision strikes and networked command structures. Satellite imagery shows increased movement of artillery and mechanized units near key locations along the LoC.
Pakistan’s ‘Indus military exercise’ featured not just the Abdali test but reportedly included simulated launch sequences of other strategic systems, drone swarms, and joint command operations.
“This is posturing with a purpose,” said Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Talat Masood, a former Pakistani defense official. “It sends a signal that any limited Indian action could face a disproportionate response, possibly on multiple fronts.”
The crisis has not gone unnoticed by the international community. The United States, China, and Russia have all issued statements urging restraint.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly held separate calls with India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. A White House spokesperson said Washington was “deeply concerned” and encouraged both sides to “refrain from actions that escalate tensions.”
China, while avoiding any direct criticism, stated that “stability in South Asia is in the interest of the entire region.”
The United Nations called for de-escalation and offered to mediate—though both India and Pakistan traditionally reject third-party mediation in matters related to Kashmir.
The Abdali missile test has reignited debate about the role of tactical nuclear weapons in South Asia’s deterrence architecture. Pakistan maintains a doctrine of “minimum credible deterrence,” but has made clear over the years that this includes battlefield nuclear capabilities.
India, while possessing a larger conventional force, adheres to a no-first-use (NFU) nuclear doctrine. However, recent statements by Indian defense officials have hinted at possible revisions to that policy under extreme circumstances.
“South Asia is now the most dangerous nuclear flashpoint in the world,” said Dr. Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Stimson Center. “What we’re seeing is a collision of political will, nationalism, and military hardware—with no institutionalized dialogue to break the momentum.”
In both countries, the military escalation is playing out against volatile domestic backdrops.
In India, Prime Minister Modi is under pressure from nationalist constituencies to respond forcefully to the Pahalgam killings. The incident has dominated news cycles and could influence the upcoming state elections in Jammu and Kashmir.
In Pakistan, the fragile civilian government, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, is balancing a severe economic crisis, IMF conditionalities, and now, a military standoff with a historically hostile neighbor. Demonstrating military strength serves as a unifying narrative domestically.
For now, direct military engagement has been avoided. Pakistani intelligence had reportedly anticipated Indian strikes within 36–48 hours of the Pahalgam incident. That window has passed, but the threat remains alive, with both sides on hair-trigger alert.
Experts warn that miscalculation, rather than deliberate action, remains the biggest risk.
“The danger lies not just in a planned war, but in an accidental one,” said former Indian National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon. “The presence of tactical weapons like Abdali only shortens the decision-making window in a crisis.”
The test of the Abdali missile, though technologically routine, carries disproportionate geopolitical weight in a region already teetering on the edge. Pakistan’s message was unmistakable: its deterrent is credible, mobile, and ready.
Yet, deterrence is a double-edged sword. It may prevent war through fear, but also embolden brinkmanship. As long as the core issues—especially Kashmir—remain unresolved, and dialogue channels remain blocked, even the smallest spark can ignite a conflagration.
