For a decade, the Paris Agreement on climate change has weathered shocks that could easily have broken it — from the first term of U.S. President Donald Trump to the COVID-19 pandemic and multiple regional conflicts. Yet, despite political turbulence and economic disruption, the landmark accord that set the world’s framework for collective climate action has endured.
Now, as tens of thousands of leaders in government, business, academia, and civil society gather in the Brazilian city of Belém for COP30 — the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference — the spirit of global cooperation that once defined climate diplomacy appears increasingly fragile.
From November 10 to 21, negotiators will focus on finalizing new national climate plans for the next decade, mobilizing massive climate finance, and operationalizing carbon markets under the Paris Agreement’s Article 6. The venue, deep within the Amazon rainforest, underscores the stakes: a living symbol of the planet’s biodiversity and an urgent reminder of what humanity stands to lose.
But analysts warn that COP30 may expose deepening fractures in the global climate regime — a system that once thrived on solidarity but now risks being overtaken by competition, nationalism, and distrust.
When 196 countries signed the Paris Agreement in 2015, it was hailed as a diplomatic triumph — a short, 16-page document committing nations to limit global temperature rise to “well below” 2°C, while pursuing efforts to cap warming at 1.5°C. The accord was not perfect, but it generated a surge of global unity, described by Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, as “a huge level of energy generated by climate multilateralism.”
Since then, measurable progress has emerged. Clean energy investments have surged. Governments have introduced national climate frameworks, and private companies across industries have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions.
“Thanks to the Paris Agreement, the last ten years have seen cohesion on the overarching aim of climate politics that is unprecedented,” said Indra Overland, head of the Centre for Energy Research at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. “It’s not a silver bullet, but it remains indispensable.”
However, the world remains far off course. Carbon dioxide levels hit record highs in 2024, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Global Carbon Project estimates that fossil fuel emissions will rise another 1.1 percent in 2025, reaching an all-time peak.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently told The Guardian that the 1.5°C target is “dead,” calling the failure to act “a moral catastrophe.”
Geopolitical and economic turmoil — from wars and trade disputes to inflation and energy insecurity — has eroded the sense of shared purpose that defined Paris.
“It means climate change is being pushed down the agenda, domestically and internationally,” Overland said. “Realpolitik has replaced the idealism of a decade ago.”
Li Shuo calls the present moment a “watershed,” shaped by “rapidly diminishing relationships between some countries.” The multilateral system, he said, “is turning in another direction,” toward a more fragmented and transactional form of diplomacy.
The absence of top U.S. officials from COP30 underscores this shift. The United States — long the world’s largest historical emitter — was once a driving force in rallying global ambition. But under Trump’s second term, Washington has retreated from international cooperation, undermining climate finance mechanisms and multilateral commitments.
Trump’s rhetoric, including his recent declaration at the UN General Assembly that climate change is “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world,” has emboldened skeptics globally, said Christopher Len of Singapore’s ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.
“It’s become harder to drive collective action when doubt creeps into mainstream discourse,” Len noted. The tone of global climate politics has shifted: less about existential threat, more about economic opportunity.
“We see more fragmentation — countries focused on self-interest, coupled with fossil fuel pushback. It’s tough to get everyone on the same page,” he added.
Still, some see a potential upside. The absence of U.S. obstructionism could empower others — from Europe to emerging economies — to form new alliances and drive progress independently.
COP30 is expected to spotlight the long-standing tension between the Global North — industrialized nations responsible for the majority of historical emissions — and the Global South, which faces the gravest climate impacts despite contributing least to the problem.
The European Union has reluctantly assumed a leadership role, though internal divisions persist over carbon border taxes and green subsidies. Brazil, as host, seeks to bridge the divide but faces scrutiny over its own deforestation record and credibility as COP president.
That leaves China — the world’s largest current emitter and leader in clean energy manufacturing — as the pivotal actor in this evolving diplomatic landscape.
China now dominates more than 70 percent of global clean-tech manufacturing capacity and leads in the production of at least 15 critical minerals, according to BloombergNEF. Chinese firms produce two-thirds of the world’s electric vehicles and three-quarters of its EV batteries.
Yet Beijing’s climate diplomacy remains cautious. “China’s political calculus is different from its economic one,” Li said. “They prefer pragmatism and are unlikely to overplay their hand at COP30.”
He added that Beijing’s leadership in green industries could eventually translate into greater diplomatic influence — but not yet. “They’re not bringing electric vehicles or wind turbines into the COP. Their leadership is economic, not rhetorical.”
When Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South Korea in late October, climate cooperation was conspicuously absent from the agenda. Instead, discussions centered on trade, rare earth metals, and energy — a sign of how climate priorities have receded in U.S.–China relations.
Southeast Asia’s response remains mixed. The region is among the most vulnerable to climate impacts — yet remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels.
Singapore was the only ASEAN nation to submit its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) before the February 2025 deadline, later extended to September. Its roadmap includes importing up to 6GW of low-carbon electricity by 2035, investing in carbon capture and nuclear options, and phasing out pure combustion-engine vehicles by 2040.
Malaysia and Indonesia followed suit in late October. Malaysia projects its emissions will peak between 2029 and 2034, while Indonesia’s emissions are expected to peak by 2030 — though that goal depends heavily on forestry offsets and lacks a clear coal exit plan.
“Indonesia’s targets are a bitter disappointment,” said Sisilia Nurmala Dewi of 350.org. “There’s a glaring disconnect between presidential rhetoric and policy reality.”
Overland said most ASEAN members remain “climate laggards” that respond to — rather than shape — global trends. “If climate cooperation unravels internationally, ASEAN countries will struggle to stay engaged.”
Still, Len believes the region has untapped potential. “With stronger cooperation within ASEAN and tangible success stories, Southeast Asia could become a policy innovator rather than a follower,” he said.
The problem, however, is financing. Many of the region’s pledges are conditional on international support. “Without adequate funding, much remains aspirational,” Len warned. “We are in a race against time.”
As COP30 opened, host nation Brazil unveiled the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, an ambitious initiative by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to reward developing nations for protecting rainforests.
The blended finance mechanism — combining government, philanthropic, and private capital — aims to mobilize up to US$125 billion. Early pledges came during last week’s leaders’ summit in Belém.
This initiative complements the broader global finance goal established at COP29: US$300 billion per year by 2035, with an aspirational goal of mobilizing US$1.3 trillion annually for vulnerable nations.
Yet experts warn the sums, though huge, still fall short of the estimated trillions needed to transition the global economy and protect the most affected communities.
“The erosion of global leadership means those countries must now fill the gap — with courage, innovation, and moral clarity — if COP30 is to deliver,” said Rueanna Haynes, head of diplomacy at Climate Analytics in Berlin.
Despite the geopolitical turbulence, analysts insist that the Paris framework remains vital — a foundation for progress, even if slow.
Haynes described the current state of climate diplomacy as “fragile but not without hope.” Progress, she said, will likely be incremental rather than transformative.
Li likened the Paris Agreement to a road leading toward sustainability. “But the drivers — the countries — decide which gear to use. Some are driving in the wrong direction, even crashing into others,” he said. “You cannot blame the road for that.”
As the world’s leaders deliberate under the canopy of the Amazon, COP30 is shaping up as more than another conference. It is a test — of whether nations can still summon the political will to cooperate in an era defined by division, and whether the fragile architecture of Paris can endure another decade of storms.
If it fails, the consequences will not just be diplomatic. They will be planetary.
