In the wake of heightened maritime tensions, the Philippines is intensifying its efforts to enhance its defense capabilities by acquiring additional India-made BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, aiming them at China in the contested South China Sea. This strategic move underscores the Philippines’ determination to fortify its coastal defenses and assert its sovereignty in the region.

The Philippine Marine Corps (PMC) has set its sights on bolstering its arsenal with two more batteries of the BrahMos missiles by 2026. According to a report by WION, this addition will significantly enhance the Philippines’ ability to deter and counter maritime threats. Currently, the PMC is on track to receive three BrahMos batteries, each equipped with four launchers and three missiles capable of striking targets up to 290 kilometers away.

The introduction of the BrahMos missiles is poised to provide a substantial boost to the Philippines’ coastal defense strategy. The missiles’ high speed and long range make them formidable weapons against maritime threats, thereby strengthening the nation’s defensive posture. This capability is particularly crucial given the Philippines’ ongoing clashes with China over territorial claims in the South China Sea.

The deepening defense relationship between the Philippines and India is indicative of a broader strategic shift. By choosing to export the BrahMos missiles to the Philippines, India is extending its influence beyond the Indian Ocean to the Indo-Pacific region. This move comes at a time when both nations are experiencing tense relations with China—Manila in the South China Sea and Delhi in the Himalayas.

Building a Missile Base in Zambales

In June 2024, the Philippines took a significant step in bolstering its defense posture by constructing a base for its newly acquired BrahMos missiles at the Naval Station Leovigildo Gantioqui in Zambales, Western Luzon. This base, strategically located overlooking the disputed waters, is set to house BrahMos missile batteries capable of striking the China-occupied, Philippine-claimed Scarborough Shoal.

Despite these advancements, the Philippines faces several challenges. One significant issue is the lack of long-range intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities and over-the-horizon (OTH) radar. Currently, Manila relies on a small fleet of drones and aircraft for ISR tasks, potentially limiting the effective range of its BrahMos missiles in a conflict scenario with China.

Additionally, the Philippines’ lack of air defense assets poses a dilemma. It may need to choose between defending its military installations, such as the BrahMos missile base, and critical infrastructure and population areas. Furthermore, logistical hurdles, including vulnerability to naval blockade and the inability to domestically manufacture BrahMos missiles to sustain stockpiles, could undermine the deterrent impact of its missile arsenal.

The expectations of the Philippines regarding US support in a potential conflict with China remain ambiguous. The US’ muted response to the Philippines’ June 2024 maritime standoff with China raises questions about Washington’s willingness to confront Beijing over disputed features in the South China Sea. Historical precedents, such as the US’ lack of assistance during the 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff and its refusal in 2016 to enforce the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling against China, suggest a pattern of reluctance.

The Philippines’ strategic location makes it vulnerable to China’s power projection capabilities from occupied sea features such as Mischief Reef, Fiery Cross Reef, and Subi Reef. An interactive map by the Center of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) illustrates that these features can house cruise missiles, bombers, and fighter aircraft, placing the entire Philippines and the South China Sea within their range.

This vulnerability might explain why the US has not pushed to re-establish permanent military bases in the Philippines, despite the capability to do so. Instead, the US rotates troops and equipment through the Philippines under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which has opened more Philippine bases to the US military under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

China’s Aggressive Tactics

China’s increasingly aggressive “gray zone” tactics against the Philippines add another layer of complexity. According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), China has been using its maritime militia and law enforcement vessels to ram, board, and impede resupply missions to the Philippines’ occupied features in the region. These actions, while stopping short of armed conflict, put the Philippines in a precarious position, forcing it to navigate between de-escalation and actions that China could exploit as a pretext for further forceful measures.

The acquisition of more BrahMos missiles could address some of the Philippines’ critical vulnerabilities as a US ally. For instance, deploying additional BrahMos missile sites in Palawan could target Chinese military installations and aircraft parked on Mischief Reef, Fiery Cross Reef, and Subi Reef. This capability could help forestall the threat of a preemptive strike on US forces stationed in the Philippines under EDCA.

If the Philippines moves forward with acquiring more BrahMos missiles, it could signal to the US and allied defense planners that it is capable of defending itself against China’s military force. This could justify a more extensive military presence by the US and its allies on Philippine territories.

Providing targeting data to the Philippines’ BrahMos batteries might be a viable way for the US to enhance Manila’s defenses without directly confronting China. However, no number of BrahMos missiles alone can resolve the challenges posed by China’s ramped-up gray zone tactics.

The Philippines’ pursuit of additional BrahMos missiles marks a significant step in its efforts to strengthen its coastal defenses and assert its sovereignty in the South China Sea. While this acquisition enhances its deterrent capabilities, it also highlights the strategic complexities and challenges the nation faces amid escalating tensions with China. The evolving defense relationship with India and the strategic calculations involving the US underscore the broader geopolitical dynamics at play in the Indo-Pacific region. As the Philippines navigates these turbulent waters, the effectiveness of its defense strategies will be closely watched by regional and global powers alike.