In the East China Sea, a Shaanxi Y-9 reconnaissance plane (運-9運輸機) from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) intruded into Japanese airspace east of the Danjo Islands for the first time. The incursion prompted swift reactions from both Taiwan and Japan, with their respective Ministries of Foreign Affairs condemning the act, characterizing it as a violation of sovereignty and a threat to regional stability.
This latest act of aggression from Beijing reflects a broader strategy of “gray zone” tactics, non-violent but coercive measures designed to assert territorial claims and change the security status quo in East Asia. These tactics have been an essential part of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) military and geopolitical playbook in its efforts to gain control over Taiwan and project power across the Indo-Pacific.
The Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs was quick to condemn the PLA’s incursion, describing it as an “unacceptable violation” of Japan’s sovereignty, while reaffirming Taiwan’s commitment to regional stability. Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed similar outrage, summoning the Chinese ambassador and issuing a formal protest. Both countries emphasized that Beijing’s actions represent a dangerous escalation that destabilizes an already delicate security situation in the East China Sea and the broader region.
Tokyo’s defense officials noted that this was the first known instance of a Chinese military aircraft entering Japan’s airspace near the Danjo Islands, a strategically significant area. Historically, the islands have been a contentious location, with both Japan and China increasing their military presence in the surrounding waters.
The incursion by the Shaanxi Y-9 reconnaissance aircraft is seen as a deliberate provocation, intended to test Japan’s response and to challenge the established norms of international airspace sovereignty. Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs echoed similar sentiments, calling Beijing’s actions a violation of the rules-based international order and a destabilizing move aimed at altering the balance of power in the region.
Beijing’s Gray Zone Tactics: Coercion Without Conflict
Beijing’s reliance on gray zone tactics has become an essential component of its strategy for asserting control over Taiwan and intimidating neighboring states. These tactics encompass a range of activities, including military pressure, economic coercion, cyberattacks, and diplomatic isolation. Unlike overt military aggression, gray zone actions are deliberately ambiguous, designed to keep conflicts below the threshold of open warfare while steadily advancing China’s strategic objectives.
Gray zone tactics are not new. Since 2016, during Xi Jinping’s first term, the PRC has increasingly used these methods to coerce Taiwan and its neighbors into submission. The framework of these tactics is often summarized by the acronym “MIDFIELD,” which stands for Military, Informational, Diplomatic, Financial, Intelligence, Economic, Law, and Development strategies. This comprehensive approach allows China to apply pressure across multiple domains simultaneously, making it difficult for targeted countries to respond effectively.
The August 26 airspace violation is a prime example of how gray zone tactics work. While no direct military confrontation occurred, the incident sends a clear signal to Japan and the international community that Beijing is willing to push boundaries and challenge sovereignty to assert its claims in the East China Sea.
The recent incursion by the PLA aircraft is part of a broader pattern of aggressive military behavior by the PRC, particularly against Taiwan. Since September 2020, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) has systematically tracked and publicized the PRC’s incursions into its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). These incursions have become a daily occurrence, with Chinese military aircraft routinely crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait.
In 2022 alone, the MND recorded 1,737 PLA aircraft intrusions into Taiwan’s ADIZ. The trend has only escalated in 2024, with 586 incursions recorded in August alone. These acts of military aggression are part of Beijing’s broader strategy to normalize its presence in contested airspace and waters, eroding the status quo and challenging the sovereignty of its neighbors.
The peak of these incursions occurred on September 18, 2023, when 103 PLA aircraft entered Taiwan’s ADIZ in a single day. This unprecedented show of force underscored the PRC’s willingness to use its military as a tool of intimidation and coercion.
The situation has become so severe that Taiwanese officials have expressed concerns about the risk of accidental military conflict. A recent example occurred on June 25, 2024, when Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration expelled four Chinese coast guard vessels that had intruded into Taiwanese waters near the Quemoy Islands.
Maritime Collisions and Regional Tensions: A Growing Risk of Conflict
The increased frequency of PLA incursions and maritime confrontations has raised concerns about the potential for accidents or miscalculations leading to open conflict. One such incident occurred on June 17, 2024, when a collision between a Chinese vessel and a Philippine coast guard ship nearly triggered a response under the United States–Philippines Security Treaty.
The August 31, 2024, maritime confrontation between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the South China Sea further highlighted the risks of Beijing’s aggressive tactics. These incidents serve as a stark reminder of how quickly gray zone provocations can escalate into dangerous confrontations with far-reaching consequences.
Experts like Jude Blanchette from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) have warned that continued provocations by the PRC could lead to accidental casualties, which in turn could spark a broader conflict involving regional powers like the United States and Japan.
Beijing’s gray zone tactics extend beyond military and maritime provocations. In the information domain, China has been waging a persistent cyber warfare campaign against Taiwan, targeting its critical infrastructure, government networks, and public opinion.
According to Taiwan’s Minister of Defense, Wellington Koo Li-hsiung, Taiwan faces over 5 million cyberattacks daily, with most of these attacks originating from state-sponsored actors in China. These attacks have become particularly aggressive during Taiwan’s election seasons, with groups like the Fuzhou-based RedJuliett exploiting vulnerabilities in Taiwanese sectors ranging from higher education to diplomacy.
Cyberattacks are often coupled with disinformation campaigns aimed at influencing Taiwanese public opinion. Beijing routinely uses social media platforms like LINE, TikTok, and Facebook to spread pro-unification narratives, often employing sophisticated AI-generated content like DeepFakes to manipulate public perception.
Beijing has a long history of interfering in Taiwanese elections to prevent pro-independence parties like the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) from gaining power. This interference has taken many forms, from direct cyberattacks on political parties to disinformation campaigns designed to sway public opinion in favor of candidates aligned with Beijing’s interests.
Using celebrities and influencers, as well as popular online platforms, China seeks to undermine Taiwan’s democratic institutions and shift public support toward candidates favorable to unification. These efforts have intensified ahead of Taiwan’s 2024 elections, with Beijing aiming to weaken support for the DPP and other pro-independence factions.
US-China Relations and Strategic Ambiguity
The PRC’s aggressive actions in the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait are not occurring in isolation. They are part of a broader strategy to challenge the US-led international order in the Indo-Pacific. The cross-strait issue has been a cornerstone of US-China relations since 1979, with Washington adhering to a policy of “strategic ambiguity” to deter both Taiwan from declaring independence and China from launching a military invasion.
However, the PRC’s recent gray zone tactics have tested the limits of this approach. As the frequency and intensity of Chinese provocations increase, there are growing calls for a reassessment of US policy toward Taiwan. Some experts argue that the United States should adopt a more explicit stance in support of Taiwan’s defense to deter further aggression from Beijing.
Given the growing threat posed by Beijing’s gray zone tactics, there is a growing consensus that collective action is needed to deter further aggression. Multilateral frameworks like AUKUS (Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) offer a model for strengthening deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.
For Taiwan, enhancing its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities is critical to maintaining credible deterrence against PLA incursions. Leveraging advanced technologies, such as Virginia-class submarines and quantum computing, from like-minded allies can help Taiwan bolster its defense and signal its resolve to resist coercion.
The August 26, 2024, incursion by the PLA’s Shaanxi Y-9 reconnaissance plane into Japanese airspace is yet another example of Beijing’s increasingly aggressive gray zone tactics. These actions pose a direct threat to regional peace and stability, particularly in the context of Taiwan’s ongoing struggle for autonomy.
As Beijing continues to escalate its military, informational, and diplomatic coercion, the international community must work together to counter these tactics. Multilateral cooperation, robust deterrence strategies, and a commitment to upholding the rules-based order are essential to preventing further destabilization and ensuring a peaceful resolution to the cross-strait issue.
