A prolonged period of political uncertainty continues to grip South Korea as the fate of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol hangs in the balance. The botched attempt to arrest him has not only emboldened his supporters but also rekindled support for his embattled People Power Party (PPP), signaling a potential conservative resurgence in the country.
Yoon has been suspended from his duties following the brief imposition of martial law on December 3, a move that triggered widespread outcry and led to his impeachment. Currently under investigation for possible insurrection, Yoon has remained secluded in his hilltop residence in Seoul, fortified by a dedicated team of personal security guards.
A recent National Barometer Survey revealed deep divisions among the South Korean public regarding Yoon’s situation. The survey, released on January 9, showed that 59% of respondents support his arrest, while 37% believe that such a move would be excessive. The arrest attempt last week, which unfolded in a highly publicized six-hour standoff, ended without success, intensifying the polarized views.
The Constitutional Court is presently deliberating over the impeachment, with many citizens anxiously awaiting its decision. The court’s ruling will determine whether Yoon is permanently removed from office, a verdict that could significantly impact the nation’s political landscape.
The failed arrest attempt appears to have galvanized Yoon’s supporters, who see it as a politically motivated move against their leader. Despite the severe winter weather, dozens of Yoon loyalists gathered near his residence on Thursday morning, a testament to their unwavering support.
Political analysts suggest that the arrest drama has rejuvenated the conservative base. Mason Richey, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, remarked, “The attempt to arrest Yoon has reinvigorated conservatives.” He noted that this revival is partly fueled by Yoon’s core supporters who justify his martial law declaration with unverified claims of election fraud, as well as conservatives uneasy about the potential presidency of Lee Jae-myung, leader of the liberal Democratic Party.
The weeks following Yoon’s impeachment have witnessed a notable recovery in the PPP’s support. According to a Realmeter poll released on Monday, the party’s approval rating climbed to 34.4%, marking a steady increase over three consecutive weeks. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party’s rating stood higher at 45.2%, reflecting its strong parliamentary majority and central role in Yoon’s impeachment.
South Korea’s political divide is profound, with a 2022 Pew Research survey highlighting that nine out of ten adults perceive strong conflicts between supporters of different political factions. This polarization is mirrored in the fluctuating support for Yoon and his party.
As legal proceedings continue, Yoon’s legal team has remained resolute, challenging the authority of anti-corruption officers to investigate him for insurrection. Despite a court-issued arrest warrant, his lawyers argue the investigation lacks legitimacy. However, they have assured the public that they will respect the Constitutional Court’s ruling on Yoon’s political future.
“President Yoon is steadfast,” said Seok Dong-hyeon, Yoon’s confidant and lawyer. Addressing supporters, Seok emphasized Yoon’s commitment to avoiding public suffering while denouncing what he views as illegal investigations. “Thank you, young people, for coming out to join here to save our country,” he declared.
The arrest attempts and impeachment have drawn parallels to other global political events. Supporters of Yoon have taken inspiration from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who similarly faced legal challenges and made unsubstantiated claims of election fraud. Echoing Trump’s “Stop the Steal” campaign, Yoon’s backers have adopted similar rhetoric, questioning the integrity of South Korea’s electoral processes.
Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, anticipates that further attempts to arrest Yoon will only “galvanize” his support and that of the PPP. The conservative base, wary of repeating past electoral defeats such as the one following former President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment in 2017, appears determined to rally and resist.
With the Constitutional Court’s decision pending and potential new arrest attempts looming, South Korea stands at a crossroads. The country’s political future could hinge on the outcome of these proceedings, and the stakes are high for both Yoon’s supporters and his detractors.
Professor Lee Jun-han of Incheon National University points out that the conservative electorate is driven by memories of their past setbacks and the desire to avoid another political collapse. “Conservatives remember the total destruction after Park Geun-hye’s impeachment,” he said, suggesting that this historical context is crucial in understanding the current conservative rallying behind Yoon and the PPP.
As the nation watches and waits, the political drama surrounding Yoon Suk Yeol underscores the deep divisions within South Korean society. The coming weeks will be critical in shaping the country’s political trajectory, as citizens and politicians alike brace for the next chapter in this unfolding saga.
