Less than a month into his presidency, Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto has catapulted himself onto the international stage, making waves during his inaugural foreign tour. From high-profile visits to China and the United States to participating in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Peru, Mr. Prabowo has raised Indonesia’s global profile. Yet, his early moves have also sparked controversy, underscoring the challenges of navigating the complex world of international diplomacy.
President Prabowo’s overseas engagements reflect a hands-on approach to foreign policy, a departure from his predecessor Joko Widodo’s reliance on his experienced foreign minister. Since his inauguration on October 20, Prabowo has visited key global players, starting with China and then the United States, and is set to continue his tour at the G20 Summit in Brazil.
These visits have stirred pride among Indonesians, showcasing the country’s growing relevance on the world stage as the world’s third-largest democracy and Southeast Asia’s largest economy. His meetings with world leaders such as Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden highlight Indonesia’s strategic importance in global geopolitics. However, Prabowo’s assertive style has also revealed vulnerabilities in his administration’s diplomatic preparedness.
Prabowo’s decision to make China his first official visit as president was consistent with his foreign policy priorities. During his stay from November 8 to 10, he met with top Chinese leaders, resulting in agreements worth $10 billion. These deals covered sectors ranging from new energy to biotechnology and included support for Prabowo’s domestic initiatives like free school meals for children and food sovereignty programs.
However, it was the maritime agreement and accompanying joint statement with China that became the centerpiece of scrutiny. A controversial clause noted that both nations had reached “an important common understanding on joint development in areas of overlapping claims.” This phrase raised eyebrows, as Indonesia has long maintained that it is a non-claimant state in the South China Sea and has no overlapping claims with China.
The Indonesian foreign ministry quickly issued clarifications, reiterating that the country’s position on its sovereign rights remained unchanged. “Indonesia reiterates its position that those [Chinese] claims have no international legal basis,” the ministry stated, emphasizing that the partnership would not impact sovereignty over the North Natuna Sea.
Experts like Dr. Shafiah Muhibat of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) have questioned how such language ended up in the joint statement. Whether it was an oversight or a lack of foresight by officials, the incident underscores the need for meticulous preparation in diplomatic negotiations.
“It shouldn’t have been there in the first place,” Dr. Shafiah said, warning that the inclusion of the phrase could complicate Indonesia’s stance in future South China Sea disputes.
Prabowo’s visit to the United States marked another significant milestone. Meeting with high-ranking officials, including President Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and CIA Director William J. Burns, he emphasized the importance of Indonesia-U.S. ties. The two nations issued a joint statement commemorating 75 years of diplomatic relations, highlighting cooperation on food security, renewable energy, and adherence to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
The contrast between the joint statements issued with China and the U.S. was stark. While the U.S. statement explicitly endorsed UNCLOS, the Chinese statement omitted such language, reflecting differing interpretations of maritime rules.
“The wording in the U.S. joint statement is 180 degrees different from the one with China,” noted Dr. Shafiah, highlighting the challenges of maintaining consistency in diplomacy with rival global powers.
Prabowo’s interactions with U.S. leaders also drew public attention, particularly his phone call with President-elect Donald Trump. In a widely circulated video, Prabowo praised Trump and expressed a willingness to meet him personally. While some Indonesians lauded Prabowo’s initiative, others criticized the move as overly deferential.
Prabowo’s assertive personal diplomacy has drawn mixed reactions from analysts, with some praising his efforts to elevate Indonesia’s global standing and others urging caution. Associate Professor Dinna Prapto Raharja of Synergy Policies observed that Prabowo’s approach risks sidelining Indonesia’s seasoned diplomatic corps.
“Mr. Prabowo seems to be a one-man show when it comes to foreign politics,” she said. While his enthusiasm is commendable, Dinna emphasized the importance of leveraging the expertise of Indonesia’s foreign ministry, especially in sensitive negotiations.
Criticism has also been directed at Prabowo’s choice of foreign minister, Sugiono, a former military official with limited diplomatic experience. Analysts argue that effective diplomacy requires tapping into the institutional knowledge of career diplomats who are well-versed in international norms and negotiations.
“In diplomacy, certain terms need to be avoided, and negotiations can take years. It is not child’s play,” said Dinna, stressing the need for a collaborative approach.
Prabowo’s early diplomatic forays reflect both ambition and the pitfalls of inexperience. His engagements have placed Indonesia at the heart of global discussions, yet the controversies arising from the China visit underscore the importance of clear and consistent messaging in international affairs.
The agreements signed with both China and the U.S. have the potential to yield significant benefits for Indonesia, but their implementation remains uncertain. Analysts are keenly watching whether these deals will materialize as envisioned or undergo further revisions.
As Indonesia navigates its relationships with global powers, it faces the challenge of balancing its economic ambitions with its strategic priorities. The South China Sea remains a flashpoint, and Indonesia’s ability to assert its sovereignty while fostering constructive partnerships will be a litmus test for Prabowo’s presidency.
With the APEC Summit and G20 meetings providing further opportunities for engagement, Prabowo must build on his early momentum by strengthening the institutional foundations of his foreign policy. Drawing on the expertise of his diplomatic corps and fostering greater inter-ministerial collaboration will be crucial in ensuring that Indonesia’s interests are effectively safeguarded on the global stage.
