The Indonesian presidential election took place on 14 February 2024, with Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s defence minister and former army general, winning a landslide victory. Indikator Politik predicted that Prabowo had won 58% of the votes, surpassing the 50% threshold required to win the election in one round.
The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) will remain the largest party in the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR) with 16.7% of the vote, 2.6 points below its 2019 share.
The Golkar Party, Suharto’s former political vehicle, will be the second largest party with 14.8% of the vote, while Prabowo’s party Gerindra will be the third largest with 13.7% of the vote.
Eight out of nine DPR-represented parties are expected to win representation in the new parliament, with the United Development Party losing its seats due to failing to pass the 4% threshold. None of the nine non-DPR parties, including the Indonesian Solidarity Party, are predicted to pass the parliamentary threshold.
Indonesian President Prabowo and his running mate, Gibran, have been predicted to win the presidential race. Indikator Politik’s final election survey revealed Prabowo leading the race at 51.8 percent, followed by Anies at 24.1% and Ganjar at 19.6%. The Indonesian Survey Institute’s poll revealed that 51.9% of respondents planned to support Prabowo.
Anies and Ganjar criticized Prabowo for human rights violations and anti-Suharto activist kidnappings during election campaign, but he overcame accusations with Jokowi’s endorsement.
Nearly 80 percent of Indonesians are either very satisfied or satisfied with Jokowi’s performance. Jokowi’s endorsement of Prabowo and the appointment of his son Gibran as Prabowo’s running mate are considered the leading factors that swung most voters to Prabowo’s side.
Many observers believe that Indonesian democracy is deteriorating due to perceived interference from the outgoing administration and new legislation restricting civil rights and freedom of expression for ordinary Indonesians.
Indonesian voters, according to a recent Indikator survey, believe the country’s democracy is in good or very good condition, with 71% of respondents believing so. Prabowo’s election as Indonesia’s next president is a testament to Jokowi’s popularity among ordinary Indonesians, who focused on economic and infrastructure development for a decade.
The election of Prabowo is expected to determine whether Jokowi’s actions will secure his political and economic legacy or if they will weaken the foundations of the world’s third largest democracy.
