The recent Queensland election has once again highlighted the unique political landscape of the Sunshine State, revealing deep divisions between urban and regional voters. While David Crisafulli’s Liberal National Party (LNP) secured a majority and brought an end to nearly a decade of Labor governance, the election’s results underscore a lasting tension. Crisafulli’s decisive victory in Queensland’s regional seats contrasted sharply with his lukewarm reception in urban areas, particularly Brisbane.
In two seats — Mackay and Mansfield — lies the tale of Queensland’s split political identity and the evolving challenges for both the new LNP government and the Labor opposition.
Mackay, a city built on working-class labor and deep ties to the mining sector, has historically been a Labor stronghold even through periods of significant state-level losses. In the 2012 “Newman landslide,” Labor held on here as it faced statewide losses to the LNP led by Campbell Newman. In contrast, Brisbane’s Mansfield, located in the city’s southern suburbs, presents an entirely different story. Mansfield backed the LNP during the Newman era, a time when Queensland saw the largest political majority erased in a single election cycle. This dynamic swing of Mansfield and the resilience of Mackay show how Queensland politics can often be described as a pendulum swinging between urban progressivism and regional conservatism.
This time around, Crisafulli managed to clinch Mackay, indicating a significant realignment of Labor’s traditional working-class base. Yet, in Mansfield, the LNP fell short, losing out to a renewed Labor campaign and showcasing the divide between Brisbane’s increasingly progressive tilt and the conservative regional sentiments gaining momentum.
For Crisafulli and his team, navigating Queensland’s political duality is critical to maintaining their slim majority. His coalition managed to gather strong support across central and northern Queensland, beginning with Townsville and stretching southward through the Sunshine Coast. However, the “blue wave” nearly stalled at Brisbane’s borders. Though the LNP holds power in the Brisbane City Council, it struggles to gain traction in state elections where voters are wary of conservative social policies.
The statewide split mirrors a trend seen in parts of the United States and other nations, where metropolitan regions tend toward progressive politics while rural areas lean conservative. In Brisbane, issues like affordable housing, climate policy, and social progressivism resonate strongly, which led to a hard cap on Crisafulli’s support. Labor leveraged these concerns, offering Brisbane residents a stark alternative through progressive policies such as 50-cent public transport fares and a pronounced focus on reproductive rights, which garnered significant support in the city.
The Queensland Labor Party’s approach in this election was a marked departure from previous years. In addition to traditional labor policies, Labor integrated populist left-leaning issues that resonated particularly well in urban areas, such as free school lunches, mining taxes, and social policies centered on reproductive rights. These policies energized Brisbane’s progressive voter base and allowed Labor to stave off LNP encroachment in the metropolitan area, particularly in inner-city seats where the Greens have held sway in past elections.
Despite Labor’s success in Brisbane, the party faces a tough question about its future path: should it double down on urban progressivism or pivot back toward its working-class roots in regional Queensland? Cities like Townsville, Rockhampton, and Mackay — which were once solidly Labor — now lean conservative. Notably, Gladstone, a key seat with deep union ties, experienced a swing of 15% away from Labor, highlighting the tenuous relationship between traditional Labor values and the state’s growing regional conservatism.
The Greens suffered one of their most challenging elections in Queensland. With the possible loss of both their state seats, the party’s role as a progressive force in Queensland politics faces considerable uncertainty. Commentators have suggested that the Greens’ struggles stem, in part, from national issues seeping into the state’s political psyche. High-profile national debates on housing, foreign policy issues like Palestine, and other confrontational stances — hallmarks of federal Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather’s approach — may have alienated some traditionally moderate Greens voters in Queensland.
In particular, Maiwar’s Michael Berkman, a widely respected figure and former environmental lawyer, found himself unexpectedly vulnerable. Maiwar, a constituency spanning Toowong and Indooroopilly, has long been a seat of small-L liberalism with strong environmental leanings. Berkman’s wavering support can be seen as an indicator of the challenges facing the Greens as they attempt to retain both a left-leaning and moderate voter base.
In other suburban areas — Cooper, McConnel, and South Brisbane — the Greens also saw declines, but these losses had less to do with a collapse in Greens support and more with Labor’s strength. In many of these areas, Labor and Greens candidates engaged in “progressive vs. progressive” contests, leaving the LNP in a distant third position.
The rivalry between the Labor Party and the Greens in Queensland reflects a deeper philosophical divide within Australia’s progressive movement. While the Greens champion an uncompromising vision on climate policy and social issues, Labor’s pragmatic approach appears to resonate with urban voters who prioritize policy gains over ideological purity. This divergence became especially pronounced in the Brisbane electorate, where Labor’s transport and social policies swayed many former Greens supporters. The left-leaning policies of the Labor party in this election cycle — from public transit affordability to school meals — borrowed heavily from the Greens’ platform, aligning with progressive demands and cutting into the Green voter base.
The Labor-Greens rivalry highlights the challenges of a divided left, where voters who seek progressive change are often forced to choose between idealism and incrementalism. As the Greens struggle to maintain a foothold in the Queensland parliament, their future may depend on how well Labor navigates its position on the left.
Crisafulli’s success in regional Queensland came with a mandate for conservative policies, but governing in a way that holds Brisbane’s interest will require a careful balancing act. Many Brisbane voters who would otherwise back the LNP at the state level remain hesitant, wary of the party’s stance on social issues, from reproductive rights to LGBTQ+ rights. The LNP’s promises to cancel Queensland’s treaty process with First Nations people, alongside intermittent discussions of nuclear energy, may appeal to some voters in the regions but are unlikely to resonate in Brisbane.
Crisafulli will have to ensure that his party doesn’t veer too far into cultural conservatism. The LNP’s challenge will be to deliver on its commitments without alienating Brisbane voters who prize moderation and social inclusivity. Crisafulli’s approach in the coming years — whether he chooses to push a culture-war agenda or instead focuses on a moderate policy platform — will be crucial in shaping his party’s fortunes.
Queensland’s election underscores a growing national trend of polarized voting patterns between metropolitan and regional constituencies. Similar to trends in the United States and Europe, where urban centers lean progressive while rural and suburban areas favor conservatism, Australia is witnessing a shift in its political landscape. This divide will likely influence strategies at the federal level as political parties seek to craft policies that appeal to both urban progressives and rural conservatives.
For Labor, the results in Queensland offer a roadmap for federal elections, where balancing the needs of urban progressive voters with regional concerns becomes increasingly essential. The federal Greens, too, may need to reassess their strategies in Queensland, where their traditional urban base faces pressure from Labor’s progressive platform.
In Queensland, both the LNP and Labor must navigate a deeply divided state as they vie for influence in both Brisbane and the regions. For Crisafulli and the LNP, the challenge is clear: they must moderate their platform to prevent alienating urban voters, while still appealing to the regional bases that powered their victory. For Labor, regaining ground in places like Mackay and Rockhampton without losing their grip on Brisbane is no easy task.
This Queensland election has reshaped the state’s political map and set a precedent for future campaigns. Mackay and Mansfield may be two constituencies, but they represent the twin pillars of Queensland’s polarized electorate. For Crisafulli’s LNP and the Labor opposition, winning in both regions will be essential to maintaining control in Queensland’s fractured political landscape. The real challenge for both parties will be to find common ground that bridges this divide — or to continue managing a state that may remain politically cleaved for years to come.
