Russia remains hopeful that the halted contract to supply Su-35 fighter jets to Indonesia will eventually move forward, according to Sergey Tolchenov, the Russian Ambassador to Indonesia. Despite the agreement being on hold, Moscow believes that it is only a matter of time before Jakarta proceeds with the deal.
In a recent interview with Russia’s state news agency TASS, Ambassador Tolchenov stated, “The contract has not been canceled or terminated, only frozen. We expect that sooner or later it will be executed. When or how that happens is a decision for the Indonesian government to make.” He added that Indonesia has not completely dismissed the possibility of acquiring Russian aerospace technology, hinting that there is still interest in Moscow’s defense equipment.
The ambassador also noted that there has been no official explanation from Indonesia for the suspension of the $1.14 billion contract, which includes 11 Su-35 “Flanker-E” jets, but indicated that the decision was likely influenced by a combination of factors. “There are complicated considerations involved,” Tolchenov remarked, without elaborating on the specific dynamics.
The Su-35 deal has had a turbulent history. Originally signed in early 2018, the agreement to purchase 11 of the advanced multirole fighter jets from Russia was seen as a significant boost for Indonesia’s military capabilities. The Su-35s, with their superior maneuverability and powerful avionics systems, were intended to bolster the Indonesian Air Force’s fleet and maintain the country’s air superiority in the region.
However, in March 2020, reports surfaced that Indonesia had decided to put the procurement on hold, citing financial constraints exacerbated by the global COVID-19 pandemic. Jakarta was among many nations grappling with the economic fallout from the pandemic, which forced the Indonesian government to redirect spending to healthcare and social support programs.
Yet, beyond economic factors, there were other geopolitical issues at play. International speculation pointed to pressure from the United States as a key reason for Indonesia’s hesitation. The U.S., through its Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), has threatened to impose sanctions on countries purchasing military equipment from Russia. Indonesia, aware of the potential repercussions, likely decided to pause the Su-35 deal to avoid souring relations with Washington.
CAATSA has become a significant tool of U.S. foreign policy, aiming to deter countries from buying military hardware from U.S. adversaries, particularly Russia. The law mandates sanctions on nations that engage in “significant transactions” with Russian defense or intelligence sectors. This provision has created a complex dynamic for Indonesia, which, despite a history of purchasing Russian defense equipment, has grown closer to Western powers in recent years.
In the case of Indonesia, the purchase of the Su-35 fighter jets would almost certainly qualify as a “significant transaction” under CAATSA, putting Jakarta at risk of punitive actions from Washington. Indonesia’s broader strategic interests, including its military cooperation with the U.S. and efforts to avoid being drawn into great power conflicts, have likely contributed to the decision to place the Su-35 contract on hold.
However, Indonesia’s defense acquisition policy has long aimed to diversify its sources of military hardware, balancing relationships between Western and non-Western powers. In the past, Indonesia has procured Russian-made fighters, such as the Su-27 and Su-30, as well as defense equipment from the U.S. and European nations. Navigating this balance has become increasingly challenging, given the growing rivalry between the U.S. and Russia, as well as the intensifying Indo-Pacific competition involving China.
Following the freezing of the Su-35 deal, Indonesia began exploring other options to modernize its air force. In 2022, Jakarta signed a major contract with France’s Dassault Aviation to acquire 42 Rafale fighter jets, signaling a pivot towards European defense manufacturers. The Rafale deal is estimated to cost approximately RM32 billion, significantly higher than the Su-35 contract. The advanced French aircraft offer Indonesia enhanced capabilities, including long-range missions, advanced radar systems, and superior weapon integration.
In parallel, Indonesia has also entered negotiations with the United States to acquire a fleet of F-15EX fighter jets, further indicating a shift towards Western-made equipment. The F-15EX, which represents the latest version of the iconic F-15 series, is designed to carry a larger weapons payload, making it suitable for various combat scenarios.
Both the Rafale and F-15EX deals highlight Indonesia’s efforts to enhance its military capabilities while maintaining strong diplomatic ties with key global players. This diversification strategy is not new to Indonesia, as the country has a long-standing policy of not relying on a single supplier for its defense needs. However, it reflects Jakarta’s broader ambition to avoid aligning too closely with any one power, especially amidst growing tensions between the U.S. and its rivals.
Despite these developments, Russia remains optimistic that the Su-35 deal will eventually come to fruition. Ambassador Tolchenov emphasized that Russia understands the difficult position Indonesia is in and remains patient. In May 2023, Indonesia’s ambassador to Russia, Jose Tavares, confirmed that the Su-35 contract was still valid, even though it had not moved forward.
Tavares explained that the delay was largely due to the potential “discomforts” associated with the transaction, likely referring to the threats of sanctions from the U.S. and the broader geopolitical complications. “We are waiting for the right moment to proceed,” he said, hinting that Indonesia is carefully weighing the risks and rewards of executing the deal.
While the Su-35 deal is frozen, it remains clear that Indonesia has not ruled out the possibility of proceeding with the purchase when the circumstances are more favorable. Both the Indonesian and Russian governments have kept communication channels open, and there have been no indications that the contract has been officially canceled.
Indonesia’s defense procurement decisions cannot be viewed in isolation from the broader security landscape of Southeast Asia. As one of the largest nations in the region, Indonesia plays a critical role in ensuring the stability of the Indo-Pacific, a region increasingly defined by great power competition. The growing assertiveness of China in the South China Sea, coupled with U.S. efforts to strengthen its alliances in the region, has placed countries like Indonesia in a difficult position.
By acquiring advanced fighter jets such as the Su-35, Rafale, and potentially the F-15EX, Indonesia is signaling its intent to maintain a strong and capable military. This is particularly important as Jakarta seeks to assert its sovereignty and protect its maritime interests in contested waters. At the same time, Indonesia must carefully manage its relationships with both Western powers and its traditional defense partners like Russia.
