After enduring more than two years of war in Ukraine and a global sanctions regime, Russia, once considered one of the world’s most powerful nations, has experienced a marked decline in its international standing. According to the latest version of the ‘Asia Power Index,’ published by the Australia-based Lowy Institute, Russia has dropped to sixth place. This fall marks a significant shift in the Indo-Pacific power dynamics, as Russia’s global influence continues to wane amid its ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
The report, released in September 2024, ranks the relative power of 27 nations and territories in the Indo-Pacific by comparing their strengths across 131 indicators spanning eight thematic categories. These include military capability, economic relationships, resilience, and cultural influence. Russia’s overall score in the index dropped by 0.4 points, reaching a total of 31 out of 100, signaling a steady erosion of the nation’s influence in the region.
Decline of Russian Influence
The Asia Power Index, which assesses countries’ power based on their ability to shape events and influence outcomes within the Indo-Pacific region, highlights Russia as one of only three countries to register a decline in 2024. Despite mobilizing its war economy to support its military campaign in Ukraine, Russia’s scores declined across five major metrics: cultural influence, economic aptitude, resilience, economic linkages, and defense networks.
Russia’s downward trajectory is not new. The nation had already slipped four places in the 2023 edition of the Asia Power Index. With its position declining even further in 2024, Russia’s former stature as a global superpower is increasingly under threat. The report suggests that Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine, coupled with the diversion of resources, has caused its relevance in Asia to diminish, making room for other emerging powers like Australia, Japan, and India to strengthen their positions.
Australia Surpasses Russia
One of the most striking developments in the 2024 Index is Australia’s ascent to the fifth position, displacing Russia. Australia’s rise, however, is not a result of its own major advances but more a reflection of Russia’s continued decline since 2018. The report notes that Australia has seen only a modest increase in its overall score, but its more proactive military and diplomatic engagement in the Indo-Pacific has allowed it to outperform a struggling Russia.
The shift in the rankings is emblematic of Russia’s challenges in maintaining its global influence. Long regarded as a military superpower with significant geopolitical sway, Russia’s gradual slide in the Asia Power Index may signal deeper vulnerabilities, particularly in the context of the Indo-Pacific—a region of growing strategic importance. Analysts suggest that Russia’s absence from the top five signals that it is being increasingly marginalized on the global stage, particularly as its ties with Asian nations weaken.
US, China, India, and Japan: The Leading Powers
While Russia’s influence has waned, other nations have solidified their positions at the top of the Asia Power Index. The United States continues to lead as the most powerful nation in the Indo-Pacific, followed closely by China. The index indicates that while China’s strength is neither growing nor shrinking, it remains stable, albeit at a plateau beneath the level of the US. Despite this plateau, China’s influence still towers over that of its closest Asian rivals.
India, on the other hand, has emerged as Asia’s third most powerful nation, surpassing Japan. India’s overall score saw an impressive increase of 2.8 points, reflecting the country’s growing economic and military clout. According to the report, India’s rise is significant, although its influence has yet to match the full potential of its vast resources. The country’s progress in both regional and global diplomacy, along with its expanding defense and economic capabilities, are seen as key drivers of its ascendance.
Japan, while gaining 1.6 points overall, has faced economic challenges. Its technological edge has eroded in the face of competition from other advanced manufacturing hubs such as South Korea, China, and Taiwan. Nonetheless, Japan remains a key player in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in terms of defense capabilities and international alliances.
Russia’s Waning Economic and Military Strength
The report emphasizes that Russia’s economic influence in the Indo-Pacific has been particularly hard hit. The war in Ukraine, combined with the sanctions imposed by Western nations, has severely affected Russia’s economic relationships and defense networks. The sanctions have crippled key sectors of Russia’s economy, including its defense industry, which has seen a sharp decline in arms exports. A recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) indicated that Russian arms exports fell by 53% between 2014-2018 and 2019-2023. The number of countries purchasing Russian military equipment dropped from 31 in 2019 to just 12 in 2023.
Russia’s military setbacks in Ukraine have further eroded its global standing. Despite early expectations of a swift victory, Russian forces have faced significant losses, both in terms of personnel and equipment. The Ukrainian military, bolstered by Western support, has managed to capture or destroy substantial amounts of Russian hardware. In response, Russia has increasingly relied on support from countries like Iran and North Korea, sourcing drones and, according to Western allegations, ballistic missiles from these nations.
The war has drained Russia’s military capabilities, forcing the country to divert resources away from other areas of influence, particularly in Asia. The Asia Power Index report underscores this, stating that Russia’s negative power gap score, which has worsened over the past year, indicates that the nation wields less influence in the region than its resources would suggest. Russia’s peripheral location in Asia, coupled with the diversion of its focus to the West, has further constrained its ability to assert power in the Indo-Pacific.
Resilience Amid Decline
Despite its challenges, Russia has managed to maintain some degree of resilience. The report notes that Russia ranks third in terms of resilience, reflecting the country’s relative resource security and its well-established nuclear deterrence capability. This underscores Russia’s ability to weather crises, despite significant pressures from sanctions and international isolation.
Russia’s leadership, under President Vladimir Putin, remains defiant in the face of adversity. Putin’s government has prioritized maintaining military spending even as the economy contracts. According to draft budget proposals reviewed by Bloomberg, Russia plans to increase its defense budget significantly in 2025, with projected spending reaching 13.2 trillion rubles ($142 billion), up from 10.4 trillion rubles ($112 billion) in 2024. This would amount to 6.2% of Russia’s GDP, indicating the government’s determination to sustain its military operations in Ukraine and beyond.
Impact of International Sanctions
Sanctions have played a pivotal role in Russia’s declining influence, particularly in its defense sector. While Russia has been able to bypass some sanctions through third-party transactions, the restrictions have severely constrained its defense production capabilities. This has led to delays in fulfilling existing arms contracts with longstanding clients like Armenia, which has expressed frustration over delayed shipments.
Moreover, the sanctions have weakened Russia’s economic linkages within the Indo-Pacific, diminishing its ability to project soft power in the region. Countries that once relied on Russia for military and economic support have begun to seek alternatives, further isolating Moscow on the global stage.
As the war in Ukraine continues with no clear end in sight, Russia’s global standing remains precarious. The 2024 Asia Power Index paints a picture of a nation grappling with the consequences of war, sanctions, and geopolitical isolation. While Russia remains a formidable power in terms of resilience and military capability, its declining influence in the Indo-Pacific reflects a broader erosion of its global clout.
As emerging powers like India, Japan, and Australia continue to strengthen their positions, Russia risks being increasingly sidelined in the global power structure. The Indo-Pacific, a region of growing strategic importance, is now dominated by the United States and China, with other nations quickly filling the void left by Russia’s retreat.
The question remains: can Russia recover from this downward spiral, or will its ongoing war and international isolation continue to erode its once-formidable power? As 2025 approaches, the world will be watching closely to see how Russia navigates these challenges in an increasingly competitive and multipolar world.
