on October 9, 2024, the Russian Ministry of Defense (RuMoD) released footage showcasing the destruction of a Ukrainian Patriot surface-to-air missile (SAM) battery near Pashena Balka in the Dnepropetrovsk region. The RuMoD claims that an Iskander ballistic missile system was used to obliterate critical components of the Patriot SAM system, including the radar and control stations, along with Ukrainian personnel. This event marks a tactical setback for Ukrainian air defenses and reflects deeper concerns about the balance of power between Ukrainian and Russian forces in the ongoing conflict.
According to the RuMoD, the strike was conducted by a crew operating the Iskander-M ballistic missile system, targeting a Ukrainian Patriot SAM battalion positioned near Pashena Balka. The Russian MoD claims that the strike destroyed key assets of the Ukrainian air defense system, including a multifunctional AN/MPQ-65 radar, an AN/MSQ-104 engagement control station, and at least one launcher of the Patriot system. Another launcher was reportedly damaged in the attack.
The precision strike took place approximately 250 km from potential Iskander-M launch sites within Russian territory. The Iskander-M is a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) capable of striking targets with pinpoint accuracy at ranges of up to 500 km, depending on the variant. It is known for its advanced maneuverability, including evasive maneuvers during the terminal phase of its flight, which makes it exceedingly difficult for air defense systems to intercept.
The footage released by RuMoD appears to have been captured during daylight hours, offering a clear view of the radar systems and missile launchers in Ukrainian positions. However, the footage did not display the full scale of destruction claimed by RuMoD, as some of the damage is attributed to secondary detonations that occurred after the missile’s impact.
The destruction of a high-value asset such as the Patriot SAM system raises questions about the strategic choices being made by Ukrainian forces. With only a limited inventory of Patriot systems, Ukraine appears to be deploying these valuable assets in positions that are within easy reach of Russian missile strikes, such as the Iskander-M. This is particularly concerning given the Patriot system’s role in defending against cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and advanced aerial threats.
Observers suggest that Ukraine’s air defense strategies may be overly focused on quick, visible victories in the media rather than a longer-term strategy aimed at consistently pushing back Russian forces. By placing a Patriot battery in such a vulnerable location, Ukraine appears to have prioritized immediate defensive needs, possibly responding to specific Russian air and missile threats, at the expense of protecting its air defense assets from predictable Russian retaliation.
One aspect of the Russian strategy that has become apparent in this conflict is the use of cruise missiles and other aerial threats to provoke Ukrainian air defenses into action. By doing so, Russian forces can identify the locations of Ukrainian air defense systems through radar emissions or missile launch trajectories. Once these locations are known, they become prime targets for follow-up strikes, such as the one that occurred near Pashena Balka.
Russians, correctly, targeted the AN/MPQ-53/56 Radar along with the AN/MSQ-104 ESC (Engagement Control Station)
This was the correct decision, instead of going for the 2 spread out M901/M903 TELs. Visible launch
In this particular incident, Russian bloggers speculated that the Patriot battery had been deployed to counter Russian UMPK-kitted glide bombs dropped by Su-34 fighter-bombers. These glide bombs pose a significant threat to Ukrainian military installations and troop concentrations, particularly in regions like Dnepropetrovsk and Pavlograd. By tracing the trajectory of Patriot missile launches, Russian forces were able to determine the approximate location of the air defense system and eliminate it with an Iskander-M missile strike.
The Iskander-M ballistic missile, which was used in this attack, has been a critical asset in Russia’s arsenal throughout the conflict. Known for its ability to evade enemy radar and missile defenses, the Iskander-M rises to a high altitude of approximately 100 km during its flight, then engages in complex maneuvers that make it exceedingly difficult for air defense systems to track and engage. In addition to its maneuverability, the Iskander-M is capable of releasing decoys during its descent, further complicating enemy radar systems’ ability to detect and intercept it.
The footage released by the RuMoD shows the shallow launch trajectory of the Patriot missiles, indicating that the Iskander-M was detected but successfully evaded interception through its low-altitude approach and evasive maneuvers. Despite early detection, the Ukrainian air defense system was unable to neutralize the missile before it struck its target.
A key element of this strike that adds another layer of intrigue is the presence of reconnaissance footage captured by what appears to be a low-observable drone, likely the Russian Superkam. The Superkam, a flying wing-shaped reconnaissance drone, is believed to have a range of 200-250 km and is resistant to electronic warfare (EW) interference. The fact that such clear objective control footage was captured suggests that Ukrainian forces were unaware of the drone’s presence, highlighting another vulnerability in their defensive setup.
This footage not only underscores the precision and effectiveness of the Iskander-M but also reveals how Ukrainian air defense systems were caught off-guard by Russian reconnaissance capabilities.
One of the most puzzling aspects of this incident is why Ukraine would position a Patriot battery within easy range of Russian Iskander-M missiles. Given the strategic importance of the Patriot system, it is surprising that more extensive measures were not taken to conceal or protect the battery from Russian strikes. This could be due to several reasons, including the need to counter immediate aerial threats posed by Russian glide bombs in the Zaporizhzhya sector.
Russian forces have recently intensified their use of glide bombs, particularly in the Zaporizhzhya region, where Ukrainian troops have reportedly been caught off-guard by long-range airstrikes. Previously, this region had not been targeted by glide bombs, leading to an assumption that it was beyond the range of Russian Su-34 aircraft. The deployment of the Patriot battery near Pashena Balka may have been a reaction to this changing battlefield dynamic.
The loss of a Patriot battery, given the limited number of such systems in Ukraine’s possession, is a significant blow to the country’s air defense capabilities. With the ongoing Russian offensive and the threat of more advanced missile systems, such as the rumored 1000-km range Iskander variant, Ukraine’s ability to defend against missile strikes is likely to be further weakened.
Russian military observers have noted that production of the Iskander-M missile has ramped up considerably since the conflict began, with new variants potentially offering extended range capabilities. Recent reports suggest that an Iskander-M launched from the Kursk region was able to strike a target in Ukraine’s Zhmerynka district at a range of 750 km, far exceeding the typical operational range of the standard Iskander-M. If a longer-range version of the missile, tentatively called the Iskander-1000, is indeed operational, it could pose an even greater challenge to Ukrainian air defenses in the future.
The destruction of the Patriot battery near Pashena Balka is emblematic of the evolving tactics and technologies being employed by both sides in this conflict. On one hand, Russian forces continue to adapt their strategy, using a combination of missile strikes and reconnaissance drones to suppress Ukrainian air defenses. On the other hand, Ukrainian forces are grappling with the need to protect their limited air defense assets while also countering an array of Russian threats, from cruise missiles to glide bombs.
As the war drags on, the balance of power in the air and missile defense domain may increasingly favor Russia, particularly if it continues to upgrade and deploy systems like the Iskander-M. For Ukraine, the loss of a Patriot battery represents not just a tactical defeat but a strategic challenge that will require a recalibration of its air defense strategy going forward. Without more effective protection and deployment of these systems, Ukraine may find itself increasingly vulnerable to Russian air and missile strikes in critical regions.
