Russia has shown a contradictory stance toward the peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, underscoring its desire to maintain a controlling influence in the volatile Caucasus region. While Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently suggested that Moscow was content with letting Armenia and Azerbaijan work out their own peace deal, actions on the ground suggest otherwise. A deeper look into the situation reveals that Moscow’s hand is not entirely absent, as recent events show that Russia continues to meddle in Armenia’s internal politics, likely to preserve its waning power in the region.
On September 18, Armenian authorities announced they had foiled a Russian-sponsored coup plot, aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government and installing a Kremlin-friendly leadership in Yerevan. This plot highlights how Russia’s influence in Armenia, historically close but increasingly fraught, is being tested amid the shifting geopolitics in the region. With a peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan ongoing but fragile, Russia’s interference adds a layer of complexity that underscores Moscow’s broader strategic interests.
The Alleged Coup Plot
Armenia’s National Security Service (NSS) announced that they had detained three individuals linked to the alleged Russian-sponsored plot, and they were still searching for four additional suspects. According to preliminary reports, the group was recruiting Armenian men to form an armed faction that would act as the core of a coup to unseat Pashinyan, whose recent policies and attempts to pivot away from Russia have sparked discontent in Moscow. Recruits for this plot were reportedly sent to a training camp in Russia, a clear indication of the foreign dimension of the conspiracy.
This coup attempt is significant not just for Armenia’s internal stability but for what it reveals about Russia’s growing desperation to retain influence in its former Soviet sphere of influence. Relations between Armenia and Russia have deteriorated steadily since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, in which Russian peacekeepers were deployed but failed to secure lasting peace. Armenian officials have repeatedly voiced concerns that Moscow has not upheld its security commitments to protect Armenian sovereignty, especially after Azerbaijan’s rapid military advances in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in September 2023.
The NSS’s success in stopping the plot does not only demonstrate the growing competency of Armenia’s intelligence apparatus but also highlights a growing sentiment of unease within Armenian society. As Yerevan looks to diversify its foreign relations, moving closer to the West, Russia seems intent on preventing a complete geopolitical pivot. The foiled coup is but one manifestation of Moscow’s broader strategy to prevent Armenia from slipping out of its orbit.
Nagorno-Karabakh Peace Process
While tensions simmer over Russia’s covert activities, the broader peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains delicately poised. Despite the complex dynamics, Armenia and Azerbaijan have made substantial progress in their negotiations, with Prime Minister Pashinyan recently announcing that the two countries had agreed on 13 of the 16 key points of a draft peace deal. These include several contentious territorial and political issues that have been the root of long-standing enmity between the two nations.
A key sticking point that has emerged in recent negotiations is Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia amend its constitution to formally recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. The region, which has been a focal point of conflict between the two nations for decades, was largely reconquered by Azerbaijan in the autumn of 2023, following a swift military campaign. Armenia, having lost much of its influence over the region, faces immense pressure to make painful concessions to reach a lasting peace. However, the constitutional amendment sought by Baku represents a significant political obstacle for Pashinyan, as it could ignite domestic opposition and fuel further political instability.
Moreover, the Armenian government’s proposal to sign a partial peace agreement, finalizing the points already agreed upon while leaving other contentious issues—such as Nagorno-Karabakh’s final status and territorial disputes—open for future discussion, was swiftly rejected by Azerbaijan. Baku has maintained that any peace agreement must address all issues at once to ensure long-term stability and security in the region.
Zangezur Corridor and Russian Interests
Another major issue complicating the peace talks is the proposed Zangezur corridor, a transit route that would connect mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave, Nakhchivan, by passing through Armenian territory. Azerbaijan has pushed hard for this corridor, seeing it as crucial to its economic and strategic interests. Initially, the Zangezur corridor was one of the main obstacles to peace, as Armenia resisted ceding control over this critical route, fearing it would lose sovereignty over key parts of its territory.
However, a recent development saw Armenia and Azerbaijan agreeing to put discussions on the Zangezur corridor on hold, allowing for progress in other areas of negotiation. This move, however, has not been well received by Russia. Moscow had positioned itself as a potential security guarantor of the Zangezur route, a role that would have allowed it to maintain a strategic foothold in the region. With the corridor now off the table, Russia has lost a key lever of influence over the South Caucasus, heightening its fears of becoming increasingly marginalized.
Russia’s interest in the Zangezur corridor stems from its desire to control the transportation routes that traverse the Caucasus, which are vital for both regional trade and military movement. Were Russia to assume responsibility for the corridor’s security, it would have gained a pivotal role in monitoring and potentially influencing the economic and security policies of both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Furthermore, Moscow could have used its influence over the Zangezur corridor to pressure Yerevan, should Armenia continue its tilt toward the West, including deepening ties with the European Union and the United States.
Russia’s Waning Influence and Armenia’s Western Pivot
Russia’s declining influence in Armenia is perhaps best exemplified by Yerevan’s increasingly public pivot toward the West. This shift began in earnest following Azerbaijan’s military victories in Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia’s perceived failure to adequately support Armenia in the aftermath. Armenian leaders, including Pashinyan, have openly questioned the value of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which failed to provide meaningful assistance during Armenia’s times of need.
As Armenia reassesses its foreign policy priorities, it has sought to diversify its security and economic partnerships, with a clear focus on strengthening relations with Western powers. This shift has been accelerated by the broader geopolitical context, particularly Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, which has drained Moscow’s resources and weakened its international standing. Armenia, recognizing that Russia’s capacity to project power has diminished, is seeking to reduce its dependency on its traditional ally.
This pivot is reflected in Armenia’s increasing engagement with NATO and the European Union. In July 2023, Armenia hosted joint military exercises with NATO, signaling its intent to deepen security cooperation with Western institutions. At the same time, Yerevan has been pursuing closer economic ties with the European Union, particularly through initiatives like the Eastern Partnership, which aims to promote democratic governance and economic development in post-Soviet states.
Russia’s Calculus: Meddling or Marginalization?
Russia’s actions in Armenia—whether through covert coup plots or its dissatisfaction with the Zangezur corridor negotiations—reflect its anxiety over losing influence in a region it has historically considered within its sphere of dominance. Moscow faces a delicate balancing act in the Caucasus. While it may publicly state that it is content to let Armenia and Azerbaijan resolve their issues independently, its covert attempts to undermine Pashinyan’s government suggest that Russia is not ready to cede control so easily.
The broader question for Russia is how it will maintain its influence in the South Caucasus amid the ongoing geopolitical realignment. With its resources tied up in Ukraine, and with Western powers making inroads in the region, Moscow faces the prospect of diminishing relevance. Its historical role as the dominant mediator and power broker in the region is now being challenged, and the Kremlin’s heavy-handed tactics may only serve to alienate Yerevan further.
As Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to negotiate the terms of a potential peace agreement, the specter of Russian interference looms large. The alleged Russian-backed coup plot in Armenia is a stark reminder that Moscow is not ready to relinquish its influence in the region, even as its geopolitical standing weakens. For Armenia, navigating its future will require a careful balancing act—seeking peace with Azerbaijan, while managing the pressures from Russia, and deepening its ties with the West.
The road to a lasting peace in the Caucasus remains fraught with challenges. As the region teeters on the brink of a new geopolitical reality, the actions of external powers like Russia will continue to shape its trajectory. Whether Armenia can successfully pivot toward the West while maintaining its sovereignty and security in the face of Russian pressure will be a key question in the years to come.
