Former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who stepped down last week amid escalating protests over the controversial government job quota system, has leveled serious accusations against the United States, alleging its involvement in her ousting. In a startling revelation, Indian media outlets reported on Sunday that Hasina claimed her resignation was a result of her refusal to cede control of Saint Martin Island and allow US influence in the Bay of Bengal. The accusations have sent shockwaves through the international community, raising questions about the broader geopolitical implications and the future stability of Bangladesh.

Sheikh Hasina, a long-serving leader of the Awami League and one of the most influential figures in Bangladeshi politics, made her accusations public in a speech quoted by The Economic Times. She claimed that her continued tenure as Prime Minister hinged on relinquishing the sovereignty of Saint Martin Island, a small but strategically significant landmass in the northeastern Bay of Bengal.

“I could have remained in power if I had surrendered the sovereignty of Saint Martin Island and allowed America to hold sway over the Bay of Bengal,” Hasina stated. Her comments have ignited a firestorm of debate and speculation, with observers and analysts questioning the true extent of US involvement in her departure.

The small island of Saint Martin, covering just three square kilometers, might seem insignificant at first glance. However, its strategic importance cannot be overstated. According to The Print, the island’s value lies in its potential as a military base, particularly for monitoring activities in the Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s busiest maritime routes and a critical chokepoint for Chinese transportation.

Control over Saint Martin Island would not only provide a vantage point for surveillance over Chinese and Myanmar military movements but could also serve as a crucial listening post for India’s defense apparatus. The prospect of a US military presence on the island is seen as a direct challenge to Chinese influence in the region and could drastically alter the balance of power in South Asia.

Sheikh Hasina’s relationship with the West, particularly the United States, has been marked by tension and mutual suspicion. Throughout her tenure, Hasina maintained a robust stance against what she perceived as Western interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs. This often put her at odds with the US, especially over issues related to governance, human rights, and her government’s close ties with China.

Liu Zongyi, director of the Center for South Asia Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, emphasized this point in an interview with Global Times. He noted that Hasina’s refusal to align with US interests on various geopolitical issues likely contributed to Washington’s alleged efforts to destabilize her government. The possibility of a US-backed coup or political maneuvering in Dhaka has been a topic of speculation among experts and commentators, particularly in light of Hasina’s strong ties with China.

China’s growing influence in South Asia has been a contentious issue for both the US and India. Under Hasina, Bangladesh deepened its economic and military ties with Beijing, a move that did not sit well with New Delhi or Washington. China’s involvement in Bangladesh’s infrastructure development, including the construction of the Payra Port and investments in energy and telecommunications, has been seen as part of its broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The US, keen to counter China’s rise, may have viewed Hasina’s government as a barrier to its strategic goals in the region. Some analysts suggest that Washington sought to pressure Hasina into distancing Bangladesh from China, using various diplomatic channels to convey its displeasure. According to sources cited by The Print, a senior US diplomat’s visit to Dhaka in May was interpreted by some within the Awami League as an attempt to coerce Hasina into aligning with US interests, particularly in matters concerning China.

Protests and Anti-India Sentiment: Internal Struggle

The protests that led to Hasina’s resignation were initially sparked by widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s job quota system, which many saw as discriminatory and unfair. However, as the protests grew in size and intensity, they began to take on a broader anti-government and anti-India sentiment.

Hasina’s close relationship with India, which had been a cornerstone of her foreign policy, became a focal point of criticism among the protesters. Many accused her of being too accommodating to Indian interests, particularly in trade and water-sharing agreements, while neglecting Bangladesh’s own national interests. This anti-India rhetoric was fueled by opposition parties and radical groups, who saw an opportunity to galvanize public support against the government.

The resignation of Hasina has therefore created significant uncertainties for India. As The Economic Times noted, Bangladesh under Hasina was “New Delhi’s strongest ally” in the region, and the bilateral relations had reached unprecedented heights during her tenure. With her departure, there are growing concerns in New Delhi about the future trajectory of Bangladesh’s foreign policy and whether a new government might shift the country’s alignment away from India and towards China or other regional powers.

The US Perspective: Democracy Promotion or Strategic Interests?

The United States has a long history of promoting democracy and human rights as part of its foreign policy agenda. However, its actions in Bangladesh have raised questions about whether its primary motivation is the promotion of democratic values or the pursuit of strategic interests. Critics argue that the US has often overlooked human rights abuses or democratic backsliding when it suits its geopolitical objectives, as seen in its relationships with other authoritarian regimes around the world.

In the case of Bangladesh, the US has been critical of Hasina’s increasingly authoritarian style of governance, which has included crackdowns on opposition parties, restrictions on the media, and allegations of electoral fraud. However, these criticisms have often been tempered by the strategic importance of Bangladesh as a counterbalance to China in South Asia.

The allegations made by Hasina suggest that the US may have been willing to overlook its concerns about democracy in Bangladesh in exchange for strategic concessions, such as control over Saint Martin Island. If true, this would not be the first time that the US has been accused of prioritizing its geopolitical interests over its stated commitment to democratic values.

Future of Bangladesh

The resignation of Sheikh Hasina has plunged Bangladesh into a period of uncertainty, both domestically and in its foreign relations. The political vacuum created by her departure could lead to increased instability, with various factions vying for power and influence. The possibility of a new government with a different foreign policy orientation could have far-reaching implications for the region.

For India, the loss of Hasina as an ally is a significant blow. The bilateral relationship between India and Bangladesh had flourished under her leadership, with cooperation in areas such as security, trade, and energy. However, the rise of anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh could lead to a cooling of relations, particularly if the new government seeks to distance itself from New Delhi in favor of closer ties with China.

China, on the other hand, may see Hasina’s departure as an opportunity to further expand its influence in Bangladesh. With its deep pockets and willingness to invest in infrastructure projects, Beijing is well-positioned to fill any vacuum left by a potential downturn in India-Bangladesh relations. This could lead to a realignment of alliances in South Asia, with Bangladesh potentially becoming a more active participant in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

For the United States, the situation in Bangladesh is a test of its ability to manage complex geopolitical challenges in a region where it faces increasing competition from China. If the allegations made by Hasina are true, they could damage the US’s credibility as a promoter of democracy and raise questions about its long-term strategy in South Asia.

The international community is closely watching the developments in Bangladesh, with many expressing concern about the potential for increased instability in the region. The involvement of external powers such as the US and China in Bangladesh’s domestic politics has raised alarms about the broader implications for regional security and the balance of power in South Asia.

Experts have warned that the situation in Bangladesh could serve as a flashpoint for greater geopolitical competition between the US and China, with both sides seeking to expand their influence in the region. This competition could have ripple effects throughout South Asia, potentially exacerbating tensions between India and China, as well as complicating efforts to address other regional challenges, such as the ongoing Rohingya crisis in Myanmar.

Sheikh Hasina’s resignation marks a pivotal moment in Bangladesh’s history, with the country standing at a crossroads between different political, economic, and strategic paths. The allegations of US involvement in her removal, if proven true, would represent a significant escalation in the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China, with Bangladesh caught in the middle.

As Bangladesh navigates this period of transition, the choices made by its leaders will have profound implications not only for the future of the country but also for the broader dynamics of power and influence in South Asia. Whether the nation will continue on its current path or take a new direction remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the eyes of the world are now firmly fixed on Dhaka.