In a turn of events that has plunged Bangladesh into turmoil, Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina abruptly resigned after 15 years in power and fled to India on a military aircraft. This ignominious exit followed weeks of student-led protests against the government’s job quota system, which had devolved into brutal reprisals by security forces. The sight of jubilant protesters ransacking the prime minister’s residence marked the intensity of the anti-Hasina sentiment, drawing eerie parallels to the events in Sri Lanka in July 2022 when then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled amid similar protests.
For Bangladesh, a relatively young nation born out of the 1971 war of liberation from Pakistan, the ousting of Hasina has been described by many as the “second liberation” of the country. The irony of this development is not lost on anyone familiar with Bangladesh’s history, as Hasina’s father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was the founding father of the nation and fought against the oppressive, genocidal rule of the Pakistan army. The same charges of oppression are now being leveled against his daughter, marking a tragic repetition of history that adds to the trauma of Bangladesh and its collective memory.
In the wake of Hasina’s departure, Bangladesh army chief General Waker-uz-Zaman, who was appointed in June, has taken control of the troubled nation. He has assured the public that an interim government will soon be formed to guide the country through this period of upheaval. The country’s parliament has been dissolved to pave the way for fresh elections, one of the key demands of the student protesters. However, the army’s longstanding influential role in Bangladesh’s politics suggests that it will continue to exert significant control as the nation navigates this turbulent period.
Nobel Peace Prize winner and microfinance pioneer Muhammad Yunus has reportedly been appointed as the chief adviser to the interim government, a move that has been welcomed by the protesting students who are wary of another cycle of military rule. Despite Yunus’s appointment, the army will still play a crucial role in stabilizing the domestic political environment, which is rife with deep-seated divisions and a disillusioned public. The challenges facing the interim government are formidable, as it must address public discontent, mediate between bitterly opposed political factions, and stabilize a fragile economy.
A Divided Nation
Bangladesh, predominantly a Muslim nation, is deeply divided between those who support the old guard with ties to Pakistan and an ideology rooted in Islam, and the veterans of the 1971 liberation war who inherited Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s vision of a moderate, secular state. The two main political parties, the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), are now joined by the now-banned Jamaat-e-Islami party, which has emerged as a significant voice and could be included in the interim government.
The current protests, however, seem to have gained momentum in a more organic manner, with no clear political affiliation or direction other than the demand for better governance and free and fair elections. This organic nature of the protests may add to the difficulty of the interim government in managing public discontent and balancing the interests of various political factions. Meanwhile, the economy remains fragile, and major international backers have distanced themselves from Hasina’s administration due to her policies of domestic repression.
Hasina’s sudden departure is a significant setback for Indian foreign policy, given Delhi’s substantial support for her rule, which was largely driven by security and strategic considerations. As a result, India could find itself increasingly alienated from both Bangladesh and its people. The immediate priority for Delhi will be to ensure the personal safety and political status of Hasina, who is reportedly seeking refuge in India. Early reports suggest that the UK is reluctant to offer her full protection from potential investigations, while the United States has remained silent on rumors that Washington has revoked her visa.
If Hasina remains in India for an extended period, it will not be the first time she has sought refuge in the country. After her father was assassinated in 1975, then-Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi offered Hasina protection and helped her return to Bangladesh to strengthen the nascent democracy. The irony is stark: Hasina, who once symbolized the hope for a democratic Bangladesh, is now accused of stifling that very democracy with her increasingly autocratic rule. This is a heavy burden for her to bear, especially as the legacy of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman has been tarnished, symbolized poignantly by the toppling of his statue in Dhaka.
As noted by the British magazine The Economist, Hasina’s exit was as dramatic as it was unexpected. On August 5th, the Prime Minister fled the country she had ruled with an increasingly harsh grip since 2009, driven out by a vast display of people power on the streets of Dhaka. Her departure paves the way for a caretaker government, backed by the military and led by Muhammad Yunus. Many in Bangladesh are referring to this moment as a “second liberation,” though the true test will be whether the country can do more than merely oust an ageing autocrat; it must also cleanse a deeply corrupt political system.
The initial outlook appears somewhat promising: Bangladesh’s economy, despite the political turmoil, remains resilient, and civil society is robust. However, the country’s political problems are entrenched in venal political dynasties and enfeebled institutions that have failed to stand up to them. Yunus has a short window to set the country on a democratic path, but the challenges he faces are immense and will shape the lives of 173 million Bangladeshis, as well as influence the geopolitical rivalry between China, India, Russia, and the West.
Path Ahead for Bangladesh
Bangladesh has been in a state of turmoil for some time now. A rigged election in January had already confirmed that the country had descended into thuggish one-party rule. When mass student protests erupted in July against the reinstatement of reservations for government jobs favoring descendants of veterans of the 1971 war, the unrest quickly morphed into a broader uprising against Hasina’s government. The government’s brutal response, which included a shoot-to-kill curfew, resulted in over 450 deaths. Ultimately, the military withdrew its support for Hasina rather than engage in further bloodshed, leading to the ransacking of her palace and the vandalization of statues of her father.
Yunus, now 84, finds himself at the helm of a country in crisis. His immediate priority is to restore order and prevent the cycle of retributive violence that has plagued Bangladeshi politics in the past. This will require ensuring that the caretaker government, while led by technocrats, includes representatives from the protesting students and all major political parties, including the Awami League.
The challenges facing Yunus do not end there. Bangladesh is at risk of falling prey to Islamist extremism, as Pakistan has, if the political and economic instability continues. The financial situation remains precarious, with foreign reserves having halved since 2021, and Bangladesh recently took out a $4.7 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize its balance of payments. If the economic situation worsens, Bangladesh could become increasingly dependent on China for cheap loans and arms, which would destabilize relations with neighboring India and further erode democracy.
A fresh election could also restore the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) to power, but this presents its own risks. The BNP, which has suffered persecution under Hasina, is eager to take charge again, but the party also has a record of thuggery and cronyism. Yunus must work quickly to ensure that the caretaker government does not remain in power for too long, as it risks losing legitimacy or, worse, the military backers may be tempted to cling to power indefinitely.
To safeguard Bangladesh’s democracy, Yunus will need to clean up the institutions that Hasina captured, such as the electoral authority and the courts. The new government must also raise external funding to avoid a balance-of-payments crisis and press for a crucial new trade deal with the European Union. The existing generous terms under which Bangladesh exports its garments are set to expire in 2029, and the country’s broader status as one of the least developed countries, which grants it various trade and financing privileges, will also end in the coming years.
Need for Political Renewal
Perhaps the most important task for Yunus will be to encourage Bangladesh’s political system to open itself to new ideas and leaders, reflecting the aspirations of the country’s young, growing, and increasingly urban population. This will require ensuring that new political parties can form and campaign without harassment, and it will also necessitate asking the Awami League and the BNP to install new leaders who are not part of the founding dynasties. The sclerosis at the top of Bangladesh’s political hierarchy has poisoned the country’s politics, and without significant political renewal, the country risks repeating the cycles of corruption and authoritarianism that have characterized much of its history.
Bangladesh faces daunting problems, including severe vulnerability to climate change, but it also has significant advantages. Unlike many troubled nations, Bangladesh has an economy capable of rapid growth, driven by its burgeoning garment manufacturing industry. The country’s civil society remains strong, and there is a growing awareness among the population, particularly the youth, of the need for better governance and accountability. The events of the past few weeks have demonstrated the power of collective action in Bangladesh, and while the path ahead is fraught with challenges, there is also a renewed sense of hope that the country can finally break free from the cycles of oppression and political instability that have marked its past.
Sheikh Hasina’s fall from power in Bangladesh is a stark reminder of history’s cruel irony. Her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, fought for the liberation of Bangladesh from oppressive rule, only for his daughter to be ousted amidst similar accusations of authoritarianism and repression. The challenges facing Bangladesh are immense, but with a caretaker government led by a respected figure like Muhammad Yunus, there is a chance for the country to chart a new course. The road ahead will not be easy, but if Bangladesh can embrace political renewal and economic reform, it may yet fulfill the promise of its first liberation and move towards a more democratic and prosperous future.
