On September 27, 2024, Japan’s political landscape shifted as Shigeru Ishiba emerged victorious in a runoff election, defeating Sanae Takaichi, the leading female candidate, to become the head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). This victory paved the way for Ishiba to assume office as Japan’s prime minister on October 1, 2024, replacing Fumio Kishida following his official election by the Japanese parliament. Ishiba’s ascent to leadership signals a turning point for the LDP, as his election reflects a shift towards reform and a potential reimagining of Japan’s political future.
Ishiba’s victory, particularly as a non-conformist and non-faction leader, could be seen as a strategic move by the LDP to bolster its standing ahead of the national elections scheduled for November. His reputation for defense expertise, along with his vision for a reformed Japan, presents the LDP as a party prepared to adapt to the country’s evolving security needs and geopolitical challenges.
While Ishiba is expected to maintain continuity in many of the policies pursued by his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, particularly in the areas of defense and foreign policy, there are clear indications that his leadership will steer Japan toward a stronger and more independent security posture. Known for his defense background, Ishiba is likely to advocate for policies that bolster Japan’s military capabilities, including a stronger emphasis on defense autonomy, even as he continues to value Japan’s longstanding alliance with the United States.
One of Ishiba’s potential focus areas will be renegotiating the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the United States, which governs the legal status of U.S. military personnel stationed in Japan. Additionally, he has expressed interest in exploring collective security arrangements with other like-minded nations in the Asia-Pacific region, signaling a possible pivot toward greater multilateral security cooperation.
Perhaps the most significant and ambitious aspect of Ishiba’s foreign policy agenda is his proposal to establish a collective defense framework in the Asia-Pacific region that mirrors NATO’s structure. In an article penned for the Hudson Institute, Ishiba outlined his vision for a security alliance in the region that would enhance cooperation with the United States and explore the possibility of using nuclear weapons as a deterrent.
This proposal represents a radical shift from Japan’s post-World War II pacifist stance, which has long been enshrined in its Constitution. Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution renounces war and prohibits the use of force to settle international disputes. However, changing geopolitical dynamics—marked by an increasingly assertive China and the persistent nuclear threat posed by North Korea—have prompted a reevaluation of Japan’s defense strategies.
Ishiba’s advocacy for a NATO-like collective defense arrangement in Asia underscores the growing realization in Tokyo that Japan can no longer rely solely on the United States for its security. Instead, Japan must actively contribute to a regional security framework capable of countering the rising military power of China, Russia, and North Korea.
At the heart of Japan’s evolving defense policy is its concern over China’s military expansion and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea, coupled with its provocative actions near the disputed Senkaku Islands (claimed by both Japan and China), has heightened Japan’s sense of vulnerability. In recent months, Chinese warships have entered Japanese waters, and Chinese military aircraft have violated Japanese airspace, prompting Tokyo to take unprecedented measures, including sending its own naval vessels into the Taiwan Strait.
North Korea’s nuclear weapons program poses an equally significant challenge. Pyongyang’s continued development of ballistic missiles capable of striking Japan and its refusal to engage in meaningful denuclearization talks have made Japan acutely aware of the need to enhance its own defense capabilities.
In this context, Ishiba’s vision of a regional defense alliance represents a strategic response to the twin threats posed by China and North Korea. Such an alliance would not only enhance Japan’s security but also provide a framework for collective action in the face of regional aggression.
One of the more controversial aspects of Ishiba’s defense vision is his openness to discussing the potential stationing of U.S. nuclear weapons in Japan or the broader Asia-Pacific region. This idea marks a departure from Japan’s long-standing policy of avoiding nuclear weapons, even as it relies on the U.S. nuclear umbrella for deterrence.
The prospect of nuclear weapons in Japan has sparked significant debate. While Ishiba’s supporters argue that the nuclear deterrent is necessary to counter the growing threat from China and North Korea, critics warn that such a move could destabilize the region and provoke a dangerous arms race. China and Russia, in particular, are likely to view any increase in American nuclear presence in Asia as a direct threat to their security, leading to further tensions.
In response to these concerns, Ishiba has stressed the importance of maintaining Japan’s close defense ties with the United States while also advocating for a more robust and independent defense posture. He argues that Japan must be prepared to defend itself and contribute to regional security, particularly as the security landscape in East Asia continues to evolve.
Ishiba’s proposal for an Asian NATO has implications not only for Japan but also for other key players in the region, particularly India. Japan has long viewed India as a crucial partner in maintaining regional stability, and the two countries share a commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. However, India’s strategic autonomy presents a dilemma when it comes to joining a formal military alliance like the one proposed by Ishiba.
India, which has historically pursued a policy of non-alignment and has never been part of a military alliance, is likely to approach the idea of an Asian NATO with caution. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar recently made it clear that India does not share Japan’s vision for such an alliance, stating that India has always prioritized its strategic autonomy and would not become a treaty-bound ally.
While India remains a key member of the Quad, which includes Japan, Australia, and the United States, the country is unlikely to formalize its defense commitments through a NATO-style arrangement. Instead, India is more likely to continue its bilateral and multilateral security cooperation with Quad members, focusing on interoperability, joint military exercises, and reciprocal logistics agreements without the constraints of a mutual defense pact.
Even as India navigates its relationship with Japan and the broader regional security landscape, Japan is positioning itself as a more assertive and capable defense actor in the Indo-Pacific. Under Ishiba’s leadership, Japan is expected to deepen its cooperation with the United States while also enhancing its own military capabilities.
One of the clearest signals of Japan’s evolving defense posture is the planned “Keen Sword-25” military exercises, scheduled for the fall of 2024. These exercises, which will involve approximately 45,000 troops, underscore Japan’s commitment to integrating military capabilities with civilian infrastructure, such as ports and airports. Such preparations reflect a growing willingness in Tokyo to move away from the purely self-defense-oriented military policy that has dominated its post-war history.
Japan’s expanding defense role also signals a shift in its status within the U.S.-Japan alliance. Whereas Japan once played a more junior role in the alliance, it is now emerging as a global partner with increasing responsibilities in regional and international security.
Shigeru Ishiba’s election as prime minister marks a turning point in Japan’s approach to defense and foreign policy. While he is expected to maintain many of the policies of his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, Ishiba’s vision for Japan’s security future is characterized by a desire for greater autonomy and a more proactive role in regional defense.
Ishiba’s proposal for an Asian NATO and his openness to discussing nuclear deterrence reflect the growing pressures Japan faces from China and North Korea. As Japan grapples with these challenges, it is clear that the country is moving away from its pacifist post-war identity toward a more assertive and self-reliant defense posture.
However, Ishiba’s vision also raises important questions about the long-term stability of the Asia-Pacific region. As Japan redefines its role in regional security, it will need to navigate complex relationships with key players like India and manage the potential risks associated with nuclear deterrence and remilitarization. The decisions made under Ishiba’s leadership will shape not only Japan’s future but also the broader security landscape in East Asia.
