South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is scheduled to meet Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Tuesday, January 13, in Nara City, Japan, a week after his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as Seoul seeks to carefully balance relations with both neighbors.
The upcoming summit comes amid heightened diplomatic tension between Beijing and Tokyo, with analysts predicting that Takaichi may emphasize the stability of trilateral ties among the United States, Japan, and South Korea.
President Lee has pursued what he calls “pragmatic diplomacy,” aiming to maintain balanced relations with both China and Japan. Observers suggest this approach could facilitate cooperation in emerging business sectors, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and technology partnerships.
“Historically, disputes between China and Japan endure over long periods,” said Yang Kee-ho, a Japanese studies professor at South Korea’s Sungkonghoe University. “It is very likely that Sino-Japanese relations will deteriorate throughout Takaichi’s term in office.”
Tensions escalated after Takaichi stated in November that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute an existential threat to Japan, potentially prompting a military response. China considers Taiwan part of its territory, a claim rejected by the island’s government.
Amid Beijing’s ire, Japan may seek to strengthen diplomatic ties with South Korea, potentially through a strategic partnership, said Lee Chang-min, a Japan expert at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. “Not only has Japan’s relationship with China deteriorated, but the U.S. has also somewhat distanced itself from Japan regarding its Taiwan stance,” he noted.
While security and geopolitical issues are expected to arise during the meeting, South Korea is likely to maintain neutrality, analysts say. “Our relationship with Japan is as important as our relationship with China,” Lee emphasized during his recent state visit to China.
Core security concerns such as the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the fate of Japanese nationals abducted by North Korea are expected to feature on the agenda. However, analysts suggest that concrete agreements are more likely in economic and business sectors, including AI, semiconductor technologies, and facilitating business travel between the countries.
Lee’s security adviser, Wi Sung-lac, said the two leaders would discuss “areas directly related to people’s livelihoods … such as intellectual property and AI.”
The summit in Nara, Takaichi’s home prefecture, also provides Lee an opportunity to address regional development initiatives, part of Seoul’s broader push to spur growth outside the capital.
Despite the emphasis on pragmatic cooperation, historical tensions continue to cast a shadow over bilateral relations. Issues stemming from Japan’s colonization of Korea, including the treatment of Korean women forced into wartime military brothels, remain sensitive. While these topics are not currently at the forefront, some in South Korea argue they should remain high on the diplomatic agenda.
Lee’s visit to Japan will span two days, shorter than his four-day trip to China, and forms part of “shuttle diplomacy” agreed upon by the two countries last year. Yang Kee-ho noted that even if the summit yields no immediate tangible outcomes, “the most important thing is to keep the shuttle meetings going … and eventually reach concrete results.”
The meeting comes at a critical juncture in East Asian geopolitics, as Seoul navigates complex relationships with its two major neighbors, balancing economic opportunities with strategic caution in an increasingly tense regional environment.
