South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s political future hangs by a thread after his controversial attempt to impose martial law sparked widespread protests and condemnation. Thousands of demonstrators have taken to the streets of Seoul, calling for his resignation, but political analysts are skeptical that the embattled president will step down voluntarily.
On Tuesday, December 3, President Yoon declared martial law, citing the need to combat “enemies of the state, anti-state activities, and pro-North Korean sympathizers.” However, he provided no evidence to substantiate these claims. The declaration, seen as a drastic and unwarranted measure, faced swift backlash from lawmakers across the political spectrum.
By early Wednesday morning, an emergency vote in parliament forced Yoon to rescind the martial law order. The reversal underscored his weakened position as a leader with plummeting public approval and limited parliamentary support.
Dr. Yong-Chool Ha, director of the University of Washington’s Center for Korea Studies, noted that Yoon likely believed his actions were legally justified. “Yoon is a peculiar individual. He might have thought that he strictly followed the rules, even this time,” Ha said. “So, it’s very unlikely Yoon would accept his mistake.”
In the aftermath of Yoon’s failed bid, six opposition parties filed an impeachment motion against him. The motion, led by the Democratic Party, accuses the president of violating the constitution through his martial law declaration, which the opposition leader labeled a “coup attempt.”
The motion requires a two-thirds majority to pass, necessitating support from at least eight lawmakers from Yoon’s ruling People Power Party (PPP). Voting is expected to take place on Saturday, and the political stakes are high.
PPP leader Han Dong-hoon has vowed to block the impeachment motion, describing it as an effort to prevent “unprepared chaos to the public.” He has also urged Yoon to take responsibility for his actions by leaving the party.
Sung-yoon Lee, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, believes Yoon will not go down without a fight. “Yoon looks unlikely to step down and will likely contest the impeachment process,” Lee said, highlighting the president’s legal background as a former prosecutor.
Should the impeachment motion pass, South Korea’s Constitutional Court will have the final say on Yoon’s removal from office. The court currently has six judges, four of whom were appointed by Yoon, raising questions about impartiality in the proceedings.
Sung-yoon Lee noted that Yoon may have initially believed he had sufficient backing to justify his actions, but the fallout has been catastrophic. “It’s an own goal, an unforced error that has put his political career, his supporters, and his party at great risk,” Lee said.
Yoon’s actions have triggered mass protests, with thousands of South Koreans marching through Seoul to demand his resignation. The country has a painful history with military dictatorships, which ruled for nearly three decades and were marked by repression and violence. South Korea transitioned to democracy in 1988, and citizens view Yoon’s actions as a betrayal of their hard-won democratic freedoms.
“Martial law in South Korea conjures up images of tanks rolling over people, soldiers firing on unarmed civilians, and arbitrary arrests,” said Sung-yoon Lee. “This is seen as a significant setback, politically and psychologically, for the nation.”
Yoon’s political troubles began well before his martial law debacle. Since the ruling PPP suffered a crushing defeat in April’s general elections, his administration has struggled to pass key legislation, including his proposed budget bill. His approval ratings had already fallen to around 20% prior to this week’s events, further cementing his status as a lame-duck president.
Compounding his problems are scandals involving his wife, Kim Keon-hee, who faces allegations of corruption and influence peddling. These issues have added fuel to the public’s anger and diminished confidence in his leadership.
Despite his domestic struggles, Yoon has been lauded internationally for his efforts to strengthen ties with the United States, Japan, and Europe. He has been a key player in advancing the US-led alliance in the Indo-Pacific region and mending strained relations with Japan.
However, the martial law controversy has tarnished his global reputation. “The latest developments are a major shock and a source of disappointment for the US and other democracies around the world,” Lee said.
Observers expect North Korea to exploit the political crisis in South Korea. The two Koreas remain technically at war, and Yoon has maintained a hardline stance against Pyongyang during his tenure. North Korea has previously vilified Yoon, and experts predict it will use the current turmoil to ramp up propaganda.
“It would be atypical of North Korea to let this spectacular crisis in South Korea and Yoon go to waste,” Lee remarked. “I expect North Korea to be more assertive and provocative, using this moment to criticize Yoon’s leadership and policies.”
The coming days will be critical for Yoon’s political future. With the impeachment vote scheduled for Saturday, the outcome could determine whether South Korea sees its second-ever presidential impeachment. Should the motion pass, the ensuing legal battles will likely prolong the political uncertainty, potentially destabilizing the nation further.
For South Koreans, the crisis underscores the fragility of democracy in a country still grappling with the shadows of its authoritarian past. While Yoon’s presidency hangs in the balance, the nation watches closely, wary of the implications for its democratic institutions and global standing.
